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RCRCAT

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

$RCAT·$878M·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$4.73-3.5%YTD-37.2%1Y-66.6%
Price updated 6m ago·X counts updated 5d ago
RCRCAT
$RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.
$4.73-3.47%328 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $RCAT on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

328X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $RCAT's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 51% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-15

Red Cat Holdings sees reflexive short-squeeze setup from meme-coin + Robinhood Chain attention layered on drone contracts, with posts flagging WSB/stock-forum coverage and 'small float, fat shorts' framing. The euphoria tone is uniformly bullish.

Read what X is saying about $RCAT

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $RCAT — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

A small-float drone-defense name positioning for a short-squeeze on real contracts and heavy retail attention.

Red Cat Holdings is a small-cap drone-and-maritime-defense company — Blue Ops partnership with Florida Atlantic University's Harbor Branch, Pentagon-focused SRR drone wins, and a position inside the autonomous-warfare thesis that keeps getting policy support.

  • The setup is driven by capital structure, not just contracts: a small float with fat short interest, meme-coin/Robinhood Chain cross-attention, and WSB/stock-forum pickup is the exact capital-markets ingredient list for a reflexive squeeze — the kind that doesn't need big numbers to move the stock meaningfully.
  • The underlying business matters for duration: the maritime-defense partnership with FAU and the ongoing drone-defense contract pipeline put Red Cat into a legitimate autonomous-warfare basket alongside AeroVironment and Ondas — which means the squeeze thesis has a fundamental follow-through case if it works.

At just 5% of its 52-week range and 42% below the 200-day, the chart is pricing worst-case. Any specific contract disclosure, named Pentagon program award, or renewed short-squeeze volume (above 2x average sustained) is the trigger; a quiet quarter without catalysts keeps the stock in the lower band.

Agrees with X sentimentThe reflexive-squeeze bullish read lines up with the capital structure and the sector tailwind. The one honest hedge is that 'small float + fat shorts' squeezes work until they don't — size this one small or ride it with a stop.

What to watch: Any named Pentagon contract disclosure, maritime-defense program award, or short-interest-driven volume spike. A contract plus 2x volume is the trigger; another quiet quarter without catalysts keeps it coiled.

small floatsqueeze setup

Read the AI verdict on $RCAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes military-grade small FPV drones for the US Army Short Range Reconnaissance program.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RCAT.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — Defense procurement backlogs remain intact on NATO 2% GDP commitments.

What this means for $RCAT

Neutral — Makes military-grade small FPV drones for the US Army Short Range Reconnaissance program.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
-5.3%YTD
-0.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-18.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-30.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-153%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
25.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-34.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
5.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.26$-0.20-27.5%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.22$-0.14-57.1%
Q4 2025Mar 30, 2026$-0.22$-0.16-39.0%
Q4 2025Mar 18, 2026$-0.17$-0.14-21.4%

Forward consensus

1-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$152.1M$152.1M – $152.1M$0.11$0.11 – $0.111

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.3%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-37.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-54.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 139.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today7.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.355-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 15Jeffrey M ThompsonCEO150.0K sh$1.2MSellAug 28Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JrDirector65.0K sh$553KSellAug 17Jeffrey M ThompsonCEO150.0K sh$1.6MSellAug 11Christopher R. MoeDirector20.0K sh$210KSellAug 11Liuzza Nicholas Reyland JrDirector55.0K sh$585KSellJul 15Jeffrey M ThompsonCEO150.0K sh$1.3MSellJun 11Paul Ii FunkDirector165.0K sh$1.9M
+ 6 other (5 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $RCAT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 228-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. disclosed on July 22, 2026 that its Board of Directors determined to terminate Geoffrey Hitchcock, Chief Revenue Officer, for cause effective July 23, 2026. The for-cause determination followed a hearing process under Section 11(c)(2) of Hitchcock's Executive Employment Agreement and was reached on July 17, 2026. Grounds for termination were not specified beyond the for-cause finding. As a result of the for-cause determination, Hitchcock is entitled to no severance or acceleration of equity vesting — only salary and benefits earned through the termination date. The dismissal of a C-level executive for cause at this drone technology company signals potential internal governance or conduct issues that warrant investor monitoring.

8-KShareholder voteJun 258-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 18, 2026 with 71.4 million of 122.1 million shares represented. All five director nominees were elected to serve until 2027: Jeffrey Thompson (21.6M for), Joseph Freedman (17.2M), Nicholas Liuzza Jr. (14.3M), Christopher Moe (17.6M), and General (R) Paul Funk II (14.6M). High broker non-vote counts (~34.2M) depressed the effective turnout. KPMG LLP's ratification as auditor was also on the ballot. Routine annual governance — no material operational changes.

8-KAcquisition completedMay 208-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) filed an 8-K on May 19, 2026 disclosing the completion of an acquisition or disposition (Item 2.01), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and a Regulation FD disclosure (Item 7.01). Red Cat is a South Salt Lake, Utah-based small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) and defense drone technology company. The combination of Items 2.01 and 3.02 signals that Red Cat completed a significant transaction — an acquisition or asset sale — financed in part through a concurrent private placement; this is a material event for a defense drone company.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 148-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

RCAT entered into a underwriting agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-05-14). Counterparty: Evercore Group L.L.C. and BofA Securities, Inc.. Size: approximately $225.0 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 14424B5
AI summary

RCAT filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-14, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $0.001 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 12424B5
AI summary

RCAT filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement dated 2026-05-12, representing an active capital markets transaction. Priced at $0.001 per share. This represents immediate dilution to existing shareholders.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 12S-3ASR
AI summary

RCAT filed a S-3ASR (automatic shelf) shelf registration statement dated 2026-05-12. This is primarily a resale shelf for existing stockholders — not new share issuance — limiting direct dilution to public investors. No immediate capital raise is triggered; watch for prospectus supplements disclosing actual transactions.

+ 12 other (2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Ondas Climbs 4% on Palantir-Powered Regna AI Venture, Red Cat Barely Budges After TRICHON Drone Debut247wallst.com·4d agoOndas Adds $165M in New Orders, Boosts 2027 Revenue Visibilityzacks.com·8d agoAeroVironment Is Now Down 43% This Year. Is It Time to Sell This Dropping Drone Stock?247wallst.com·9d agoWhich Drone Stock Is Dominating in 2026: Red Cat, Ondas, or AeroVironment?247wallst.com·14d agoBlue Ops to Bring Maritime Defense Operations to FAU Harbor Branchprnewswire.com·14d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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