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RCRCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

$RCAT·$952M·Computer Hardware·Technology
$7.67-6.9%YTD-7.0%1Y-33.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 93 posts2026-07-10: 115 posts2026-07-11: 41 posts2026-07-12: 70 posts2026-07-13: 207 posts2026-07-14: 145 posts2026-07-15: 191 posts883+4%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
RCRCAT
$RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.
$7.67-6.92%883 posts+4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $RCAT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Small-cap drone-defense play riding the $1B drone-dominance program — Morgan Stanley's H2 laggard rotation is the specific tell.

Red Cat Holdings is a small-cap US drone-defense play — building UAS platforms for military and homeland-security applications. The stock is basing after a drawdown as the government drone-dominance program provides a specific catalyst backdrop.

Where both sides land:

  • The government-program tailwind is category-defining: the $1B drone-dominance initiative remains in place, and demos alongside DZYNE and ONDS are real — meaning Red Cat is in the specific competitive set for the incoming defense contract flow.
  • The sell-side call is specific and forward-looking: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson including RCAT on his H2 laggard-rotation list is exactly the setup where an under-owned specialty name gets flow ahead of a specific catalyst window.
  • Fundamentals are still pre-revenue-inflection: 5% gross margin against a 153% negative operating margin means every dollar of revenue costs more than 2.5x to produce — meaning the equity is a claim on future defense-contract flow, not on current unit economics.
  • The tape reflects the compressed setup: sitting 28% below the 50-day and 33% below the 200-day, at 15% of the 52-week range — a coiled base near the floor with volume already declining.

What restarts the leg is a specific defense-contract award citing Red Cat or a specific H2 rotation flow arriving. What continues the coil is another quarter of unprofitable revenue burn without a contract announcement.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish on the drone-defense tailwinds, the Morgan Stanley rotation list and the whale accumulation, and the setup is real — the $1B program plus the Wilson call is a specific catalyst backdrop. The gap the corpus isn't sizing is the unit economics — a contract has to come with margins that make the business scale, not just top-line.

What to watch: The Aug 13 print — specific defense-contract awards, gross margin trajectory versus prior quarter, and any commentary on the drone-dominance program budget flow. A signed contract award restarts the leg; another quarter of unit-economics losses continues the coil.

On the calendar: 2026-08-13 — Q1 earnings

beta missing

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment9 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-14

Red Cat chatter emphasizes drone-defense tailwinds: whales accumulating ahead of a next defense bill, a $1B drone-dominance initiative still in place, a live North Carolina Army National Guard demo alongside DZYNE and ONDS, and Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson including RCAT on his 2H laggard rotation list. Commentators note White House commentary supportive of drone investment and shares back at support with LEAPs described as intriguing.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $RCAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes military-grade small FPV drones for the US Army Short Range Reconnaissance program.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Computer Hardware sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RCAT.

Computer Hardware · Technology

No material change from last week — STX and WDC (SanDisk spinoff) benefit from LLM training requiring petabyte-scale nearline storage infrastructure.

What this means for $RCAT

Neutral — Makes military-grade small FPV drones for the US Army Short Range Reconnaissance program; limited exposure means the LLM training data storage demand pulling HDD/SSD production cycle is not a near-term catalyst or headwind.

Top industry ETF

$SOXXiShares Semiconductor ETF
+71.9%YTD
+116.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-18.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-30.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
25.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-34.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
5.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.22$-0.14-57.1%
Q4 2025Mar 18, 2026$-0.17$-0.14-21.4%
Q3 2025Nov 13, 2025$-0.16$-0.07-128.6%
Q2 2025Aug 14, 2025$-0.15$-0.10-42.9%
Next earningsThu, Aug 13·consensus EPS $-0.19

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$152.1M$152.1M – $152.1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.15%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-27.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-32.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 111.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today7.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 15Jeffrey M ThompsonCEO150.0K sh$1.3MSellJun 11Paul Ii FunkDirector165.0K sh$1.9M
+ 20 other (10 exempts · 6 inkinds · 4 awards) in window

See when $RCAT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 258-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 18, 2026 with 71.4 million of 122.1 million shares represented. All five director nominees were elected to serve until 2027: Jeffrey Thompson (21.6M for), Joseph Freedman (17.2M), Nicholas Liuzza Jr. (14.3M), Christopher Moe (17.6M), and General (R) Paul Funk II (14.6M). High broker non-vote counts (~34.2M) depressed the effective turnout. KPMG LLP's ratification as auditor was also on the ballot. Routine annual governance — no material operational changes.

8-KAcquisition completedMay 208-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) filed an 8-K on May 19, 2026 disclosing the completion of an acquisition or disposition (Item 2.01), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and a Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01). Red Cat is a South Salt Lake, Utah-based small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) and defense drone technology company. The combination of Items 2.01 and 3.02 signals that Red Cat completed a significant transaction — an acquisition or asset sale — financed in part through a concurrent private placement; this is a material event for a defense drone company.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

RCAT entered into a underwriting agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-05-14). Counterparty: Evercore Group L.L.C. and BofA Securities, Inc.. Size: approximately $225.0 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 14424B5
AI summary

RCAT filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-14, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $0.001 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 12424B5
AI summary

RCAT filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-12, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $0.001 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 12S-3ASR
AI summary

RCAT filed a S-3ASR (automatic shelf) shelf registration statement dated 2026-05-12. This is primarily a resale shelf for existing stockholders — not new share issuance — limiting direct dilution to public investors. No immediate capital raise is triggered; watch for prospectus supplements disclosing actual transactions.

8-KMaterial agreementMar 318-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

RCAT entered into a purchase agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-03-31). Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 15 other (4 13Gs · 3 routine 8-Ks · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Drone Stocks Are Down, But Defense Backlogs Tell a Different Storymarketbeat.com·9d agoRed Cat’s Teal Drones Advances to Gauntlet II of Drone Dominance Programglobenewswire.com·15d agoRed Cat's Teal Drones Advances to Gauntlet II of Drone Dominance Programglobenewswire.com·15d agoAeroVironment's Q4 Blowout Triggers Drone Stock Melt-Upbenzinga.com·17d agoIs Red Cat Holdings a Top Drone Defense Stock to Buy Right Now?fool.com·20d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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