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SMSMTC

Semtech Corporation

$SMTC·$13B·Semiconductors·Technology
$135.22-4.3%YTD+79.4%1Y+181.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 87 posts2026-07-09: 143 posts2026-07-10: 176 posts2026-07-11: 73 posts2026-07-12: 145 posts2026-07-13: 189 posts2026-07-14: 89 posts906+22%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
SMSMTC
$SMTCSemtech Corporation
$135.22-4.34%906 posts+22%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $SMTC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

AI-connectivity semi up 181% in a year — cluster of insider selling into an August print worth noticing.

Semtech makes analog and mixed-signal chips for data-center networking, IoT (LoRa wireless), and consumer power — the analog complement to the digital-AI story hyperscalers are building. The stock is up 181% over the past year on data-center networking demand, and now cooling as insiders take profits.

  • Revenue grew 16% YoY to $258M last quarter with an 11% operating margin — solid growth, but the multiple is running well ahead of the operating trajectory, which is why the -4.3% today matters.
  • Trades at 13x TTM sales with an eye-watering ~430x TTM P/E — trailing multiples are inflated by one-off charges; forward P/E on FY27 consensus of ~$2.50 is closer to 55x, still full for the growth rate.
  • Multiple officer sales in the last two weeks: EVP Silberstein $1.1M on July 10, CEO Hou $266K on July 14 plus another $534K on July 6, Green $294K — a genuine cluster of officer distributions at the highs.
  • The new $360M revolver plus $115M term loan with Morgan Stanley (July 6) refinances the balance sheet for growth capex — real forward investment, but also more leverage on a name at 181% trailing return.
  • 52-week position 68th percentile with position vs 50-day MA -8% — the tape has cooled from the peak; the setup rewards a clean beat and punishes any softness.

August 24 Q2 earnings is where the AI-networking narrative gets validated: revenue growth accelerating past 15% plus operating margin expansion above 12% is what restarts the run; a modest beat with unchanged guide plus continued officer selling is where the multiple compresses hard. Real AI-networking exposure, real insider distribution — the setup is asymmetric and event-heavy.

Differs from X sentimentThe bullish X 'analog solution for a digital world' framing is directionally right on the setup, but the ~$2M cluster of officer selling in the past two weeks is a real signal the crowd is treating as noise. 'Community broadly long' at 68th percentile of 52-week range with fresh officer distributions is the exact setup where disappointments cascade.

What to watch: Aug 24 Q2 earnings — need revenue growth accelerating past 15% and operating margin above 12%. A modest beat with unchanged guide plus more officer selling is where the multiple compresses hard.

On the calendar: 2026-08-24 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Semtech chatter is bullish. Community frames SMTC as 'analog solution for a digital world' providing diverse data-center networking products. Positioning uniquely at the intersection of scale-up, scale-out and scale-across. Community members (@KawzInvests + @crux_capital_) both signaling to listen. Product mix, positioning, pre-inflection setup - community broadly long despite recent selloff.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $SMTC

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  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs analog and mixed-signal semiconductors including LoRa IoT chips, optical data communication ICs, and video broadcast products.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $SMTC.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $SMTC

Direct beneficiary — Designs analog and mixed-signal semiconductors including LoRa IoT chips, optical data communication ICs, and video broadcast products; the company is structurally positioned to capture the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+60.1%YTD
+103.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-422.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.2%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-5.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
51.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.9Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 26, 2026$0.51$0.45+12.4%
Q4 2025Mar 16, 2026$0.44$0.43+2.3%
Q3 2025Nov 24, 2025$0.48$0.44+7.9%
Q2 2025Aug 25, 2025$0.41$0.40+2.5%
Next earningsMon, Aug 24·consensus EPS $0.62

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY27$291.0M+15.9%51.9%10.6%$0.29$28.0M
Q4 FY26$274.4M+9.3%50.3%11.2%$-0.32$47.4M
Q3 FY26$267.0M+12.7%51.7%11.9%$-0.03$44.6M
Q2 FY26$257.6M+19.6%52.0%10.6%$-0.31$42.0M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.0B$979.5M – $1.2B$1.70$1.69 – $1.949
FY27$1.4B$1.3B – $1.4B$2.66$2.56 – $2.7610
FY28$1.7B$1.6B – $1.8B$3.89$3.21 – $4.1910
FY29$2.2B$2.2B – $2.2B$5.95$3.13 – $8.026

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.68%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-8.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+40.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 92.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.315-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 10Hong Q HouCEO2.0K sh$266KSellJul 8Asaf SilbersteinCOO8.5K sh$1.1MSellJul 7Green Jason ElliotEVP and CCO2.3K sh$294KSellJul 1Mark LinCFO970 sh$146KSellJun 30Fischer Gregory MichaelDirector1.5K sh$234KSellJun 29Hong Q HouCEO9.6K sh$1.5MSellJun 24Paul V WalshDirector500 sh$82KSellJun 22Wilson John MichaelCTO5.5K sh$935KSellJun 10Mark LinCFO683 sh$106KSellJun 5Hong Q HouCEO2.0K sh$324K
1–10 of 24
+ 55 other (20 awards · 17 exempts · 16 inkinds · 1 gift · 1 return) in window

See when $SMTC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 68-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

Semtech Corporation entered into a new Credit Agreement on July 6, 2026 with Morgan Stanley as administrative agent, consisting of a $360 million revolving credit facility (undrawn at closing) plus an uncommitted incremental term loan capacity capped at $332 million or 100% of Consolidated EBITDA. The facility replaces or supplements existing debt and will be used for working capital, general corporate purposes, and permitted acquisitions. This is an accretive refinancing/liquidity upgrade — the $360M revolver provides significant undrawn liquidity headroom for Semtech's operations and potential M&A.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 88-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Semtech Corporation amended and restated its Executive Severance Plan on June 2, 2026 to add non-Change-in-Control severance: eligible executives terminated without cause or resigning for good reason outside a CiC window receive 1× base salary + pro-rata target bonus + 12-month COBRA, plus accelerated vesting of deferred compensation. The previous plan only covered CiC-related terminations. This expands executive protection and marginally increases contingent compensation costs; otherwise routine.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 268-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) announced Q1 FY2027 financial results (fiscal quarter ended April 26, 2026) via press release on May 26, 2026; actual financial metrics are in the furnished Exhibit 99.1 and not visible in the 8-K body. Item 7.01 additionally covers forward-looking guidance. This is a standard quarterly earnings and guidance disclosure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 168-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 11 other (5 13Gs · 2 proxys · 1 SD · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

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In themes

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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