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SMSMTC

Semtech Corporation

$SMTC·$17B·Semiconductors·Technology
$144.21-10.0%YTD+138.9%1Y+106.6%
Price updated 16h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
SMSMTC
$SMTCSemtech Corporation
$144.21-10.01%283 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $SMTC on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

283X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $SMTC's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-16

Semtech posters see one of the strongest cup formations in semis — a multi-month base with accelerating revenue and EPS growth and AI data-center networking/optical connectivity as the tailwind. Traders flag a big daily-base breakout climbing the right side toward all-time highs and the CANSLIM scanner pulling it up fresh. No bear voice.

Read what X is saying about $SMTC

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $SMTC — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Semtech has nearly tripled YTD on AI-connectivity exposure — chart is a textbook cup and the setup is clean into Nov 23.

Semtech makes mixed-signal and analog chips — importantly, high-speed optical and copper connectivity components that go into AI-data-center networking. The stock has rerated hard as that mix shifted from story to numbers.

  • The business inflection is real: Q1 revenue +16% YoY at an 11% operating margin and ROIC of 10% — profitability has returned alongside the AI-connectivity mix shift, which is why the sell-side has turned constructive.
  • 52-week range position is 97% with vol multiplier 0.93 — accelerating on average volume says committed holders are not selling into strength, which supports continued trend.
  • At 12.9x sales and PE still negative on TTM comparisons, the stock is paying forward for the AI-connectivity ramp — a reasonable price only if the Nov 23 print confirms the trajectory.

Nov 23 Q3 is the gate — any explicit AI-data-center connectivity revenue disclosure plus continued operating-margin expansion extends the move. A guide reset or margin compression and the stock has downside from a 52-week-high setup.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right technical read — cup-and-handle formation, big daily-base breakout, CANSLIM scanner inclusion — and the AI-data-center-connectivity framing is substantively supported by recent sell-side revisions.

What to watch: Nov 23 Q3 — AI-data-center connectivity revenue, operating-margin trajectory, and any 2027 guide. A margin compression or guide reset is the clear invalidator from an all-time-high setup.

On the calendar: 2026-11-23 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $SMTC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs analog and mixed-signal semiconductors including LoRa IoT chips, optical data communication ICs, and video broadcast products.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SMTC.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural driver with Blackwell supply still packaging-constrained. Jensen Huang publicly named memory bandwidth as AI's next bottleneck, reinforcing HBM3e pricing power. AVGO custom ASIC demand broadens AI beneficiaries beyond NVDA's GPU allocation.

What this means for $SMTC

Partial — Designs analog and mixed-signal semiconductors including LoRa IoT chips, optical data communication ICs, and video broadcast products.; auto/industrial analog mix has limited direct AI capex exposure but benefits from overall fab utilization tightening.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+64.5%YTD
+63.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-422.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-5.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
51.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 25, 2026$0.71$0.61+15.6%
Q1 2026May 26, 2026$0.51$0.45+12.4%
Q4 2025Mar 16, 2026$0.44$0.43+2.3%
Q3 2025Nov 24, 2025$0.48$0.44+7.9%
Next earningsMon, Nov 23·consensus EPS $1.06

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY27$291.0M+15.9%51.9%10.6%$0.29$28.0M
Q4 FY26$274.4M+9.3%50.3%11.2%$-0.32$47.4M
Q3 FY26$267.0M+12.7%51.7%11.9%$-0.03$44.6M
Q2 FY26$257.6M+19.6%52.0%10.6%$-0.31$42.0M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.0B$933.5M – $1.3B$1.70$1.69 – $2.149
FY27$1.5B$1.5B – $1.5B$3.48$3.38 – $3.6912
FY28$1.9B$1.8B – $2.0B$5.84$5.20 – $6.1012
FY29$2.5B$2.1B – $3.7B$8.10$6.71 – $9.538

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.59%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+18.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 92.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today10.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.425-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 7Green Jason ElliotEVP and CCO2.8K sh$527KSellOct 2Hong Q HouCEO2.0K sh$382KSellOct 1Mark LinCFO967 sh$173KSellSep 23Paul V WalshDirector500 sh$86KSellSep 16Rodolpho C CardenutoDirector5.3K sh$878KSellSep 10Mark LinCFO683 sh$109KSellSep 4Ruehl Julie GarciaDirector1.5K sh$218KSellSep 4Hong Q HouCEO2.0K sh$277KSellAug 19Paul V WalshDirector500 sh$68KSellAug 17Asaf SilbersteinCOO5.0K sh$750K
1–10 of 29
+ 43 other (20 exempts · 14 inkinds · 8 awards · 1 gift) in window

See when $SMTC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDOct 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 258-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Semtech reported Q2 fiscal 2027 financial results for the quarter ended July 26, 2026 via press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The filing also includes a Reg FD disclosure referencing forward-looking statements in the same press release. Routine quarterly earnings announcement; full results and guidance are in the attached exhibit.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 68-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Semtech Corporation entered into a new Credit Agreement on July 6, 2026 with Morgan Stanley as administrative agent, consisting of a $360 million revolving credit facility (undrawn at closing) plus an uncommitted incremental term loan capacity capped at $332 million or 100% of Consolidated EBITDA. The facility replaces or supplements existing debt and will be used for working capital, general corporate purposes, and permitted acquisitions. This is an accretive refinancing/liquidity upgrade — the $360M revolver provides significant undrawn liquidity headroom for Semtech's operations and potential M&A.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Semtech Corporation amended and restated its Executive Severance Plan on June 2, 2026 to add non-Change-in-Control severance: eligible executives terminated without cause or resigning for good reason outside a CiC window receive 1× base salary + pro-rata target bonus + 12-month COBRA, plus accelerated vesting of deferred compensation. The previous plan only covered CiC-related terminations. This expands executive protection and marginally increases contingent compensation costs; otherwise routine.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 268-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) announced Q1 FY2027 financial results (fiscal quarter ended April 26, 2026) via press release on May 26, 2026; actual financial metrics are in the furnished Exhibit 99.1 and not visible in the 8-K body. Item 7.01 additionally covers forward-looking guidance. This is a standard quarterly earnings and guidance disclosure.

+ 14 other (6 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Semtech Lifts Q3 Outlook, Maps $3.2B FY2030 Path on AI Data Center Growthmarketbeat.com·18h agoSemtech Outlines Data Center Growth Strategy at Analyst Daybusinesswire.com·1d agoRep. Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. Acquires Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (NYSE:TSM)defenseworld.net·2d agoDid Semtech Corporation Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?prnewswire.com·3d agoCan Semtech's 1.6T Ramp Accelerate its Data Center Growth?zacks.com·3d ago

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Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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