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ASASML

ASML Holding N.V.

$ASML·$671B·Semiconductors·Technology
$1696.01-0.0%YTD+51.0%1Y+122.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 44 posts2026-08-22: 34 posts2026-08-23: 29 posts397-3%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
ASASML
$ASMLASML Holding N.V.
$1,696.01-0.01%397 posts-3%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASML, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The lithography monopoly at the top of the semi cycle — 122% one-year run cooling as the market digests a 38% valuation premium against a $281B 2028 WFE forecast.

ASML is the sole supplier of extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems used to make the world's most advanced semiconductor chips — the ultimate pick-and-shovel play in the AI/foundry cycle. The stock is up 122% over the last twelve months and has just started to cool from those highs.

  • The operating story is unmistakably durable: Q1 revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $8.8B, gross margins hold around 52-54%, and operating margins run in the 33-36% range — the compounder profile most semi mega-caps only aspire to.
  • The upside case is genuinely quantified: Goldman lifted its 2028 wafer-fab-equipment (WFE) forecast to $281B and consensus models FY28 EPS of $67.24 growing from $38.13 in FY26 — that's a 76% two-year EPS expansion on a business already earning $38/share this year.
  • The valuation is the honest concern: at 56x trailing earnings, this trades at a 38% premium to peers, and the recent Aug 27 reversal on that framing is exactly what a market digesting an extended tape does — the tape's 4% below its 50-day is the setup.
  • The China-loss picture matters less than most think: pessimism on China revenue is largely priced in, and export-controls-related revenue was already de-emphasized in the FY26 base — that's a floor, not a headwind that keeps compressing.

The path if the compounding resumes is the Oct 14 Q3 print showing bookings continuing to accelerate and any positive commentary on 2027 order visibility — the tape re-rates on 'the AI-cycle's most defensible earnings stream' and the cooling ends. What extends the cooling is a $1,900-level test if a wave-C pullback plays out on the technical setup some name; that's when a 122% one-year run gives back 15-20% before finding real support at the 200-day.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — long-horizon 'own for 20 years' watchlists pairing ASML with NVDA/GOOGL/AMZN/PANW/PLTR, a 10% buyback over the decade against 5x business growth, Goldman lifting its 2028 wafer-fab-equipment forecast to $281B, China-loss pessimism already priced in — captures the fundamental case cleanly; the near-term technical caveat about a possible wave-C dip below $1,900 is what's shaping the current cooling trajectory.

What to watch: The Oct 14 Q3 print — bookings continuing to accelerate plus positive commentary on 2027 order visibility ends the cooling and restarts the compounding; a $1,900-level test on any macro semi wobble is what extends the pullback.

On the calendar: 2026-10-14 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment27 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

The conversation on ASML is dominated by long-horizon 'own for 20 years' watchlists pairing it with NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, PANW and PLTR. Posters cite a 10% buyback over the decade against 5x business growth, Goldman lifting its 2028 wafer-fab-equipment forecast to $281B, and China-loss pessimism already priced in. Near-term technical takes flag a possible wave-C dip below $1,900, but the structural bull case clearly leads.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASML

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASML.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $ASML

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; ASML Holding N.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+85.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
34.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
16.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
52.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
52.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 15, 2026$8.68$7.98+8.8%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$8.37$7.72+8.4%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$8.55$9.04-5.4%
Q3 2025Oct 15, 2025$6.41$6.27+2.2%
Next earningsWed, Oct 14·consensus EPS $11.74

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.8B+13.2%53.0%36.0%$7.15$-2.6B
Q4 FY25$9.7B+4.9%52.2%35.3%$7.35$10.6B
Q3 FY25$7.5B+0.7%51.6%32.8%$5.49$263.2M
Q2 FY25$7.7B+23.2%53.7%34.6%$5.90$357.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 34 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$43.2B$42.9B – $43.6B$38.13$32.30 – $41.5225
FY27$55.0B$51.0B – $56.8B$52.28$45.14 – $60.6027
FY28$66.4B$51.4B – $77.3B$67.24$46.31 – $80.1334
FY29$75.1B$65.2B – $81.4B$76.65$63.62 – $85.0331
FY30$80.8B$70.3B – $87.6B$97.30$80.76 – $107.9417

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.76%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+15.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 385.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.365-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 5 other (4 6-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

TSMC vs. ASML: Which Semiconductor Giant Is the Better Stock Buy?fool.com·3d agoHere's Why ASML (ASML) Fell More Than Broader Marketzacks.com·3d agoASML is Revising Expectations Higher as Sales Accelerate. Time to Buy?fool.com·3d agoASML Reverses as 38.62% Valuation Premium Tests AI Optimismgurufocus.com·4d agoNot Sandisk. Not Micron. This AI Semiconductor Powerhouse Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Memory Boomfool.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor Onshoring

More in Semiconductors

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$NVDA$MU$INTC$AVGO$AMD$MRVL$SKHY$PI
Voices on X · top 13 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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