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RCRCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

$RCAT·$993M·Computer Hardware·Technology
$8.59+1.2%YTD+7.4%1Y-6.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 25 posts2026-08-22: 32 posts304+12%
Price updated 22m ago·X counts updated 9d ago
RCRCAT
$RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.
$8.59+1.18%304 posts+12%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $RCAT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Defense-drone name in a wider drone-basket sell-off — the tape is running the trade both directions.

Red Cat Holdings makes small tactical drones for defense customers and has become one of the retail crowd's favorite counter-UAS/defense-drone names. The stock is roughly flat YTD, down 6% TTM, and today's -8.5% is the tape rolling with a broader drone-basket sell-off.

  • Revenue is scaling but gross margin is thin: quarterly detail is limited, but the trailing four-quarter mix implies a growing top line at only ~5% gross margin — that is not a durable profit engine yet, and analysts model $152M of full-year revenue with $0.11 EPS as the target profitability step.
  • Corporate governance is showing strain: the board terminated the Chief Revenue Officer for cause in July, and CEO Jeffrey Thompson recently sold 150,000 shares for $1.6M — insider selling into a run isn't automatically a red flag, but a for-cause CRO exit signals more than routine change and adds tape risk.
  • The setup is a pattern trade: bulls treat the drone/counter-UAS sector as 'quietly the most asymmetric corner' with RCAT/ONDS/AVEX/SWMR as pack picks and RCAT above the 50DMA, while bears watch three sell signals and a fresh 'went full round from resistance back to support' — the sector rotation is what's really driving the tape now.

A next print that shows revenue scaling and gross margin heading toward defense-industry norms extends the run; a broader risk-off unwind, another executive-level departure, or a specific procurement-program setback is what turns 'cooling' into a real reset.

Agrees with X sentimentX's split is fair — bulls have a real sector tailwind story and bears have a legitimate 'round-trip from resistance' technical read; both are consistent with a name at this margin profile.

What to watch: The next quarterly print — revenue growth, gross margin trajectory, and any commentary on procurement-program awards. A wider drone-basket sell-off or another executive departure is what caps the run.

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment25 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Red Cat's thread is split between a bruised short-term chart and a still-intact defense thesis. Bears flag a 7-8% Friday drop, three active sell signals, a bear-flag breakdown risk and drone platforms 'in freefall' as a group; bulls counter that RCAT sits on repeated small-cap watchlists alongside GRRR, ONDS and CIFR for BVLOS, counter-UAS and domestic drone-supply-chain tailwinds. Multiple posters wait for the 0.618-0.786 fib to buy heavier.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $RCAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes military-grade small FPV drones for the US Army Short Range Reconnaissance program.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RCAT.

Computer Hardware · Technology

AI server infrastructure buildout drives compute shipment volumes; Dell and HPE are riding the same hyperscaler capex wave that lifted NVDA. Non-AI commercial refresh remains soft, so the bull case is concentrated in AI infrastructure exposure.

What this means for $RCAT

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+75.7%YTD
+101.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-18.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-30.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
25.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-34.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
5.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.26$-0.20-27.5%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.22$-0.14-57.1%
Q4 2025Mar 30, 2026$-0.22$-0.16-39.0%
Q4 2025Mar 18, 2026$-0.17$-0.14-21.4%

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$152.1M$152.1M – $152.1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.21%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-6.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-22.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 137.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.355-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Jeffrey M ThompsonCEO150.0K sh$1.6MSellAug 11Christopher R. MoeDirector20.0K sh$210KSellAug 11Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JrDirector55.0K sh$585KSellJul 15Jeffrey M ThompsonCEO150.0K sh$1.3MSellJun 11Paul Ii FunkDirector165.0K sh$1.9M
+ 20 other (10 exempts · 6 inkinds · 4 awards) in window

See when $RCAT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 228-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. disclosed on July 22, 2026 that its Board of Directors determined to terminate Geoffrey Hitchcock, Chief Revenue Officer, for cause effective July 23, 2026. The for-cause determination followed a hearing process under Section 11(c)(2) of Hitchcock's Executive Employment Agreement and was reached on July 17, 2026. Grounds for termination were not specified beyond the for-cause finding. As a result of the for-cause determination, Hitchcock is entitled to no severance or acceleration of equity vesting — only salary and benefits earned through the termination date. The dismissal of a C-level executive for cause at this drone technology company signals potential internal governance or conduct issues that warrant investor monitoring.

8-KShareholder voteJun 258-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 18, 2026 with 71.4 million of 122.1 million shares represented. All five director nominees were elected to serve until 2027: Jeffrey Thompson (21.6M for), Joseph Freedman (17.2M), Nicholas Liuzza Jr. (14.3M), Christopher Moe (17.6M), and General (R) Paul Funk II (14.6M). High broker non-vote counts (~34.2M) depressed the effective turnout. KPMG LLP's ratification as auditor was also on the ballot. Routine annual governance — no material operational changes.

8-KAcquisition completedMay 208-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) filed an 8-K on May 19, 2026 disclosing the completion of an acquisition or disposition (Item 2.01), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and a Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01). Red Cat is a South Salt Lake, Utah-based small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) and defense drone technology company. The combination of Items 2.01 and 3.02 signals that Red Cat completed a significant transaction — an acquisition or asset sale — financed in part through a concurrent private placement; this is a material event for a defense drone company.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

RCAT entered into a underwriting agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-05-14). Counterparty: Evercore Group L.L.C. and BofA Securities, Inc.. Size: approximately $225.0 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 14424B5
AI summary

RCAT filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-14, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $0.001 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 12424B5
AI summary

RCAT filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-12, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $0.001 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 12S-3ASR
AI summary

RCAT filed a S-3ASR (automatic shelf) shelf registration statement dated 2026-05-12. This is primarily a resale shelf for existing stockholders — not new share issuance — limiting direct dilution to public investors. No immediate capital raise is triggered; watch for prospectus supplements disclosing actual transactions.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 318-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

RCAT entered into a purchase agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-03-31). Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 16 other (3 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 routine 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Deutsche Bank AG Makes New Investment in Red Cat Holdings, Inc. $RCATdefenseworld.net·2d agoDrone Stocks Drop While Broad Market Rises: Unusual Machines Sinks 9%, Ondas Falls 6%, Red Cat Slides 5%247wallst.com·3d agoDrone Stocks Slide as Risk Appetite Fades: Unusual Machines Tumbles 9%, Red Cat Falls 7%, Ondas Declines 5%247wallst.com·7d agoQuantum Computing vs. Red Cat: Which High-Growth Innovation Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·9d agoRed Cat CEO Jeffrey Thompson Sells 150,000 Shares for $1.6 Million as the Stock Soars 24%fool.com·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 14 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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