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MRMRCY

Mercury Systems, Inc.

$MRCY·$4.8B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$74.27-2.8%YTD+4.4%1Y-3.7%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
MRMRCY
$MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.
$74.27-2.80%20 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $MRCY on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

20X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-25

Mixed tone on Mercury Systems Q4 FY26. Revenue beat at $290M (est $266M) up 6.1% YoY, bookings jumped 93.1% YoY to $660M and backlog exceeded $1.9B up 38.4%, with Piper raising the PT to $131. Countering that, adj EPS of $0.37 missed at -21% YoY, MRCY fell 8.8% pre-market as the sharpest earnings mover, and defense peers KTOS and MOG.A are 'dead in the water' alongside it.

Read what X is saying about $MRCY

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MRCY — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Mercury Systems bookings up 93% and backlog hit $1.9B — the defense-compute story is building beneath the EPS wobble.

Mercury Systems delivered the kind of mixed quarter the market is still digesting — Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of $290M beat by 9%, bookings jumped 93% YoY to $660M, backlog cleared $1.9B (+38%) — but adjusted EPS of $0.37 missed by 3% and the stock fell 8.8% premarket.

  • The last four quarterly EPS beats read Q4 -3%, Q3 +350%, Q2 +129%, Q1 +225% — the earnings cadence is actually one of the most consistent in defense, with the Q4 miss as an outlier rather than a trend.
  • The CEO Bill Ballhaus employment contract extension (September 16) plus Piper's PT raise to $131 confirm management is anchored to the current trajectory, while the Essex County derivative lawsuit settlement (September 18) removes a lingering legal overhang.
  • Insider sales are modest — Kupinsky sold 1K shares at $86.52 and Ratner sold 4K at $84.51 — consistent with 10b5-1 scheduled trims rather than a reversal signal.

At $84.87 and 31% of the 52-week range, the stock is coiling with the forward multiple on fiscal 2027 EPS of $1.08 at 78x — rich on absolute terms, reasonable on the backlog conversion ratio; the November 3 fiscal Q1 2027 earnings is the first test of whether the Q4 bookings jump converts to recognized revenue.

Agrees with X sentimentX is mixed on Mercury Systems with Piper's PT raise against the EPS miss framed as the biggest earnings moment of the quarter; the TickerTalks read agrees the signal is positive but is more cautious given the 78x forward multiple leaves no room for a conversion slip.

What to watch: November 3 fiscal Q1 2027 earnings and backlog-to-revenue conversion rate; any new defense program-of-record disclosure; derivative lawsuit settlement finalization and residual legal reserve release.

On the calendar: Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings scheduled 2026-11-03

Read the AI verdict on $MRCY

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
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  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes ruggedized compute modules and EW subsystems for military aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRCY.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — Defense procurement backlogs remain intact on NATO 2% GDP commitments.

What this means for $MRCY

Direct beneficiary — Makes ruggedized compute modules and EW subsystems for military aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
-5.3%YTD
+1.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-468.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
1.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
6.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-1.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
27.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 18, 2026$0.37$0.38-3.3%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.27$0.06+350.0%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$0.16$0.07+128.6%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.26$0.08+225.0%
Next earningsTue, Nov 10·consensus EPS $0.30

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$235.8M+11.5%25.2%3.2%$-0.05$-1.8M
Q2 FY26$232.9M+4.4%26.0%-4.6%$-0.26$42.6M
Q1 FY26$225.2M+10.2%27.9%-3.8%$-0.21$-4.4M
Q4 FY25$273.1M+9.9%31.0%8.6%$-0.33$34.0M

Forward consensus

10-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$960.0M$956.5M – $968.3M$1.08$1.06 – $1.117
FY26$959.9M$956.4M – $968.2M$1.07$1.05 – $1.107
FY27$1.0B$1.0B – $1.1B$1.55$1.26 – $1.966
FY27$1.1B$1.1B – $1.1B$1.67$1.44 – $1.888
FY28$1.2B$1.1B – $1.3B$2.15$0.98 – $4.116
FY28$1.2B$1.2B – $1.3B$2.22$1.95 – $2.798
FY29$1.3B$1.2B – $1.3B$2.61$2.54 – $2.771
FY29$1.3B$1.3B – $1.3B$2.56$2.51 – $2.652
FY30$1.4B$1.3B – $1.4B$3.16$3.07 – $3.361
FY30$1.5B$1.4B – $1.5B$3.25$3.19 – $3.371

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.15%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-15.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-19.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 55.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.985-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 21Stuart KupinskyEVP, CLO & Corp Sec1.0K sh$87KSellSep 3Steven RatnerEVP, CHRO4.0K sh$338KSellAug 26William L BallhausCEO49.1K sh$4.4MSellAug 25William L BallhausCEO111.1K sh$9.7MSellAug 24William L BallhausCEO108.2K sh$9.7MSellAug 21Steven RatnerEVP, CHRO356 sh$33KSellAug 21William L BallhausCEO65.0K sh$6.0MSellAug 21Stuart KupinskyEVP, CLO & Corp Sec1.0K sh$95KSellAug 20Steven RatnerEVP, CHRO1.0K sh$100KSellAug 20Douglas MunroSVP, CAO109 sh$11K
1–10 of 30
+ 14 other (6 awards · 4 exempts · 4 returns) in window

See when $MRCY insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementSep 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) filed an 8-K on September 16, 2026, disclosing both a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01) and a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01); the excerpt shows only the cover page. Given Mercury's role as a mission-critical defense electronics supplier, a material agreement likely signals a significant new program, partnership, or commercial contract.

+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 routine 8-K · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Mercury Systems to Report First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results on November 10, 2026globenewswire.com·4d agoMercury Celebrates the Expansion of its Phoenix Production Facilityglobenewswire.com·9d agoMercury Introduces RES One, a Rugged Edge Server Engineered for Rapid Deployment and Superior Lifecycle Managementglobenewswire.com·11d ago3 Defense Stocks Riding Nuclear, Missile, and Aerospace Demandmarketbeat.com·21d agoIs the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Mercury Systems Stock?zacks.com·22d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & DronesRobotics & Humanoids

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $MRCY on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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