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TickerTalks›$ORCL
ORORCL

Oracle Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 22% YoY at strong marginsRecent insider buyingConsistent chatter on X (3.0K/wk), no spike
$ORCL·$408B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$128.22-4.6%YTD-27.5%1Y-59.0%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ORORCL
$ORCLOracle Corporation
$128.22-4.65%3.0k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $ORCL on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

3,026X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ORCL's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bearish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data31 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment is heavily bearish — the loudest voices are calling ORCL "Bear Stearns" with OpenAI as the 2027 Lehman, pointing to a 5-year CDS at a record 220+ bps, Ellison pledging $57.6B of stock as personal collateral, and OpenAI's "pause" on frontier training as a Force Majeure tell. Bulls counter with a $664B backlog, EPS up 52% while market cap halved, and $250 Street targets, but the dominant mood is distrust rather than opportunity.

Read what X is saying about $ORCL

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ORCL — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

A hyperscaler with a legitimate AI book sitting under a credit-and-counterparty cloud the market can't price away.

Oracle is a database company that has reinvented itself as the fourth hyperscaler on the back of a massive OpenAI compute deal and a $664B RPO book. The fundamentals say re-rate; the credit market and the stock say contagion.

  • The business is still growing fast and earning real money: last quarter revenue was up 22% YoY with a 33% operating margin and EPS of $1.28, and the backlog implies the AI capex cycle is already committed through the end of the decade — EPS up 52% while the market cap halved is where this gets interesting.
  • But the credit tape is screaming: 5-year CDS at a record 220+ bps, Larry Ellison pledging $57.6B of personal stock as collateral, and OpenAI's reported 'pause' on frontier training together add a counterparty-risk layer that pulled the stock down 28% YTD to the bottom 14% of its 52-week range.

What restarts the move is specific: concrete evidence the OpenAI contract isn't being renegotiated or deferred, plus any sign the CDS spread is coming in. Until then the breaking-down tape wins over the backlog math — a Dec 9 earnings miss on cloud revenue is where the thesis cracks for good.

What to watch: Dec 9 earnings — Oracle Cloud revenue growth (needs 60%+), RPO change, and any specific commentary on the OpenAI contract pacing. CDS tightening below 180 bps is the first non-fundamental tell that the overhang is lifting.

On the calendar: 2026-12-09 — Q2 FY27 earnings

credit overhangcounterparty risk

Read the AI verdict on $ORCL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides enterprise database software, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and cloud ERP and HCM applications to large organizations.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ORCL.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure capex bifurcates the cohort — GPU-cloud providers and AI-native security platforms absorbing enterprise spend, while legacy SaaS faces multiple compression. GPU-cloud platforms and AI-native security tools absorb enterprise spend while legacy SaaS faces multiple compression.

What this means for $ORCL

Partial — Provides enterprise database software, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and cloud ERP and HCM applications to large organizations.; zero-trust identity is foundational to AI infrastructure security but faces competitive intensity from platform-native IAM offerings.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
37.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
30.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
57.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
66.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Sep 10, 2026$1.92$1.74+10.3%
Q1 2026Jun 10, 2026$2.11$1.96+7.7%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$1.79$1.70+5.3%
Q3 2025Dec 10, 2025$2.26$1.64+37.8%
Next earningsMon, Dec 14·consensus EPS $1.88

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$17.2B+21.7%62.2%32.8%$1.28$-11.5B
Q2 FY26$16.1B+14.2%66.5%29.5%$2.15$-10.0B
Q1 FY26$14.9B+12.2%67.3%28.7%$1.04$-362.0M
Q4 FY25$15.9B+11.3%70.2%32.1%$1.22$-2.9B

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 30 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$67.3B$67.0B – $67.4B$7.49$7.03 – $7.5830
FY27$90.4B$89.8B – $91.1B$8.14$8.03 – $8.2930
FY28$131.4B$125.1B – $137.9B$11.02$10.20 – $12.1430
FY29$181.4B$146.7B – $200.7B$15.46$9.67 – $17.8526
FY30$218.5B$194.7B – $230.2B$19.76$16.97 – $21.1416
FY31$264.2B$235.4B – $278.3B$27.84$23.90 – $29.7812

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.7%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-11.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-20.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.9B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.775-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuySep 29Stephen H RusckowskiDirector25.0K sh$3.5MSellSep 22Maria SmithEVP, Chief Accounting Officer2.6K sh$399KSellSep 22Michael D. SiciliaCEO22.6K sh$3.4MSellSep 16Michael D. SiciliaCEO10.9K sh$1.5MSellJun 24Jeffrey HenleyChair400.0K sh$63.7M
+ 49 other (24 exempts · 14 inkinds · 11 awards) in window

See when $ORCL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 23424B5
AI summary

ORCL filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on 2026-06-23. This represents dilution happening now.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 143
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ORCL on 2026-05-14, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ORCL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-12). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 9 other (2 proxys · 2 8-Ks · 1 routine 8-K · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Why Oracle (ORCL) Dipped More Than Broader Market Todayzacks.com·9h agoNot Alphabet. Not Microsoft.fool.com·10h agoAI Cloud Spending Is Splitting Companies Into the Funded and the Stretchedfool.com·17h agoWho’s Really Paying for the AI Boom? The Bond Market Is Starting to Ask247wallst.com·19h agoOracle's Cloud Backlog Just Hit $664 Billion. Here's What a $1,000 Investment Could Be Worth If It Converts to Revenue on Schedule.fool.com·21h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise Software

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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