TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$UPST
UPUPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

$UPST·$2.2B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$23.56-4.8%YTD-47.7%1Y-50.7%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
UPUPST
$UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
$23.56-4.81%471 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

On X

The complete picture of $UPST on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

471X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $UPST's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Mixed sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-09

Upstart's August originations came in at $1,342M — down 3.9% MoM but up 56.6% YoY — with September UMI flat at 1.50. Some reviews grew while originations declined, possibly indicating smaller loan sizes. Chartists watch $UPST retesting the 50DMA near $30 for a bounce; the direction is not yet decided.

Read what X is saying about $UPST

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
Free, forever. No credit card.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $UPST — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Broken storyStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

The AI-lender thesis isn't broken — but it isn't working either, and the stock is pricing exactly that.

Upstart is the AI-powered consumer lender whose 2026 drawdown reflects a shift from 'the next FICO' narrative to a slow-origination reality. The business is still growing but at a pace that doesn't justify the former multiple.

  • The data mix is messy: August originations hit $1.34B — down 3.9% MoM but up 56.6% YoY — while September's UMI (Upstart Macro Index) stayed flat at 1.50, and growing reviews with declining originations imply smaller loan sizes rather than more borrowers.
  • The P&L shows the thesis strain: Q2 revenue grew 40% YoY to $308M but operating margin was -2.4% and the trailing EPS missed Street estimates by 118% two prints ago — this is a company whose unit economics are improving but not accelerating at the rate needed to re-rate.

At 0.8% of its 52-week range and 29% below the 200-day, the stock has essentially priced an operating business that doesn't earn money consistently. Nov 3 earnings is the test — a clean origination-growth print with contribution margin lifting is what restarts the move; another flat UMI with origination growth decelerating confirms the stalled read.

Agrees with X sentimentThe mixed read on origination data vs the chart retest is honest — this is a stock whose fundamentals are OK but not good enough, and the setup is 'wait for the catalyst' rather than directional. The 50DMA retest talk is tactical trading, not a thesis.

What to watch: Nov 3 Q3 earnings — origination growth rate, contribution margin, UMI direction, and FY27 guide. Origination growth re-accelerating with margin lifting is the trigger; flat UMI with decel is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-03 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dslow growth

Read the AI verdict on $UPST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UPST.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI-driven underwriting (Upstart, SoFi) and BNPL (Affirm, Klarna) continue reshaping consumer credit while Visa and Mastercard card networks hold on premium-spend mix.

What this means for $UPST

Partial — AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models.

Industry benchmark

19-name peer basket
-13.0%YTD
-16.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
58.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
1.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
95.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$0.16$0.18-10.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.07$0.39-117.6%
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$0.46$0.47-2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.52$0.42+23.8%
Next earningsTue, Nov 3·consensus EPS $0.21

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$308.2M+39.8%98.1%-2.4%$-0.07$-140.3M
Q4 FY25$304.2M+34.4%90.8%6.3%$0.19$104.6M
Q3 FY25$285.9M+65.3%96.9%11.2%$0.33$-126.6M
Q2 FY25$265.1M+90.6%97.1%2.1%$0.06$-124.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$0.70$0.63 – $0.7510
FY27$1.9B$1.8B – $1.9B$1.84$1.72 – $2.0410
FY28$2.4B$2.2B – $2.7B$2.95$2.69 – $3.405
FY29$3.4B$3.3B – $3.6B$5.11$4.78 – $5.442

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.4%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-11.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-24.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 83.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today5.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.175-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuySep 10Paul GuCEO50.0K sh$1.3MSellSep 8Sanjay DattaPresident116.0K sh$3.2MSellAug 25Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks913 sh$27KSellAug 20Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks586 sh$16KSellAug 20Sanjay DattaPresident8.9K sh$251KSellAug 20Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer7.7K sh$216KSellAug 19Sanjay DattaPresident10.0K sh$315KSellAug 19Andrea BlankmeyerCFO3.0K sh$88KSellAug 17Sanjay DattaPresident2.0K sh$60KSellAug 17Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer814 sh$24K
1–10 of 21
+ 9 other (6 awards · 3 exempts) in window

See when $UPST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 23
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of UPST securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at UPST.

8-KShareholder voteMay 288-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 198-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Executive Officer. Individuals named in the filing include The Securities, Upstart Holdings. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

+ 6 other (3 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 13G) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

2 Glorious Growth Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist If the Stock Market Crashesfool.com·2d agoIs Trending Stock Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) a Buy Now?zacks.com·3d agoFintech Stocks in Focus as AI and Digital Innovation Drive Growthzacks.com·4d agoUpstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Knowzacks.com·4d agoUpstart Expands Credit Union Network With Denver Partnershipzacks.com·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

More in Financial - Credit Services

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$SOFI$V$MA$PYPL$AXP$AFRM$ORBS$WU
Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $UPST on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport