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PYPYPL

PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Rising onTrending downwardMoving on elevated volumeStrong bearish X conversation
$PYPL·$51B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$52.66-1.9%YTD-0.2%1Y-23.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 29 posts2026-08-23: 32 posts596-10%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
PYPYPL
$PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.
$52.67-1.85%596 posts-10%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PYPL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Stripe and Advent walked from the $50B takeover today — the deal was the whole thesis, and the stock is down 13% cracking last month's setup.

PayPal is the incumbent global payments platform that never quite figured out how to compete with the Apple/Stripe/Adyen wave. Today's -13% move is the collapse of the Stripe/Advent $53B takeover bid — the deal was the near-term thesis, and it just went away.

What actually changed:

  • The takeout premium is gone: Stripe and Advent withdrew the ~$80/share bid, so the range of outcomes narrowed from 'binary $80-85 vs $50' to just the standalone business — a 30-40% expected-value cut in a single day, which is what the tape is pricing.
  • The standalone economics are still reasonable: PayPal trades at 8x earnings, 1.2x sales, an EV/EBITDA of 5.8x and a 14% free-cash-flow yield — for a business earning 18% operating margins and 25% ROE, this is genuinely cheap, just not exciting enough to hold without a catalyst.
  • Growth is the real problem: revenue grew only 7% year-on-year last quarter and 3.7% the quarter before — that's not a business the market rewards with a multiple; without the takeout, PayPal has to prove it can accelerate before investors will pay for the FCF.
  • The Einhorn position at ~$50 is the current bull hook: he's holding through the drop and Burry publicly said he'd add in the mid-$40s — value-hunter accumulation, not fast-money interest.

Watch the level around $50 — a break confirms the deal-gap into the 52-week low; a hold plus a Q3 revenue acceleration on October 27 is what turns this from a busted deal into a real value trade.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the crowd's read that the deal collapse is the story is mechanically correct, and the technical entry zones ($45-50) plus the standalone value case (Einhorn, Burry) are fair anchors; the honest note is that 7% top-line growth doesn't compel a rerate without the takeout.

What to watch: October 27 earnings — the specific number is Q3 revenue growth versus the 7.2% Q1 print; an acceleration back above 10% turns the busted-deal into a real value trade, another sub-8% print with the deal gone confirms the drift toward the 52-week low.

On the calendar: 2026-10-27 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bearish sentiment65 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

PayPal sentiment is decisively bearish after Stripe and Advent walked away from their reported $50-$53B takeover pursuit, sending shares down roughly 12-13% in a single session. Posters repeat the incompetent-management refrain, note the stock is down about 77% over five years, and one poster contrasts a 27% YTD portfolio marred by a 31% PYPL drawdown. Michael Burry trimmed his position but signaled he'd add in the mid-$40s, and a handful of contrarians are dip-buying, but the loudest voices frame this as another leg lower.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PYPL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates PayPal and Venmo digital payments platforms processing transactions for merchants and consumers globally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PYPL.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

Consumer credit quality is the central variable; delinquency trends in credit cards and auto loans determine reserve requirements and loss expectations. Rate normalization improves NIM dynamics but a credit cycle turn would offset those gains.

What this means for $PYPL

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-1.9%YTD
-10.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
8.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
15.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
17.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
14.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
25.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
46.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 28, 2026$1.38$1.28+7.8%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.34$1.28+4.7%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$1.23$1.29-4.7%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$1.34$1.20+11.7%
Next earningsTue, Oct 27·consensus EPS $1.32

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.4B+7.2%45.6%17.8%$1.22$911.0M
Q4 FY25$8.7B+3.7%46.5%17.4%$1.54$2.2B
Q3 FY25$8.4B+7.3%46.0%18.1%$1.31$1.7B
Q2 FY25$8.3B+5.1%46.4%18.1%$1.30$692.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 31 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$34.6B$34.3B – $35.0B$5.36$5.25 – $5.5728
FY27$36.1B$35.6B – $36.7B$5.78$5.28 – $6.1031
FY28$37.7B$36.0B – $40.5B$6.29$5.55 – $7.0426
FY29$38.8B$37.9B – $40.1B$6.28$6.10 – $6.5625
FY30$42.4B$41.4B – $43.8B$7.58$7.36 – $7.9115

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.35%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 854.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.305-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 18Suzan KereerePresident4.2K sh$254KSellJul 29Frank KellerPres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal732 sh$43KSellJul 29Chris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer1.3K sh$78KBuyJun 15Jamie S MillerChief Fin & Op Officer6.1K sh$255KSellJun 3Chris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer552 sh$24KSellJun 3Frank KellerPres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal4.6K sh$196KSellJun 3Suzan KereerePresident3.4K sh$145KSellMay 19Suzan KereerePresident4.2K sh$184KSellApr 29Frank KellerPres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal10.7K sh$536KSellApr 29Chris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer1.3K sh$66K
+ 48 other (17 inkinds · 17 exempts · 14 awards) in window

See when $PYPL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) filed an 8-K on May 19, 2026 disclosing a personnel change (Item 5.02) and annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). PayPal is a San Jose, California-based digital payments company listed on Nasdaq. The excerpt does not identify the specific executive; an officer change at a fintech giant can be material if at the C-suite level.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

PYPL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-30). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for PYPL on 2026-03-26, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 258-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

PYPL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-03-25). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Chief Executive Officer of Block Inc. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 14 other (4 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Intuit or PayPal: Which Fintech Is Built for Future Growth?zacks.com·12h agoStocks Retreat as U.S.-Iran Tensions Flareschaeffersresearch.com·15h agoPayPal: An Abandoned Buyout Offer Likely To Make The Investment Case Strongerseekingalpha.com·16h agoPayPal's Easy Money Is Goneseekingalpha.com·3d agoStock Market Today, Aug. 28: PayPal Falls 13% After Stripe and Advent Abandon $50B Takeoverfool.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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