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ASASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthBullish-leaning chatter
$ASML·$693B·Semiconductors·Technology
$1765.96-1.1%YTD+57.4%1Y+136.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 326 posts2026-07-11: 191 posts2026-07-12: 471 posts2026-07-13: 440 posts2026-07-14: 424 posts2026-07-15: 1,608 posts2026-07-16: 467 posts3,980+21%
Price updated 13m ago·X counts updated 20h ago
ASASML
$ASMLASML Holding N.V.
$1,765.96-1.06%4.0k posts+21%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ASML, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

EUV monopoly just posted a clean beat — the one company nobody can build around, priced accordingly.

ASML makes the extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines that print the smallest transistors in advanced chips — no ASML EUV means no leading-edge TSMC, Intel, or Samsung fabs. It's the closest thing to a true monopoly in semiconductors, and today's Q2 print (EPS $8.69 vs $7.98 consensus, an 8.9% beat) validates that positioning.

  • Revenue grew 13% YoY to $8.8B last quarter — the growth looks modest for a monopoly, but that's because 2025 was a shipment-timing trough; the ~$10.7B Q2 print already visible in the surprises table shows the ramp resuming.
  • Trades at 56x TTM earnings and 17x sales, but 32.5x forward EPS ($55 FY28 consensus) — the multiple is defensible only because there's no competitor within a decade of the EUV process, so pricing power is real.
  • Operating margin sits at 35% with a 53% gross margin and 35% ROIC — those are software-company economics on capital-intensive hardware, which is what a monopoly earns.
  • Dylan Patel's SemiAnalysis framing of TSMC and ASML as price-inelastic in a shortage environment is analytically right — every AI data center build requires ASML tools; there's no substitution path.
  • 52-week position 86th percentile and volume 2x the 30-day average — the tape is confirming the print, not fading it.

The October 21 earnings is the next look, and the setup is straightforward: another beat with a FY27 revenue guide above the current $50B consensus keeps the run alive. Anything less than a raised full-year outlook is where the tape starts asking whether the AI-capex cycle peaked. Real business at a real price — the ceiling is set by China-export policy, not by execution.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X take on the EUV monopoly and price-inelasticity is analytically right and today's beat validates it. Where the crowd is right to be cautious: 'funding shorts' language into the print was overconfident, and the real ceiling here is China-export policy — Washington still decides how much of ASML's addressable market it lets ship.

What to watch: Oct 21 Q3 earnings — need a raised FY27 revenue outlook. Anything less than an above-consensus full-year guide is where the tape asks whether the AI capex peak is behind us.

On the calendar: 2026-10-21 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment24 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

ASML chatter is fundamentally bullish into next week's earnings. Community reinforces the EUV monopoly framing ('the only company on Earth that can build the machines that print advanced chips'). Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis calls TSM and ASML price-inelastic in a shortage environment - a bullish structural read. ASML just shipped an XT:400M system to Grenoble/CEA-Leti (France). Bulls put ASML on top-pick lists alongside NVDA/AVGO/AMAT/LRCX and are already loading before the print. Small skepticism about a chase in bidding ASML which is 'funding shorts,' but net bullish.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ASML

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ASML.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $ASML

Partial — Sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the critical equipment enabling sub-7nm chip manufacturing; the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle creates tailwinds for one product line, not the full operation.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+54.2%YTD
+96.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
34.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
34.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
16.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
52.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
52.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 15, 2026$8.68$7.98+8.8%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$8.37$7.72+8.4%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$8.55$9.04-5.4%
Q3 2025Oct 15, 2025$6.41$6.27+2.2%
Next earningsWed, Oct 14·consensus EPS $9.14

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.8B+13.2%53.0%36.0%$7.15$-2.6B
Q4 FY25$9.7B+4.9%52.2%35.3%$7.35$10.6B
Q3 FY25$7.5B+0.7%51.6%32.8%$5.49$263.2M
Q2 FY25$7.7B+23.2%53.7%34.6%$5.90$357.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 27 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$40.0B$39.7B – $40.5B$32.53$30.51 – $34.9026
FY27$50.2B$46.5B – $57.2B$45.00$37.82 – $57.3526
FY28$57.2B$53.4B – $62.3B$55.01$44.92 – $70.2527
FY29$63.3B$59.1B – $69.0B$63.22$57.79 – $70.5813
FY30$68.0B$63.5B – $74.0B$71.03$64.92 – $79.2913

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.84%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+31.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 385.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.785-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 8 other (6 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Should You Buy, Sell or Hold ASML Stock Post Q2 Earnings?zacks.com·1d agoASML Q2 Earnings Call Lifts Outlook on AI-Driven Demandzacks.com·1d agoASML Holding's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Yzacks.com·1d agoPrice Prediction: ASML Could Hit $2,000+ in 12 Months With AI Demand Fueling Lithography Growth247wallst.com·1d agoASML: Q2 Pulled The Earnings Story Forwardseekingalpha.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor Onshoring

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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