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LILITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingStrong bullish X conversationBacked by solid revenue growth
$LITE·$69B·Communication Equipment·Technology
$914.76+2.2%YTD+123.9%1Y+590.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 180 posts2026-08-22: 72 posts1,490+5%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
LILITE
$LITELumentum Holdings Inc.
$914.76+2.21%1.5k posts+5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LITE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

The AI-optics winner NVIDIA just invested in — Lumentum went from telecom-adjacent laggard to a name management guides to $40 of FY28 EPS on locked-in demand through 2030.

Lumentum makes lasers and optical components for AI data centers, telecom networks and 3D-sensing consumer devices. The stock has 6.6x'd over the past year as the AI-optics thesis — that every hyperscaler cluster needs vastly more optical interconnect — converted into real earnings and locked-in demand through the end of the decade.

  • Revenue growth is compounding: Q3 was $808M, up 90% YoY, with operating margin expanding to 22% from ~1% a year ago — this is a business converting AI capex into P&L, not a story stock still waiting to be believed.
  • Management's FY28 EPS guide is the crux: CEO Michael Hurlston publicly guided to $40 of FY2028 earnings power against a $33 consensus, on OCS and continuous-wave laser demand locked through 2030 — a rare public over-consensus signal from a company running well.
  • NVIDIA's $2B investment is more than validation: it's a strategic anchor that assures the ramp and gives buyers a reason to underwrite the $50-60B FY28 revenue path bulls model.
  • The recent 6% pullback is a cool-off, not a break: an insider sold ~40k shares for $33M, but the buyer side saw new institutional positions add (Bluefin Capital), and the tape sits at 80% of the 52w range — no signal of distribution.

The setup keeps extending as long as OCS and CW-laser demand keeps translating into P&L and NVIDIA's next-gen platform continues to pull optics content — November 3 earnings is when the FY27 shipment ramp becomes visible. What invalidates: a delay in the CPO transition schedule, or a customer-concentration disclosure that reveals the ramp rests on one hyperscaler.

Agrees with X sentimentBulls' Hurlston $40-EPS framing, $2B NVDA investment and demand-locked-through-2030 narrative are all validated by the print — 90% revenue growth, margin expansion, $1,300-$2,000 target range. The insider-sale headline is a real optical concern but sits inside a broad-based accumulation picture.

What to watch: November 3 Q1 FY27 earnings — need OCS and CW-laser shipment ramp visible in revenue and Hurlston's $40 FY28 EPS guide reaffirmed. A CPO-transition delay or customer-concentration disclosure would invalidate the extension.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q1 FY27 earnings

ai optics leadernvidia strategic investmentdemand locked multiyearinsider selling

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment104 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Overwhelmingly bullish. CEO Michael Hurlston's Deutsche Bank guide of '$40 of earnings power' in FY2028 versus sell-side ~$33 dominates, alongside a 'huge uptick in our order book,' capacity 'about 30% behind what our customers want,' and LTAs locking CW-laser supply through 2030. Bulls also cite the $87M InP wafer reservation with $AXTI through 2031 as crowding out competitors. Skeptics flag Form 4 insider selling and a 42x PE stretched versus cheaper $MU.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LITE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes optical components, transceivers, and 3D sensing lasers for telecom networks and consumer electronics.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Communication Equipment sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LITE.

Communication Equipment · Technology

AI networking — the Ethernet and InfiniBand infrastructure connecting GPU clusters — is the high-growth demand driver; CSCO's AI backlog and Arista's data center wins confirm the cycle. Traditional enterprise networking refresh is slower; AI infrastructure is where the incremental spending is.

What this means for $LITE

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; Lumentum Holdings Inc.

Top industry ETF

$IYZiShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF
+27.1%YTD
+37.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
139.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
3.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
9.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
26.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
30.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
37.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 11, 2026$3.23$2.97+8.8%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$2.37$2.27+4.4%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$1.67$1.41+18.4%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$1.10$1.03+6.8%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $4.23

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$808.4M+90.1%44.2%21.6%$1.99$79.1M
Q2 FY26$665.5M+65.5%36.1%9.7%$1.10$202.9M
Q1 FY26$533.8M+58.4%34.0%1.3%$0.06$-18.3M
Q4 FY25$480.7M+55.9%33.3%-1.7%$3.06$10.1M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 18 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.0B$3.0B – $3.0B$8.23$7.63 – $8.5516
FY27$5.7B$5.0B – $6.1B$18.58$15.27 – $20.6718
FY28$8.8B$4.8B – $10.6B$29.53$25.00 – $32.3817
FY29$12.2B$9.4B – $13.6B$44.84$31.66 – $51.531

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.80%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+9.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+33.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 71.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.515-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 27Yuen WupenPresident500 sh$479KSellAug 27Michael E. HurlstonCEO548 sh$525KSellAug 26Yuen WupenPresident500 sh$441KSellAug 25Vincent RetortSEE REMARKS38.7K sh$33.0MSellAug 25Jae KimSVP, GENERAL COUNSEL12.0K sh$10.2MSellAug 25Yuen WupenPresident500 sh$428KSellAug 24Yuen WupenPresident500 sh$412KSellAug 21Yuen WupenPresident500 sh$449KSellAug 20Yuen WupenPresident1.5K sh$1.2MSellAug 20Vincent RetortSEE REMARKS2.5K sh$2.1M
1–10 of 25
+ 49 other (26 inkinds · 23 awards) in window

See when $LITE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) disclosed that Vincent Retort, Executive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality, informed the company on July 27, 2026 of his planned retirement effective in October 2026. Retort entered a 2-year consulting agreement following retirement, during which his existing equity awards will continue to vest under their original schedules. The consulting arrangement is designed to ensure continuity; continuing vesting during a consulting term is unusual and represents incremental equity cost to the company.

8-KUnregistered equity saleJun 18-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale
AI summary

Lumentum entered exchange agreements on May 29, 2026 with holders of its 0.50% Convertible Notes due 2028 to exchange approximately $650.4 million in principal for approximately 5.0 million common shares, with net incremental dilution of approximately 0.8 million shares; closing expected June 4, 2026. Material debt reduction: $650M eliminated at low dilution cost; accretive to the balance sheet.

8-KUnregistered equity saleApr 88-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale
AI summary

LITE filed an 8-K (Item 3.02) dated 2026-04-08. (the “Company”) entered into separate privately-negotiated exchange agreements (the “Exchange Agreements”) with certain holders of its outstanding 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 (the “2026 Notes”) and 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes” and, together with the 2026 Notes, collectively, the “Notes”), pursuant to which t.

+ 12 other (7 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-K · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Bluefin Capital Management LLC Takes $934,000 Position in Lumentum Holdings Inc. $LITEdefenseworld.net·2d agoAs Lumentum Stock Soars, a Company Insider Dumps Nearly 40,000 Shares Worth $33 Millionfool.com·3d agoOptics Stocks Slide as AI Hardware Trade Cools: Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum Fall 6%, Coherent Drops 5%247wallst.com·3d agoCoherent, Lumentum, and Other Hot AI Stocks Are Falling Today. They Shouldn't Be.barrons.com·4d agoLumentum Sees AI Data Centers Driving Major Optical Connectivity Growthmarketbeat.com·4d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Best PerformersAI InfrastructureQuantum ComputingAI Photonics & Co-Packaged Optics

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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