Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Lumentum is one of the pure-play optical-component leaders (transceivers, laser modules, InP wafer capacity) that's ridden the AI-datacenter wave from below $100 to over $750. The stock is cooling on CPO-delay reports and China capacity scares while the InP-expansion story keeps bulls anchored.

• The revenue trajectory is real and accelerating: trailing gross margin held at 38%, operating margin 9.5%, and FY26 revenue growth is running above 30% YoY — the optical-photonics thesis is showing up in the P&L as AI capex converts to shipping product.
• Valuation has priced most of the runway: 139x TTM P/E and 27x sales at $752 spot puts LITE at the top of the optical-multiple range — the InP capacity expansion Lumentum flagged is what the multiple requires to prove out; anything less and the multi-year rally compresses.
• Rosenblatt's contrarian read is credible: the sell-side note that stocks 'traded poorly for the last 1-2 months' due to CPO delays but framing the setup as bottom-defense aligns with $5.9M of call flow into LITE — real conviction on a coiling snap-back into the print.

The August 11 Q4 FY26 earnings are the near-term arbiter — a clean revenue print above the $500M+ implied Q4 pace, InP-capacity guidance, and hyperscaler-customer commentary extend the setup back through $800. A CPO-delay confirmation or China-capacity reset drops the tape into the $650 support.