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AFAFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 33% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (1.6K/wk), no spike
$AFRM·$28B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$81.71-3.2%YTD+8.9%1Y+23.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 253 posts2026-07-10: 263 posts2026-07-11: 127 posts2026-07-12: 214 posts2026-07-13: 281 posts2026-07-14: 213 posts2026-07-15: 269 posts1,638+24%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 10h ago
AFAFRM
$AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
$81.71-3.24%1.6k posts+24%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AFRM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

BNPL leader with 33% growth and a fresh wave of sell-side upgrades — the $92 Fibonacci breakout level is the whole near-term trade.

Affirm is the leading US buy-now-pay-later provider — the transparent, no-late-fee version integrated at Amazon, Shopify, Walmart, and hundreds of thousands of smaller merchants. It's finally getting the sell-side to catch up to what the numbers already show.

Where the case sits:

  • Growth is genuinely durable and accelerating: revenue grew 33% year-over-year in Q1 (up from 30% a year ago) at a 68% gross margin, and the last three EPS prints beat consensus by 32-105% — the underwriting-plus-scale flywheel is compounding, and the recent 76% beat shows credit is holding as the loan book grows.
  • The sell-side is catching up in a hurry: JPM raised to $90, TD Cowen to $117, Barclays initiated Overweight at $97 — three sell-side positive resets in one week point to a real consensus reset on take rate and volume, which historically precedes a fundamental multiple expansion.
  • The financing capacity is being expanded ahead of demand: revolving credit facility grew from $330M to $675M with Barclays as agent on June 18 — that's management pre-financing an acceleration, not defending a weak quarter.

Aug 27 earnings decide whether the sell-side upgrade cycle sticks: another 30%+ revenue print with take rate holding and credit quality intact would push shares through the $92.56 Fibonacci breakout level toward $110-120, while a soft GMV number or any credit-quality slippage would let the beta-3.7 tape give back the recent 16% run in short order.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree with the bullish X read — JPM's $90 raise, TD Cowen's $117, Barclays's $97 Overweight init, and the $92.56 Fibonacci breakout are all consistent with the 33% growth and the 76% Q1 EPS beat in the bundle. The Amazon + Shopify exposure the thread names is exactly what's driving the volume line.

What to watch: Aug 27 earnings: GMV growth, take rate, delinquency/credit trend, and FY guide. A GMV miss or a delinquency uptick is what pauses the sell-side upgrade cycle.

On the calendar: 2026-08-27 — Q4 FY26 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment8 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

Affirm chatter is bullish momentum. JPMorgan raised AFRM PT to $90 from $80 (Overweight). Barclays initiated AFRM with Overweight and $97 PT. AFRM is +96% since a March call at $44. Chart bulls flag the 0.786 log Fibonacci level at $92.56 as significant - a breakout would be the first-ever price action there. Community broadly long BNPL adoption thesis (over half of Millennials/GenZ using BNPL). Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AFRM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AFRM.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

No material change from last week — Enterprise software infrastructure is in a multiple compression phase (-16.

What this means for $AFRM

Neutral — Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America; limited exposure means the cloud-native adoption and AI security spend despite multiple compression is not a near-term catalyst or headwind.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-11.8%YTD
-13.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.17+76.1%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.37$0.28+32.1%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.23$0.11+105.2%
Q2 2025Aug 28, 2025$0.20$0.12+61.9%
Next earningsThu, Aug 27·consensus EPS $0.33

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.0B+32.6%65.9%19.5%$0.31$325.4M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+29.6%69.4%10.5%$0.39$118.0M
Q1 FY26$933.3M+33.6%67.7%6.8%$0.24$320.2M
Q4 FY25$876.4M+33.0%67.7%6.6%$0.21$23.5M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$4.2B – $4.3B$1.25$1.15 – $1.4123
FY27$5.3B$5.1B – $5.6B$1.80$1.36 – $2.3524
FY28$6.6B$6.6B – $6.6B$2.57$1.84 – $3.5421
FY29$8.0B$7.7B – $8.5B$3.74$3.54 – $4.0810

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.68%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+13.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+23.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 281.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.675-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 26Michael LinfordCOO100.0K sh$8.0MSellMay 13Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$130KSellApr 14Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$110K
+ 35 other (14 exempts · 13 inkinds · 5 awards · 2 others · 1 conversion) in window

See when $AFRM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 63
AI summary

Ryan M. Schneider filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), effective July 1, 2026, reporting no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine administrative filing required upon joining the board — no ownership stake or economic exposure is disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings expanded its revolving credit facility significantly on June 18, 2026, with Barclays Bank as agent: aggregate commitment grew from $330 million to $675 million, and maturity was extended two years to June 18, 2029. The facility is unsecured and bears interest at SOFR plus 1.50% or base rate plus 0.50%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes; no amounts were drawn at closing. The doubling of available liquidity is a materially positive development, strengthening Affirm's balance sheet flexibility as it scales its buy-now-pay-later business.

+ 8 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Dipped More Than Broader Market Todayzacks.com·3d agoAffirm: Easy Money Will Be Gone By The Time It Feels Safeseekingalpha.com·3d agoAffirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Knowzacks.com·6d agoHere's Why Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is a Strong Momentum Stockzacks.com·8d agoAffirm Holdings (AFRM) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Considerzacks.com·10d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 5 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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