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TDTDG

TransDigm Group Incorporated

$TDG·$69B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$1171.74-1.2%YTD-4.1%1Y-10.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 3 posts2026-08-23: 2 posts270%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
TDTDG
$TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated
$1,171.74-1.20%27 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TDG, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

TransDigm Q3 blowout — revenue $2.74B +23% YoY, aftermarket +17%, EBITDA margin 52.8%, $1B buyback (1.4% mcap) atypical acceleration.

TransDigm Group is a $68.5B aerospace-parts oligopoly compounder. Q3 blowout plus atypical $1B share-repurchase acceleration.

How it reads:

  • Growth is real: Q1 revenue +18.3% YoY to $2.54B, Q4 was +9.3% — accelerating aftermarket compounding.
  • Margins are premium: 46.5% operating margin, 2.7% FCF yield, 14.5% ROIC — the ROIC is the specific compounder tell.
  • Valuation is full: 35.6x PE, 7.3x sales, 20.4x EV/EBITDA — priced as premium aerospace compounder.
  • Position is weakening: 18th percentile 52w, 5.7% below 50-day, 6.9% below 200-day on 46% baseline volume — pulling back within the range.
  • The Q3 blowout: revenue $2.74B vs $2.68B est (+23% YoY, +13% organic), adj EPS $10.87 vs $10.30 (+13%), EBITDA margin 52.8%, commercial aftermarket +17%, FY26 guide raised.
  • Repurchased ~$1B of shares (1.4% of market cap) in one quarter — atypical acceleration for TDG.
  • July 27 Prince & Izant acquisition — the specific bolt-on M&A tell.
  • Insider signal is heavy structured: $17.36M S-Sale (Howley $12.5M, Reiss $4.8M) plus M-Exempt matching — the exercises are RSU-driven, but Howley's discretionary distribution at $10.87 EPS is worth flagging.

The Nov 11 print is the test — reiterated FY26 EPS $12.10 estimate plus specific commentary on aftermarket-mix trajectory extends the run; a commercial-aftermarket miss plus continued Howley distribution drops to $1,050 support.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the bullish anchors (Q3 blowout revenue $2.74B vs $2.68B est +23% YoY +13% organic, adj EPS $10.87 vs $10.30 +13%, EBITDA margin 52.8%, commercial aftermarket +17%, FY26 guide raised, repurchased ~$1B shares 1.4% of mcap in one quarter as atypical acceleration) map to real signals; the honest add is Howley's $12.5M S-Sale (after M-Exempt exercise) is discretionary distribution at the print worth naming.

What to watch: Nov 11 earnings — reiterated FY26 EPS $12.10 estimate plus specific commentary on aftermarket-mix trajectory extends the run; a commercial-aftermarket miss plus continued Howley distribution drops to $1,050 support.

On the calendar: 2026-11-11 — Q4 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment40 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-11

TransDigm posters celebrate a Q3 blowout — revenue $2.74B vs $2.68B est (+23% YoY, +13% organic), adj EPS $10.87 vs $10.30 (+13%), EBITDA margin 52.8%, commercial aftermarket +17%, and FY26 guide raised. Repurchased ~$1B of shares (1.4% of market cap) in one quarter, an atypical acceleration for TDG. Sentiment is decisively bullish on both fundamentals and capital-return acceleration.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TDG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs and acquires proprietary sole-source aircraft components with strong aftermarket pricing power.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TDG.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

Defense budget tailwinds — NATO spending commitments and Pentagon procurement acceleration — support backlogs at prime contractors. Commercial space is a separate driver: launch cadence and satellite constellations are pulling RKLB and LUNR on their own momentum, independent of traditional defense spending.

