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AMAMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.

$AMAT·$428B·Semiconductors·Technology
$458.39-0.7%YTD+104.7%1Y+190.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 38 posts2026-08-22: 22 posts2026-08-23: 18 posts460-19%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
AMAMAT
$AMATApplied Materials, Inc.
$458.39-0.71%460 posts-19%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AMAT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The pick-and-shovel semi-cap-equipment leader up 179% over 12 months, now digesting hard — Morgan Stanley just raised WFE forecasts.

Applied Materials makes the tools that fabs use to manufacture chips — the pick-and-shovel play on every silicon buildout, from Nvidia's Blackwell to memory to advanced packaging. It has almost tripled over 12 months and is now digesting in a pullback that has taken 20% off the highs.

How the setup shakes out:

  • The fundamentals are strong: Q3 revenue grew 11% year-on-year to $7.9B, operating margin at 32%, and Morgan Stanley just raised its 2026-2028 WFE forecasts materially — the multi-year capex ramp is being institutionally re-underwritten.
  • The pullback is real: shares are 16% below the 50-day, at only the 52nd percentile of the 52-week range despite being up 179% over 12 months, and today's -4.3% is following through — a cyclical digesting a run, not a broken thesis.
  • Valuation is where the debate sits: 42x earnings and 12x sales for semi-cap-equipment is well above the historical range (typically 15-25x P/E), so a lot of the WFE recovery is already priced in — a soft China update pushes shares back to the 200-day near $400.
  • Insider signal is quiet: officer Brice Hill sold $3.6M this month — a single filing, not a cluster; the board added a new director (Palkhiwala, former Qualcomm CFO), which reads as strategic strengthening.

The November 12 print defends the setup — WFE reiteration plus HBM/advanced-packaging strength keeps the run alive; soft China commentary or memory-capex pause triggers another 10-15% pullback toward the 200-day.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the crowd's core anchors (Morgan Stanley WFE raise, Mizuho outperform reiteration, congressional buying, 33% off ATH bottoming process) map to real signals; the honest note is 42x earnings prices in a lot of the multi-year WFE recovery already, so the setup is more asymmetric to the downside than the sentiment implies.

What to watch: November 12 earnings — the specific data points are WFE guide reiteration, HBM/advanced-packaging revenue trajectory, and China export commentary; a soft China number or memory-capex pause triggers another 10-15% pullback toward the 200-day near $400.

On the calendar: 2026-11-12 — Q4 FY26 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment19 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Applied Materials' thread turns bullish on WFE upgrades and political-flow follow-along. Posters flag Morgan Stanley raising its 2026 WFE forecast to $163B (+39% YoY) and Goldman lifting its 2028 forecast to $281B, naming AMAT a top pick alongside LRCX and ASML; Mizuho reiterates Outperform. Rep. Jared Moskowitz doubling down on AMAT with his House Foreign Affairs seat draws attention. Only counter-note is a poster shorting near $540 with a late-entry acknowledgement.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AMAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes CVD, PVD, etch, and CMP wafer processing equipment used by every major semiconductor fab to manufacture chips.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AMAT.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $AMAT

Partial — semiconductor exposure exists but product mix may not fully align with the AI capex driver; Applied Materials, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+94.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
42.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
21.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
29.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
39.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
49.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 13, 2026$3.50$3.40+2.9%
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$2.86$2.68+6.7%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$2.38$2.21+7.7%
Q3 2025Dec 12, 2025$2.17$2.11+2.8%
Next earningsThu, Nov 12·consensus EPS $4.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$7.9B+11.4%49.9%31.9%$3.53$832.0M
Q1 FY26$7.0B-2.1%49.0%29.9%$2.55$1.0B
Q4 FY25$6.8B-3.5%48.0%25.2%$2.39$2.0B
Q3 FY25$7.3B+7.7%48.8%30.6%$2.22$2.0B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 26 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$33.4B$33.0B – $33.8B$12.28$11.64 – $12.6026
FY27$43.1B$37.1B – $47.2B$16.93$13.02 – $19.6525
FY28$51.7B$43.8B – $60.9B$21.75$14.55 – $27.0220
FY29$54.2B$48.6B – $59.7B$22.68$19.66 – $25.6910

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.52%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-16.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+15.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 790.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.625-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 25Brice HillCFO7.5K sh$3.6MSellJun 30Gary E DickersonCEO20.0K sh$14.7MSellJun 29Gary E DickersonCEO58.3K sh$40.8MSellJun 18Prabu G. RajaPresident10.0K sh$6.3MSellJun 16Thomas J IannottiDirector9.3K sh$5.5MSellJun 16Omkaram NalamasuCTO24.3K sh$14.4MSellJun 16Gary E DickersonCEO71.7K sh$42.6MSellJun 15Omkaram NalamasuCTO10.7K sh$6.4MSellJun 15Gary E DickersonCEO11.3K sh$6.7MSellJun 15Timothy M DeaneSVP, Applied Global Services8.6K sh$5.1M
1–10 of 14
+ 15 other (9 awards · 4 gifts · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $AMAT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Applied Materials elected Akash Palkhiwala to its Board and Audit Committee effective August 27, 2026. Palkhiwala will receive the standard non-employee director package: $100,000 annual retainer (prorated), a $25,000 Audit Committee retainer (prorated), and RSUs worth $250,000 at grant date. Standard independent director appointment with customary compensation.

8-KShareholder voteMar 138-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 7 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

First Look: Nvidia, Marvell Earnings, Meta Settlement, and Fed in Focusgurufocus.com·4d ago5,539 Shares in Applied Materials, Inc. $AMAT Bought by Ausdal Financial Partners Inc.defenseworld.net·4d agoArini Capital Management Ltd Acquires Shares of 10,000 Applied Materials, Inc. $AMATdefenseworld.net·4d agoABS Investment Management LLC Takes Position in Applied Materials, Inc. $AMATdefenseworld.net·4d agoApplied Materials Appoints Akash Palkhiwala to Board of Directorsglobenewswire.com·4d ago

In themes

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AI InfrastructureSemiconductor Onshoring

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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