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UPUPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketBacked by solid revenue growth
$UPST·$2.6B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$26.93-2.4%YTD-38.8%1Y-67.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-17: 130 posts2026-07-18: 5 posts2026-07-19: 13 posts2026-07-20: 24 posts2026-07-21: 35 posts2026-07-22: 32 posts2026-07-23: 112 posts357-32%
Price updated 14h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
UPUPST
$UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
$26.93-2.39%357 posts-32%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $UPST, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-25

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

AI-underwriting name at 5% of its 52-week range going into a print that has the 2023 short-squeeze setup on paper.

Upstart is an AI-powered consumer-loan underwriter that partners with banks and credit unions to originate personal, auto and HELOC loans. Down 39% year to date and 67% over 12 months at 5% of its 52-week range with earnings on August 4, the setup is a battered name into a very specific squeeze framework.

Why the setup is a real coiled call option:

  • The scale has genuinely changed from 2024: Q2 revenue expected around $352M versus the $128M that drove the 220% rally out of Q2 2024 — that is nearly 3x the revenue base with essentially the same stock price, and if the market gives the model any credit for scaling economics, the re-rate mechanics are real.
  • The near-term fundamentals show operating leverage: last quarter revenue grew 40% YoY to $310M with gross margin of 96% and small positive operating margin — those are the numbers you show right before a beat-and-raise story reasserts itself, and the balance sheet expansion (held-for-sale loans +84% to $724M) suggests originations are ramping.
  • The Citi cut to $61 (from $80) with Buy maintained is the honest mixed signal: the sell-side is trimming targets even as they maintain conviction — that combination often precedes a print where a beat resets the analyst chorus higher, which is the specific dynamic bulls are trading.

The August 3 July-originations plus UMI update the day before earnings is the near-term micro-catalyst, and the August 4 print is the whole story. What triggers the squeeze is a revenue beat above $360M plus a raised full-year guide and specific commentary that the held-for-sale-loan balance is being turned over quickly. What breaks the setup is a revenue miss or any credit-loss disclosure — that combination validates the Citi target cut and takes the stock into the low-$20s.

Agrees with X sentimentAgrees with the bullish X framing — the 2023 setup analogue, the 3x revenue base at the same stock price, and the balance-sheet expansion are all substantive; the Citi target cut is a legitimate but insufficient counter that is exactly what a coiled setup should have.

What to watch: August 3 July-originations + UMI update and August 4 Q2 earnings: revenue vs the $352M consensus, full-year guide direction, held-for-sale-loan turnover, and any credit-loss disclosure — a miss or credit disclosure takes the stock to the low-$20s.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-24

Upstart is set up as a Q2 short-squeeze candidate similar to the 2023 setup that drove a 220% rally, with the stock trading around the same level it was heading into Q2 2024 when revenue was $128M — versus this quarter's expected $352M. Citi cut its target to $61 from $80 while maintaining Buy, and posters flag balance-sheet shifts with held-for-sale loans growing 84% to $724M as a catalyst to watch. President Sanjay Datta released a fresh interview and July originations plus UMI drop August 3 — one day before earnings.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $UPST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UPST.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI agents transacting autonomously on behalf of consumers could decouple purchase decisions from card rails, threatening the interchange fee model.

What this means for $UPST

Partial — AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models; partial earnings exposure to financial - credit services demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-0.3%YTD
-8.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
58.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
1.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
95.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.07$0.39-117.6%
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$0.46$0.47-2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.52$0.42+23.8%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$0.36$0.27+33.3%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $0.19

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$308.2M+39.8%98.1%-2.4%$-0.07$-140.3M
Q4 FY25$304.2M+34.4%90.8%6.3%$0.19$104.6M
Q3 FY25$285.9M+65.3%96.9%11.2%$0.33$-126.6M
Q2 FY25$265.1M+90.6%97.1%2.1%$0.06$-124.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$0.91$0.81 – $0.9910
FY27$1.9B$1.8B – $1.9B$1.91$1.76 – $2.1010
FY28$2.4B$2.3B – $2.4B$3.22$2.75 – $3.976
FY29$3.4B$3.3B – $3.5B$5.12$4.87 – $5.335

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.5%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-13.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-26.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β2.275-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 9Sanjay DattaPresident15.0K sh$456KSellMay 26Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks974 sh$28KSellMay 20Sanjay DattaPresident8.0K sh$230KSellMay 20Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer6.6K sh$191KSellMay 20Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks526 sh$15KSellMay 15Sanjay DattaPresident1.8K sh$54KSellMay 15Andrea BlankmeyerCFO7.0K sh$209KSellMay 15Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer727 sh$21KBuyMay 13Paul GuCEO50.0K sh$1.4MBuyMay 7Dave GirouardDirector170.2K sh$5.0M
1–10 of 15
+ 14 other (11 awards · 2 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $UPST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 23
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of UPST securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at UPST.

8-KShareholder voteMay 288-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 198-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Executive Officer. Individuals named in the filing include The Securities, Upstart Holdings. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 14 other (4 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·17h agoUpstart Receives Conditional Approval from the OCC to Establish Upstart Bankbusinesswire.com·2d agoUpstart: Undervalued Relative To Its Growth Storyseekingalpha.com·2d agoSezzle vs. Upstart: Which Fintech Stock Is the Better Buy Now?zacks.com·2d agoUpstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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