What this means for $TDG

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; TransDigm Group Incorporated is a global aerospace enterpris.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+16.3%YTD
+15.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
35.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
14.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
7.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-24.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
59.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-3.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$10.87$10.30+5.5%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$9.85$9.46+4.1%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$8.23$8.10+1.6%
Q3 2025Nov 12, 2025$10.82$10.04+7.8%
Next earningsWed, Nov 11·consensus EPS $12.10

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$2.5B+18.3%59.4%46.3%$9.20$64.0M
Q1 FY26$2.3B+13.9%56.7%45.6%$6.62$772.0M
Q4 FY25$2.4B+11.5%60.3%47.6%$7.75$441.0M
Q3 FY25$2.2B+9.3%59.5%46.4%$8.47$573.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$10.4B$10.4B – $10.4B$40.04$39.32 – $40.5715
FY27$11.4B$11.1B – $11.6B$47.00$45.12 – $50.9514
FY28$12.2B$11.8B – $13.2B$54.00$38.49 – $64.4414
FY29$12.7B$12.4B – $13.1B$61.52$59.83 – $64.067
FY30$13.6B$13.3B – $14.0B$68.13$66.26 – $70.947

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.14%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-6.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 55.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.915-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 18Howley W NicholasDirector10.1K sh$12.5MSellAug 17Joel ReissCOO3.9K sh$4.8MSellJul 20Howley W NicholasDirector9.2K sh$11.2MSellJul 15Joel ReissCOO3.8K sh$4.6MSellJun 18Howley W NicholasDirector8.5K sh$11.2MSellJun 15Joel ReissCOO3.9K sh$5.0MSellMay 18Howley W NicholasDirector180 sh$207KSellMay 15Joel ReissCOO71 sh$81KSellApr 20Howley W NicholasDirector10.1K sh$12.8MSellApr 15Joel ReissCOO939 sh$1.2M
1–10 of 11
+ 21 other (12 exempts · 8 awards · 1 other) in window

See when $TDG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 33
AI summary

Krasik Irina Igorevna (Last) (First) (Middle) 1350 EUCLID AVENUE SUITE 1600 (Street) CLEVELAND OHIO 44115 (City) (State) (Zip) UNITED STATES (Country) 2. Date of Event Requiring Statement (Month/Day/Year) 06/22/2026 3. Issuer Name and Ticker or Trading Symbol TransDigm Group INC [ TDG ] 3a. Foreign Trading Symbol 5. If Amendment, Date of Original Filed (Month/Day/Year) 4. Relationship of Reporting Person(s) to Issuer (Check all applicable) X Director 10% Owner Officer (give title below) Other (specify below) 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: Remarks: This Form 3 is being filed one day late due to delays in obtaining EDGAR access codes for the reporting person. No securities are beneficially owned. /s/ Rachel L. Quinlan as attorney in fact for Irina Krasik 08/03/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26) filed an initial statement of beneficial ownership (Form 3) as a Director of TDG, with an event date of 1473. This is a routine insider-ownership disclosure with no indication of open-market purchases or activist intent.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 248-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

TransDigm Group Incorporated appointed Irina Krasik to its Board of Directors effective July 22, 2026. Krasik is a Managing Director at Stellex Capital Management (since 2021), with prior roles at Bregal Investments, The Wicks Group, The Carlyle Group, and Merrill Lynch, and an MBA from Harvard Business School. She will receive standard non-employee director compensation; no committee assignments were made at this time, and no related-party transactions exist. This is a routine board addition bringing M&A and private-equity governance expertise with no immediate financial impact.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 178-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

TDG entered into a indenture (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-17). Size: approximately $1,500 million. Rate: 6.125%. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

TDG filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-15. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 148-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

TDG reported period ending 2026-04-14 financial results (8-K Item 2.02). Investors should review the full earnings press release and any management guidance for forward outlook.

8-KShareholder voteMar 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 13 other (5 13Gs · 3 routine 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TransDigm Group: A Premium Option For Private-Equity-Like Exposureseekingalpha.com·2d agoWhat Makes TransDigm (TDG) a New Buy Stockzacks.com·4d agoIs TransDigm's Commercial Aftermarket Strength Driving Growth?zacks.com·4d agoBroad Run Investment Management LLC Buys New Shares in Transdigm Group Incorporated $TDGdefenseworld.net·7d agoIf Boeing Ramps Up Production, These Suppliers May Win Bigmarketbeat.com·8d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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