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ASASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growth
$ASML·$686B·Semiconductors·Technology
$1641.52-1.0%YTD+46.2%1Y+61.0%
Price updated 4h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ASASML
$ASMLASML Holding N.V.
$1,641.52-0.96%1.1k posts3×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ASML on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,084X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
3×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ASML's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 99% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data10 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment is bullish on a cheap monopoly — ASML is trading ~17% below fair-value estimates after the pullback, is the only commercial supplier of EUV lithography, and has already completed 50% of its three-year share-buyback program in nine months. The 2026 range (€919-1741, 89% delta) is being quoted as evidence "there is alpha in large caps." The lone caution is an Elliott-wave technician who thinks the stock has one more rally left (~€2,198) before cooling.

Read what X is saying about $ASML

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ASML — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

ASML is still the EUV monopoly — buyback accelerating, chart extending, earnings Oct 14.

ASML is the only company in the world that makes extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines — the EUV monopoly behind every leading-edge chip from Nvidia, TSMC, Samsung, and SK hynix. The business is unmatched; the question is just pacing.

  • The economics are elite: Q1 revenue +13% YoY at a 36% operating margin and ROIC 35% — modest top-line growth is misleading because EUV orders are lumpy and the backlog is years long.
  • Capital return is accelerating hard: management completed 50% of a three-year buyback program in just nine months, which is a direct signal they see the stock as cheap and the backlog as durable.
  • 52-week range position is 82% with vol multiplier 1.12 — the chart is in a sustained uptrend, and the sentiment ask is "when to buy pullbacks" rather than any real bear case.

Oct 14 Q3 is the gate — new EUV booking numbers and any 2027 commentary extend the move. A soft bookings print or any High-NA delay commentary and the stock pulls back for the first real test of the trend.

Agrees with X sentimentThe crowd has the right structural read — EUV monopoly, accelerated buyback, backlog durability — and the pullback-entry framing is honest. No real bear case because there isn't one at the business level.

What to watch: Oct 14 Q3 — new EUV booking value, backlog trajectory, and any 2027 or High-NA commentary. A bookings miss or High-NA delay is the invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-10-14 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ASML

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASML.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural driver with Blackwell supply still packaging-constrained. Jensen Huang publicly named memory bandwidth as AI's next bottleneck, reinforcing HBM3e pricing power. AVGO custom ASIC demand broadens AI beneficiaries beyond NVDA's GPU allocation.

What this means for $ASML

Direct beneficiary — Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing.; leading-edge node investments at TSMC/Samsung/Intel convert directly to equipment and materials revenue.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+64.5%YTD
+57.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
34.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
16.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
52.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
52.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q3 2026Oct 14, 2026$14.52$12.17+19.3%
Q2 2026Jul 15, 2026$8.68$7.98+8.8%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$8.37$7.72+8.4%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$8.55$9.04-5.4%
Next earningsWed, Jan 27·consensus EPS $16.06

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.8B+13.2%53.0%36.0%$7.15$-2.6B
Q4 FY25$9.7B+4.9%52.2%35.3%$7.35$10.6B
Q3 FY25$7.5B+0.7%51.6%32.8%$5.49$263.2M
Q2 FY25$7.7B+23.2%53.7%34.6%$5.90$357.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 34 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$44.0B$43.6B – $44.4B$38.71$35.49 – $41.3028
FY27$56.3B$52.0B – $58.3B$53.56$45.51 – $60.6426
FY28$68.3B$45.7B – $81.2B$69.27$45.62 – $87.7334
FY29$78.5B$64.9B – $85.4B$90.22$69.85 – $100.5130
FY30$87.5B$72.3B – $95.1B$105.58$81.74 – $117.6217

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.67%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+5.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 385.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.305-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 3 other (2 6-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ASML Can't Keep Up With AI Demand—Why That's a Good Thingmarketbeat.com·1d agoASML Just Delivered Excellent News for Micron Stock Investorsfool.com·1d agoASML Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Capacity Expansion Planszacks.com·2d agoMeet the Low-Cost Vanguard ETF With Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and ASML as Its 4 Largest Holdingsfool.com·2d agoShould You Trade ASML Stock With Caution Despite Q3 Earnings Beat?zacks.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor Onshoring

More in Semiconductors

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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