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UPUPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

$UPST·$2.6B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$28.68-1.4%YTD-31.1%1Y-58.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 7 posts142+4%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
UPUPST
$UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
$28.68-1.38%142 posts+4%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $UPST, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

AI-lending name with fresh insider buying and BAC scaling — the tape is testing whether $29 holds.

Upstart is the AI-driven lending platform whose stock has been chopped hard by concerns about credit cycles and BAC's rollout pace. Shares are -31% YTD and -61% TTM at $29, but insiders bought heavily around this level.

  • Revenue and EPS are growing: quarterly revenue ran $265M / $286M / $304M / $308M at a 96% gross margin, quarterly EPS at $0.06 / $0.33 / $0.19 / $-0.07 — analysts model $1.42B and $0.90 EPS for the full year, so at $29 the stock is at roughly 32x forward, a defensible multiple for a lending-tech business coming out of a tough cycle.
  • The insider-buying signal is unusually large: insiders bought $6.5M around $27 — that's a specific vote of confidence at a well-defined technical level, and it lands into the $29 area holding after 4-5 tests.
  • The bank-of-America integration is the specific bullish lever: Q2 unsecured revenue +23% QoQ with BAC only +5.4% (contribution profit inflected) is management-cited data that shows the BAC relationship starting to inflect on contribution margin, not just revenue — which is what actually matters for the business's earnings model.

A Nov 3 print that shows sustained BAC scaling and unsecured revenue growth extends the coil into a real breakout; another insider-disposal print, a specific bank-partner delay, or a soft credit-quality quarter is what invalidates the setup.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bullish framing tracks the mechanics — the $6.5M insider buys, the BAC contribution-margin inflection, and the 4-5-test $29 level are all real; the sideline-wanting-confirmation minority is a fair chart-focus caveat.

What to watch: The Nov 3 Q3 print — BAC-partnership metrics, unsecured revenue growth, credit-quality trends, and any commentary on other bank partners. A credit-quality miss or an insider-disposal escalation is what invalidates the coil.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment12 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Sentiment on Upstart is confidently bullish — bulls anchor on Q2 originations of $3.64B and ~535K loans (roughly 1 in 16 U.S. unsecured personal loans, ~8% share by count), Auto originations +264% YoY, HELOC +139%, and a big Q2 improvement in return on borrower acquisition cost. CEO Paul Gu's national bank charter pitch is framed as collapsing the state-by-state 36% patchwork into a single rulebook rather than a cheap-deposits play. Chartists watch a falling-wedge inside the "K23" handle for a $60 target.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $UPST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UPST.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

Consumer credit quality is the central variable; delinquency trends in credit cards and auto loans determine reserve requirements and loss expectations. Rate normalization improves NIM dynamics but a credit cycle turn would offset those gains.

What this means for $UPST

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-0.2%YTD
-8.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
58.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
1.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
95.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$0.16$0.18-10.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.07$0.39-117.6%
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$0.46$0.47-2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.52$0.42+23.8%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $0.60

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$308.2M+39.8%98.1%-2.4%$-0.07$-140.3M
Q4 FY25$304.2M+34.4%90.8%6.3%$0.19$104.6M
Q3 FY25$285.9M+65.3%96.9%11.2%$0.33$-126.6M
Q2 FY25$265.1M+90.6%97.1%2.1%$0.06$-124.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.4B$1.4B – $1.5B$0.90$0.80 – $0.9810
FY27$1.9B$1.8B – $1.9B$1.90$1.75 – $2.0910
FY28$2.4B$2.1B – $2.6B$3.19$2.48 – $3.896
FY29$3.4B$3.3B – $3.6B$5.11$4.76 – $5.455

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.10%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-5.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-15.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 81.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.175-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 25Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks913 sh$27KSellAug 20Sanjay DattaPresident8.9K sh$251KSellAug 20Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer7.7K sh$216KSellAug 20Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks586 sh$16KSellAug 19Sanjay DattaPresident10.0K sh$315KSellAug 19Andrea BlankmeyerCFO3.0K sh$88KSellAug 17Sanjay DattaPresident2.0K sh$60KSellAug 17Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer814 sh$24KSellAug 17Andrea BlankmeyerCFO7.2K sh$211KSellJun 9Sanjay DattaPresident15.0K sh$456K
1–10 of 19
+ 9 other (7 awards · 2 exempts) in window

See when $UPST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 23
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of UPST securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at UPST.

8-KShareholder voteMay 288-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 198-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Executive Officer. Individuals named in the filing include The Securities, Upstart Holdings. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
+ 11 other (3 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Down 30% in 2026, Is Upstart an AI Stock to Buy Right Now?fool.com·3d agoAST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Outer Space Upstart Is a Better Buy in 2026?fool.com·4d agoUpstart Co-founder and CEO to Participate in Fireside Chat at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference 2026businesswire.com·6d agoIs Upstart Stock a Buy After Falling 55% This Year? Here's What to Know as One Insider Disposes of Sharesfool.com·10d agoAn Upstart Insider Filing Involves $216,000. Here's How It Connects to a New Bank Charterfool.com·10d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 9 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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