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TickerTalks›$AFRM
AFAFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX chatter picking upBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$AFRM·$27B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$74.01-2.5%YTD-1.3%1Y+7.2%
Price updated 5h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AFAFRM
$AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
$74.01-2.52%478 posts1.5×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AFRM on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

478X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.5×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AFRM's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's running louder than usual, louder than 95% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-15

Loop Capital initiates Affirm at Buy with a $105 PT calling out 25%+ GMV/revenue growth, and a 2500x 80/100 debit-spread whale buy at the 200DMA reinforces the setup. Posters watch ~$68 support after losing $70.

Read what X is saying about $AFRM

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AFRM — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

A BNPL leader clearing its multiple with Loop Capital at Buy — the Nov 5 print is the test of a quiet rebuild.

Affirm is the enterprise-grade buy-now-pay-later leader whose integrations with major retailers (Crate & Barrel joining the list) plus the direct-to-consumer Affirm Card have been the growth vectors through 2026. Loop Capital's Buy initiation at $105 PT puts a specific GMV/revenue growth bar on the setup.

  • The P&L has been firing: Q4 revenue grew 33% YoY to $1.04B at a 19% operating margin, with EPS beats of 1230% and 76% on the trailing two prints — the business is converting GMV growth into real earnings at a pace that keeps surprising the Street in both directions on the way up.
  • The product mix is improving: the Affirm Card expanding DTC reach plus retailer additions means the GMV base is diversifying away from pure-play BNPL at checkout, which both improves unit economics and raises the ceiling on the TAM.

At 56% of 52-week range going into Nov 5 earnings with a 2500-contract $80/$100 debit spread already on tape, this is institutional positioning for a continuation beat. 25%+ GMV growth plus Affirm Card metrics is the trigger for the $105 target; a sub-20% GMV number or any delinquency-trend spike is the invalidation.

Agrees with X sentimentThe Loop Capital Buy initiation and the whale debit-spread print are specific institutional datapoints that line up with the fundamentals. The $68 support/$70 lose level is tactical trading, not a thesis.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q1 earnings — GMV growth, revenue minus transaction costs direction, Affirm Card active users, and delinquency trend. 25%+ GMV plus stable delinquencies is the trigger; sub-20% GMV or delinquency spike is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q1 earnings

event ahead 30dai fintech

Read the AI verdict on $AFRM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AFRM.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI-driven underwriting (Upstart, SoFi) and BNPL (Affirm, Klarna) continue reshaping consumer credit while Visa and Mastercard card networks hold on premium-spend mix.

What this means for $AFRM

Partial — Runs buy-now-pay-later installment lending integrated at merchant checkout; growth play on digital commerce credit in North America.

Industry benchmark

19-name peer basket
-15.5%YTD
-19.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
56.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
11.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
5.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
67.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 27, 2026$4.62$0.35+1230.3%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.30$0.17+76.1%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$0.37$0.28+32.1%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.23$0.11+105.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $0.38

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$1.0B+32.6%65.9%19.5%$0.31$325.4M
Q2 FY26$1.1B+29.6%69.4%10.5%$0.39$118.0M
Q1 FY26$933.3M+33.6%67.7%6.8%$0.24$320.2M
Q4 FY25$876.4M+33.0%67.7%6.6%$0.21$23.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 24 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.2B$4.2B – $4.2B$1.24$1.14 – $1.4023
FY27$5.5B$5.4B – $5.6B$1.99$1.37 – $2.6124
FY28$6.8B$6.6B – $7.1B$2.90$2.28 – $3.5821
FY29$8.5B$7.6B – $9.6B$3.97$3.39 – $4.9817
FY30$11.4B$10.6B – $12.1B$5.56$5.09 – $6.0711

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.66%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+0.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+10.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 283.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.825-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 9Robert O'hareCFO65.6K sh$5.2MSellSep 14Siphelele JiyaneChief Accounting Officer27.0K sh$1.9MSellSep 4Siphelele JiyaneChief Accounting Officer25.0K sh$1.8MSellSep 3Katherine AdkinsChief Legal Officer41.7K sh$3.1MSellSep 2Robert O'hareCFO5.9K sh$436KSellSep 1Katherine AdkinsChief Legal Officer41.7K sh$2.9MSellSep 1Robert O'hareCFO15.7K sh$1.1MSellAug 28Michael LinfordCOO79.2K sh$7.1MSellAug 12Watson Noel BertramDirector2.0K sh$156KSellJun 26Michael LinfordCOO100.0K sh$8.0M
1–10 of 11
+ 41 other (18 exempts · 14 inkinds · 9 awards) in window

See when $AFRM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings released its Q4 fiscal 2026 Shareholder Letter (quarter ended June 30, 2026) disclosing financial results including non-GAAP measures with GAAP reconciliations. The filing also covers a 5.02 officer/director event disclosed alongside the earnings. Standard quarterly earnings release; full financials are in Exhibit 99.1.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 63
AI summary

Ryan M. Schneider filed an initial Form 3 as a newly appointed director of Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM), effective July 1, 2026, reporting no securities beneficially owned. This is a routine administrative filing required upon joining the board — no ownership stake or economic exposure is disclosed.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 258-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Affirm Holdings expanded its revolving credit facility significantly on June 18, 2026, with Barclays Bank as agent: aggregate commitment grew from $330 million to $675 million, and maturity was extended two years to June 18, 2029. The facility is unsecured and bears interest at SOFR plus 1.50% or base rate plus 0.50%. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes; no amounts were drawn at closing. The doubling of available liquidity is a materially positive development, strengthening Affirm's balance sheet flexibility as it scales its buy-now-pay-later business.

+ 9 other (5 13Gs · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Wall Street Analysts Believe Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Could Rally 29%: Here's is How to Tradezacks.com·17h agoInvestors Heavily Search Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM): Here is What You Need to Knowzacks.com·17h agoAffirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) Stock Rated “Moderate Buy” by Wall Street Analystsdefenseworld.net·2d agoAffirm stock slips after US inflation data: here's why it may fall to $60 sooninvezz.com·3d agoAffirm Falls 10% as Inflation Print Lifts Yields; Klarna Drops 3%, PayPal Barely Budges247wallst.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Consumer Fintech & Neobanks

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Voices on X · top 5 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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