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HOHOG

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

$HOG·$2.8B·Auto - Manufacturers·Consumer Cyclical
$27.59+2.3%YTD+33.5%1Y+2.6%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 4d ago
HOHOG
$HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.
$27.59+2.34%108 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $HOG on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

108X posts · last 7 days
Sep 28Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $HOG's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 72% of tracked names.

Neutral sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-11

The $HOG cashtag is mostly LiquiHog/DorkFi crypto (supply caps increased, governance execution, community fade-warning) — with one Harley-Davidson equity mention on dividend announcement and one 'FAT move' chart post. Sample majority crypto; no equity signal.

Read what X is saying about $HOG

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $HOG — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Comeback attemptStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Harley-Davidson up 21% YTD — 17x P/E, dividend intact, Trump tariff narrative is the overhang.

Harley-Davidson is the iconic American motorcycle manufacturer plus the Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment. The stock is up 21% YTD, consolidating below the 50-day MA on 1.1x normal volume ahead of Nov 3 earnings.

  • The P&L is softening: revenue fell 15.6% YoY to $1.1B last quarter at a 4.1% operating margin and EPS $0.74 — the declining-revenue plus thin-margin profile is the structural concern; FY26 EPS estimate at $0.46 reflects continued pressure.
  • The specific overhang is the Trump tariff narrative — HOG has been a tariff punching-bag in prior cycles given its European and Asian exports; the pending data-breach class-action lawsuit adds reputational drag.
  • The P/E at 17 and the modest insider pattern (NOVA M-Exempt only) are relatively neutral — the chart is in a specific up-trend-with-pullback setup.

Stalled holds until Nov 3 earnings confirm North America retail sales trajectory and tariff-mitigation progress. A soft North America print, or any specific commentary on European demand softness, is what tips this toward breaking-down; a signed Trump-tariff-mitigation agreement plus a FY27 EPS guide above $2.00 is what breaks the stalled tape higher.

What to watch: Nov 3 earnings — North America retail sales trajectory, European demand, tariff-mitigation progress, FY27 EPS guide. A soft North America print or European-demand softening is what breaks the stalled tape lower.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $HOG

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Harley-Davidson manufactures heavyweight touring and cruiser motorcycles and operates an in-house financial services division.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Auto - Manufacturers sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $HOG.

Auto - Manufacturers · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Tesla remains the autonomous and robotaxi thesis vehicle while legacy OEMs navigate tariff cost structures and margin-dilutive EV transitions.

What this means for $HOG

Neutral — Harley-Davidson manufactures heavyweight touring and cruiser motorcycles and operates an in-house financial services division.

Industry benchmark

16-name peer basket
-33.7%YTD
-34.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
2.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
5.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
23.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 23, 2026$0.75$0.65+16.3%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$0.22$0.34-35.3%
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$-2.44$-0.92-165.2%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$3.10$1.38+124.6%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.47

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$1.1B-15.6%25.1%4.1%$0.74$155.4M
Q1 FY26$1.2B-11.8%29.5%3.9%$0.23$-259.8M
Q4 FY25$496.2M-27.8%-22.8%-72.8%$-2.44$100.4M
Q3 FY25$1.3B+16.5%35.2%35.7%$3.13$-129.1M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$3.9B$3.8B – $4.0B$0.70$0.28 – $1.098
FY27$4.0B$3.9B – $4.2B$1.94$1.28 – $2.628
FY28$4.3B$4.1B – $4.6B$2.95$1.70 – $3.654

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.89%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+2.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+17.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 102.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.325-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 1Jonathan R RootCFO1.6K sh$38KSellSep 1Jonathan R RootCFO1.6K sh$43KBuyAug 11Gayle LittletonCLO, CCO, CAO & Corp Sec7.5K sh$198KBuyAug 10Artie StarrsCEO10.0K sh$259KSellAug 3Jonathan R RootCFO1.6K sh$39KBuyJul 31Daniel J NovaDirector40.0K sh$983KSellJul 1Jonathan R RootCFO1.6K sh$38KSellMay 19Jonathan R RootCFO1.6K sh$38KSellMay 11Paul J KrauseChief Legal Officer1.6K sh$41K
+ 15 other (8 awards · 7 exempts) in window

See when $HOG insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-K/APress release / Reg FD (amended)Jul 238-K/A — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Harley-Davidson filed this 8-K/A to correct a specific error in its Q2 2026 earnings press release: the high end of the HDFS (Harley-Davidson Financial Services) operating income guidance range was printed incorrectly; the corrected full-year 2026 HDFS operating income guidance appears in the replacement Exhibit 99.2. All other Q2 earnings information remains unchanged. Minor guidance correction; the erroneous high-end figure in the original press release is replaced, with no change to any other financial data.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 93
AI summary

A new Harley-Davidson director or officer filed Form 3 reporting no securities beneficially held in either derivative or non-derivative tables. Routine initial ownership disclosure with zero holdings at time of appointment.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 268-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KOfficer or director changeMay 288-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 13 other (7 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

A 26% Dividend Yield After a 30% Stock Drop? These 5 Stocks Deserve Scrutiny247wallst.com·19h agoHarley-Davidson, Inc. To Report Third Quarter 2026 Results on October 29, 2026prnewswire.com·7d agoWall Street Is Betting These 3 Beaten-Down Stocks Have More Room to Runmarketbeat.com·9d agoHarley-Davidson Stock Jumps as Citi Bets on a Turnaroundbarrons.com·11d agoDow Futures Inch Higher as Investors Monitor Yieldsschaeffersresearch.com·11d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $HOG on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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