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MRMRCY

Mercury Systems, Inc.

$MRCY·$6.5B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$87.25-1.5%YTD+53.4%1Y+29.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 2 posts2026-08-22: 14 posts2026-08-23: 3 posts138+7%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 8d ago
MRMRCY
$MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.
$87.26-1.45%138 posts+7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MRCY, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Mercury Systems delivered a huge bookings quarter but missed on EPS — CEO Ballhaus just cashed out $14M into strength.

Mercury Systems is a mid-cap defense-electronics company — mission-computing, secure processing, and RF modules that go into missile-defense, radar, EW systems. Q4 delivered a bookings explosion and an EPS miss simultaneously.

How the setup reads:

  • Bookings print is strong: Q4 revenue beat at $290M vs $266M (+6% YoY), bookings jumped 93% YoY to $660M, backlog exceeded $1.9B (+38%) — Piper raised PT to $131.
  • EPS miss got punished: adj EPS $0.37 was -21% YoY, MRCY fell 8.8% pre-market — the market cares about profit conversion, and the -21% adj-EPS swing triggered the pullback.
  • Insider distribution is loud: CEO Ballhaus exercised for $19M and sold $14M+ combined — enormous distribution for a $6.5B cap; a fiduciary-duty investigation lands on top of it.
  • Institutional signal counterweights: American Capital Management took a fresh $59.5M position, BlackRock also added — funds underwriting the bookings turn even as insiders sell.
  • Position cooling not broken: 37th percentile 52w, 15% below the 50-day but only 2% below the 200-day, on 85% baseline volume — the pre-market -8.8% being absorbed.

The November 3 print is the referee — a repeat of $600M+ bookings with EPS recovering to positive year-on-year keeps the defense-primes trade alive for MRCY; another wide EPS miss with continued insider distribution unwinds the setup back to the 200-day near $75.

What to watch: November 3 earnings — bookings holding above $600M with EPS recovering YoY keeps the defense-primes trade alive; another wide EPS miss with continued CEO distribution unwinds the setup back to the 200-day near $75.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-25

Mixed tone on Mercury Systems Q4 FY26. Revenue beat at $290M (est $266M) up 6.1% YoY, bookings jumped 93.1% YoY to $660M and backlog exceeded $1.9B up 38.4%, with Piper raising the PT to $131. Countering that, adj EPS of $0.37 missed at -21% YoY, MRCY fell 8.8% pre-market as the sharpest earnings mover, and defense peers KTOS and MOG.A are 'dead in the water' alongside it.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MRCY

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes ruggedized compute modules and EW subsystems for military aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRCY.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

Defense budget tailwinds — NATO spending commitments and Pentagon procurement acceleration — support backlogs at prime contractors. Commercial space is a separate driver: launch cadence and satellite constellations are pulling RKLB and LUNR on their own momentum, independent of traditional defense spending.

What this means for $MRCY

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; Mercury Systems, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+16.3%YTD
+16.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-468.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
1.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
6.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-1.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
27.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 18, 2026$0.37$0.38-3.3%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.27$0.06+350.0%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.16$0.07+128.6%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.26$0.08+225.0%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $0.27

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$235.8M+11.5%25.2%3.2%$-0.05$-1.8M
Q2 FY26$232.9M+4.4%26.0%-4.6%$-0.26$42.6M
Q1 FY26$225.2M+10.2%27.9%-3.8%$-0.21$-4.4M
Q4 FY25$273.1M+9.9%31.0%8.6%$-0.33$34.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 7 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$960.0M$956.5M – $968.3M$1.08$1.06 – $1.117
FY27$1.0B$1.0B – $1.1B$1.55$1.26 – $1.966
FY28$1.2B$1.1B – $1.3B$2.15$0.98 – $4.116
FY29$1.3B$1.2B – $1.3B$2.61$2.54 – $2.771
FY30$1.4B$1.3B – $1.4B$3.16$3.07 – $3.361

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.37%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-15.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-1.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 55.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.005-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 26William L BallhausCEO49.1K sh$4.4MSellAug 25William L BallhausCEO111.1K sh$9.7MSellAug 24William L BallhausCEO108.2K sh$9.7MSellAug 21Steven RatnerEVP, CHRO356 sh$33KSellAug 21Stuart KupinskyEVP, CLO & Corp Sec1.0K sh$95KSellAug 21William L BallhausCEO65.0K sh$6.0MSellAug 20Steven RatnerEVP, CHRO1.0K sh$100KSellAug 20Douglas MunroSVP, CAO109 sh$11KSellAug 20David E. FarnsworthCFO6.6K sh$646KSellAug 20William L BallhausCEO22.0K sh$2.1M
1–10 of 30
+ 11 other (4 exempts · 4 returns · 3 awards) in window

See when $MRCY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMar 4SC 13D/A
+ 9 other (4 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-K · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

American Capital Management Inc. Makes New $59.46 Million Investment in Mercury Systems Inc $MRCYdefenseworld.net·5d agoDid Mercury Systems, Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?prnewswire.com·6d agoBlackRock Inc. Acquires New Shares in Mercury Systems Inc $MRCYdefenseworld.net·10d agoB. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. AG Takes $4.02 Million Position in Mercury Systems Inc $MRCYdefenseworld.net·10d agoMercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Stock Down 6.8% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 62/100gurufocus.com·11d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & DronesRobotics & Humanoids

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $MRCY on X in the last 7 days.

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