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AAAAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

$AAOI·$9.6B·Semiconductors·Technology
$100.24-8.1%YTD+175.8%1Y+245.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 1,102 posts2026-07-10: 4,111 posts2026-07-11: 7,173 posts2026-07-12: 2,303 posts2026-07-13: 2,695 posts2026-07-14: 2,228 posts2026-07-15: 1,465 posts21,216+2%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
AAAAOI
$AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$100.24-8.11%21k posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AAOI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The AI-transceiver story is still real; the dilution and the tape are telling you to wait for Q2.

Applied Optoelectronics makes the optical transceivers that shuttle data across AI data-center networks. The stock has cooled sharply from May's peak as the market weighs whether the next-quarter guides land without another round of dilution.

Where the tension sits:

  • The demand story is credible: Q1 revenue grew 51% year-on-year to $151M and management guided Q2 to $180-198M with a 60-80% Q3 sequential jump — that's the transceiver market catching AI-networking spend, not narrative extrapolation.
  • The share-count math is the real risk: a fresh $600M at-the-market program is drip-selling stock, capping the equity's ability to snap back even if the operational story lands cleanly.
  • The business is still unprofitable: 30% gross margin against negative 12% operating margin and negative free cash flow — every operational miss raises the pressure to lean harder on the ATM, feeding the dilution loop.
  • Insiders keep selling in size: officers unloaded $8.4M since mid-June, including $6.9M by executive Fred Chang — zero offsetting buys, exactly the wrong signal into a stock trying to bottom.
  • Technicals are broken: sitting 38% below its 50-day with a fresh 2x short ETP now trading — shorts have a leveraged tool to lean on the tape.

The operational story is real. But until Q2 delivers cleanly at guided margins and the ATM pace slows, the tape is set up for lower lows. What reverses it is a Q2 print landing in the upper half of the guide.

What to watch: The Q2 print — revenue landing in the upper half of the $180-198M guide with gross margin holding at Q1 levels, plus any commentary on ATM pacing. Anything short seals the downside; a clean beat plus a slower ATM is what starts the reversal.

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠69 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

Applied Optoelectronics chatter frames a stock trying to bottom after a roughly 45% drop from May's peak. Bulls point to Q1 revenue of $151M (+51% YoY), a Q2 guide of $180-198M with management flagging a 60-80% Q3 sequential increase, Russell 1000 inclusion, and cleanroom expansion positioning the company for hyperscale orders. Rosenblatt pushed back on B. Riley's bearish note that AI-optimization flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%, arguing they've already modeled it and rising XPU counts offset any per-XPU cut. Bears counter with a $600M ATM, insider selling, and the launch of a fresh 2x short ETP on AAOI, plus a general 'photonics has traded poorly for 1-2 months' backdrop tied to CPO delay fears and China capacity scares.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AAOI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and manufactures fiber-optic transceivers and lasers for broadband access and hyperscale data center networking.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AAOI.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $AAOI

Partial — Designs and manufactures fiber-optic transceivers and lasers for broadband access and hyperscale data center networking; exposure exists but is diluted by diverse end markets and revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+54.2%YTD
+96.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-310.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-3.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-11.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
28.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.07$-0.05-42.9%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$-0.01$-0.12+91.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.09$-0.10+10.0%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$-0.16$-0.08-100.0%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $0.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$151.1M+51.4%29.1%-8.6%$-0.19$-143.6M
Q4 FY25$134.3M+33.9%31.2%-8.6%$-0.03$74.5M
Q3 FY25$118.6M+82.1%28.0%-15.3%$-0.28$-78.8M
Q2 FY25$103.0M+137.9%30.3%-15.5%$-0.16$-91.0M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.0B$933.0M – $1.2B$1.03$0.65 – $1.424
FY27$2.8B$2.4B – $3.2B$5.73$4.50 – $6.943
FY28$4.2B$3.4B – $5.1B$11.60$8.71 – $14.801

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.38%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-37.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 75.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today13.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.695-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$488KSellJun 18Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks6.0K sh$1.0MSellJun 17Chang Hung-lun (fred)*** See Remarks40.3K sh$6.9MSellJun 12Stefan J. MurryCFO33.0K sh$5.5MSellJun 12Chang Hung-lun (fred)*** See Remarks34.0K sh$5.7MSellJun 12Lin Chih-hsiang (thompson)CEO59.0K sh$9.8MSellJun 12Yeh Shu-hua (joshua)*** See Remarks28.8K sh$4.8MSellJun 12David C Kuo*** See Remarks29.2K sh$4.9MSellJun 10Stefan J. MurryCFO4.0K sh$686KSellJun 5Chang Hung-lun (fred)*** See Remarks4.0K sh$800K
1–10 of 35
+ 35 other (17 inkinds · 16 awards · 1 other · 1 gift) in window

See when $AAOI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) entered into a $94.1 million design-build agreement with LCC3 Solution Inc. on June 25, 2026, for construction of its OMD 3 (FAB4) cleanroom expansion in Houston — covering approximately 195,591 sq ft of ISO Class 6 cleanroom, 36,500 sq ft of office, and 73,780 sq ft of operations space. Payments are progress-based with 10% retainage withheld until final completion, monthly billing, and liquidated damages capped at $4.9 million for milestone delays. This is a material capital commitment in support of expanded photonics manufacturing capacity that will weigh on near-term cash flow.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) entered into a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and created a direct financial obligation (Item 2.03) per an 8-K filed June 16, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific agreement counterparty, terms, or obligation amount are disclosed.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 113
AI summary

Robert James Flanagan filed a Form 3 initial beneficial ownership statement as a newly appointed Director of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI), with an event date of June 4, 2026. The filing reports no securities beneficially owned — neither direct nor derivative holdings. This is a routine administrative director-entry filing with no market impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an equity incentive plan. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

AAOI entered into a equity distribution agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-05-14). Counterparty: Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and Needham & Company, LLC (collectively. Size: approximately $600 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 14424B5
AI summary

AAOI filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-14, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $223.10 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 138-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

AAOI entered into a material definitive agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-05-13). Counterparty: Hightower Phase I Owner, LLC. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

8-KMaterial eventMay 88-K — Item 4.01
AI summary

AAOI filed an 8-K (other items) dated 2026-05-08. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): May 4, 2026 Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 001-36083 76-0533927 (State of incorporation) (Commission File Number) (I.R.S.

+ 34 other (9 S-8 POSs · 7 8-Ks · 5 13Gs · 3 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Applied Optoelectronics Announces Date of Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Callglobenewswire.com·16h agoAAOI Expands Texas Manufacturing to Scale AI Optics Productionzacks.com·19h agoAAOI vs. MXL: Which AI Data Center Infrastructure Stock Has an Edge?zacks.com·21h agoApplied Optoelectronics Falls 12%, Coherent and Lumentum Slide as AI Optics Trade Cools247wallst.com·2d agoTradr's 2X Short Leveraged ETFs on AAOI and ORCL Begin Tradingprnewswire.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAI Photonics & Co-Packaged Optics

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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