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ASASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthBullish-leaning chatter
$ASML·$693B·Semiconductors·Technology
$1747.58-2.1%YTD+54.1%1Y+134.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 326 posts2026-07-11: 191 posts2026-07-12: 471 posts2026-07-13: 440 posts2026-07-14: 424 posts2026-07-15: 1,608 posts2026-07-16: 467 posts3,980+56%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ASASML
$ASMLASML Holding N.V.
$1,747.58-2.09%4.0k posts+56%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASML, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

EUV monopoly just posted a clean beat — the one company nobody can build around, priced accordingly.

ASML makes the extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines that print the smallest transistors in advanced chips — no ASML EUV means no leading-edge TSMC, Intel, or Samsung fabs. It's the closest thing to a true monopoly in semiconductors, and today's Q2 print (EPS $8.69 vs $7.98 consensus, an 8.9% beat) validates that positioning.

  • Revenue grew 13% YoY to $8.8B last quarter — the growth looks modest for a monopoly, but that's because 2025 was a shipment-timing trough; the ~$10.7B Q2 print already visible in the surprises table shows the ramp resuming.
  • Trades at 56x TTM earnings and 17x sales, but 32.5x forward EPS ($55 FY28 consensus) — the multiple is defensible only because there's no competitor within a decade of the EUV process, so pricing power is real.
  • Operating margin sits at 35% with a 53% gross margin and 35% ROIC — those are software-company economics on capital-intensive hardware, which is what a monopoly earns.
  • Dylan Patel's SemiAnalysis framing of TSMC and ASML as price-inelastic in a shortage environment is analytically right — every AI data center build requires ASML tools; there's no substitution path.
  • 52-week position 86th percentile and volume 2x the 30-day average — the tape is confirming the print, not fading it.

The October 21 earnings is the next look, and the setup is straightforward: another beat with a FY27 revenue guide above the current $50B consensus keeps the run alive. Anything less than a raised full-year outlook is where the tape starts asking whether the AI-capex cycle peaked. Real business at a real price — the ceiling is set by China-export policy, not by execution.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X take on the EUV monopoly and price-inelasticity is analytically right and today's beat validates it. Where the crowd is right to be cautious: 'funding shorts' language into the print was overconfident, and the real ceiling here is China-export policy — Washington still decides how much of ASML's addressable market it lets ship.

What to watch: Oct 21 Q3 earnings — need a raised FY27 revenue outlook. Anything less than an above-consensus full-year guide is where the tape asks whether the AI capex peak is behind us.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment40 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

ASML delivered a blowout Q2: revenue of €9.3B up 21%, net income of €2.9B up 27%, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance to €43-45B, implying about 35% YoY growth. The EUV order book is essentially sold out through 2028, guided at 65 units in 2026, 85 in 2027 (near-fully booked) and 110 in 2028. A wave of analyst PT hikes followed, including Argus to $2,100, RBC to $2,100 and Futurum to $2,580, and BofA raised revenue estimates 13-15% across 2026-28. The one skeptical note: the stock traded flat despite the beat, which posters read as 'priced for perfection' rather than a break in the story.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASML

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASML.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $ASML

Partial — Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing; the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle creates tailwinds for one product line, not the full operation.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+50.8%YTD
+90.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
34.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
16.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
52.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
52.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 15, 2026$8.68$7.98+8.8%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$8.37$7.72+8.4%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$8.55$9.04-5.4%
Q3 2025Oct 15, 2025$6.41$6.27+2.2%
Next earningsWed, Oct 14·consensus EPS $11.74

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.8B+13.2%53.0%36.0%$7.15$-2.6B
Q4 FY25$9.7B+4.9%52.2%35.3%$7.35$10.6B
Q3 FY25$7.5B+0.7%51.6%32.8%$5.49$263.2M
Q2 FY25$7.7B+23.2%53.7%34.6%$5.90$357.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 27 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$40.0B$39.7B – $40.5B$32.53$30.51 – $34.9026
FY27$50.2B$46.5B – $57.2B$45.00$37.82 – $57.3526
FY28$57.2B$53.4B – $62.3B$55.01$44.92 – $70.2527
FY29$63.3B$59.1B – $69.0B$63.22$57.79 – $70.5813
FY30$68.0B$63.5B – $74.0B$71.03$64.92 – $79.2913

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.84%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+31.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 385.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.785-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 8 other (6 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Should You Buy, Sell or Hold ASML Stock Post Q2 Earnings?zacks.com·1d agoASML Q2 Earnings Call Lifts Outlook on AI-Driven Demandzacks.com·2d agoASML Holding's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Yzacks.com·2d agoPrice Prediction: ASML Could Hit $2,000+ in 12 Months With AI Demand Fueling Lithography Growth247wallst.com·2d agoASML: Q2 Pulled The Earnings Story Forwardseekingalpha.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor Onshoring

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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