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UPUPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

$UPST·$3.1B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$29.51-4.4%YTD-33.0%1Y-62.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 75 posts2026-07-12: 131 posts2026-07-13: 131 posts2026-07-14: 99 posts2026-07-15: 145 posts2026-07-16: 125 posts2026-07-17: 130 posts845+19%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 2h ago
UPUPST
$UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
$29.51-4.44%845 posts+19%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $UPST, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

AI credit decisioning finding its footing — $1.5B originations up 48% YoY is the specific proof.

Upstart is the AI-native consumer-credit decisioning platform whose thesis is replacing FICO-based underwriting with model-driven risk. The stock is deeply pulled back but the origination data is now confirming the recovery.

Why the setup reads asymmetric:

  • The origination inflection is the specific proof: June originations of $1.5B up 48% year-on-year is the exact 'growth is back' signal Needham's $40 target references — this is data, not narrative.
  • Fundamentals show the pivot to profitability: 96% gross margin with 4% operating margin — meaning Upstart has finally turned the loop from investment mode toward operating leverage, though free cash flow is still negative at 10%.
  • The tape has completely reset: sitting at 11% of the 52-week range and 17% below the 200-day, meaning any mean-reversion is meaningful — coiled setup at the compressed base.
  • The check is macro-credit sensitivity: 2.7x debt-to-equity plus the reliance on institutional loan-purchase demand means Upstart's throughput depends on credit-market appetite — a consumer-weakness signal would compress the model faster than the P&L reflects.

Aug 4 earnings is the trigger. A number confirming origination pace plus stable loan-purchase demand extends the leg; a soft origination print with tightening loan-buyer appetite is the specific setup for the drawdown to extend.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish on the Needham target raise and the June origination number, and the fundamentals genuinely justify a turnaround read — a 48% YoY origination inflection is the specific evidence of the AI-underwriting thesis working. The check the corpus isn't sizing is loan-buyer appetite; that's the specific external variable that can pause Upstart's throughput.

What to watch: The Aug 4 print — origination trajectory, loan-buyer appetite commentary, and any FY guide change. Above-guide originations plus stable loan-buyer demand extend the leg; a loan-buyer-appetite decel is what compresses the setup.

On the calendar: 2026-08-04 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Upstart chatter is bullish. Needham raised UPST PT to $40 with Buy - June originations hit $1.5B, up 48% YoY. 'Growth is back.' Community frames UPST as 'the AI-native next-generation credit decisioning company taking aim at decades of legacy underwriting.' UMI reporting streamlined. Community members compliment Paul Gu's UMI commentary and remain bullish. Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $UPST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $UPST.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI agents transacting autonomously on behalf of consumers could decouple purchase decisions from card rails, threatening the interchange fee model.

What this means for $UPST

Neutral — AI-powered consumer lending marketplace connecting borrowers to bank partners using non-FICO credit models; end markets and revenue mix have limited overlap with the consumer credit resilience and AI agent payment channel expansion.

Industry benchmark

14-name peer basket
+3.1%YTD
-13.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
58.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
1.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
95.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.7Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-0.07$0.39-117.6%
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$0.46$0.47-2.1%
Q3 2025Nov 4, 2025$0.52$0.42+23.8%
Q2 2025Aug 5, 2025$0.36$0.27+33.3%
Next earningsTue, Aug 4·consensus EPS $0.19

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$308.2M+39.8%98.1%-2.4%$-0.07$-140.3M
Q4 FY25$304.2M+34.4%90.8%6.3%$0.19$104.6M
Q3 FY25$285.9M+65.3%96.9%11.2%$0.33$-126.6M
Q2 FY25$265.1M+90.6%97.1%2.1%$0.06$-124.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$0.91$0.82 – $0.9810
FY27$1.9B$1.8B – $1.9B$1.91$1.79 – $2.0810
FY28$2.4B$2.3B – $2.4B$3.21$2.74 – $3.956
FY29$3.4B$3.3B – $3.5B$5.12$4.91 – $5.335

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.11%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-17.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 81.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.275-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 9Sanjay DattaPresident15.0K sh$456KSellMay 26Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks974 sh$28KSellMay 20Sanjay DattaPresident8.0K sh$230KSellMay 20Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer6.6K sh$191KSellMay 20Natalia MirgorodskayaSee Remarks526 sh$15KSellMay 15Sanjay DattaPresident1.8K sh$54KSellMay 15Andrea BlankmeyerCFO7.0K sh$209KSellMay 15Scott DarlingChief Legal Officer727 sh$21KBuyMay 13Paul GuCEO50.0K sh$1.4MBuyMay 7Dave GirouardDirector170.2K sh$5.0M
1–10 of 15
+ 15 other (11 awards · 3 exempts · 1 other) in window

See when $UPST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 23
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of UPST securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at UPST.

8-KShareholder voteMay 288-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 198-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Executive Officer. Individuals named in the filing include The Securities, Upstart Holdings. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 108-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
+ 14 other (4 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Knowzacks.com·1d agoUpstart Holdings Inc (UPST) Stock Up 4.5% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 61/100gurufocus.com·8d agoUpstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Notezacks.com·9d agoUpstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·10d agoUpstart Stock Analysis: Buy or Sell This AI Stock?fool.com·11d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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