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ORORCL

Oracle Corporation

$ORCL·$423B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$149.07-1.2%YTD-26.2%1Y-33.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 224 posts2026-08-22: 134 posts1,691+8%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
ORORCL
$ORCLOracle Corporation
$149.07-1.18%1.7k posts+8%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ORCL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

AI-credit stress is the loudest tape trade — and Oracle prints in nine days.

Oracle is the enterprise database and cloud-infrastructure company whose AI compute story became a market-favorite last year and has since been repriced hard. The stock is down 26% YTD and 37% over twelve months, and it walks into a Sept 8 print with credit markets flashing the loudest warning they've flashed on this name in twenty years.

  • The core business is still huge and productive: quarterly revenue moved from $15.9B to $14.9B to $16.1B to $17.2B, gross margin sits around 66%, and analysts model $67.3B of full-year revenue and $7.49 EPS — a real earnings machine that would justify a much richer multiple in a normal tape.
  • The credit signal is the whole story right now: Oracle's 5-year CDS just spiked past 200bps, a record high — worse than the 2008 GFC peak — as the market prices AI-datacenter capex burn against uneven cloud-revenue conversion, and Michael Burry has publicly added to his ORCL short into that widening.
  • The management footprint isn't reassuring: OpenAI's head of data centers leaving added noise around the biggest external AI-compute contract Oracle is priced on, and a Gartner Magic Quadrant leadership nod in SCM doesn't offset the fear that OCI's break-even path takes longer than the current burn allows.

A Sept 8 print that shows OCI margin turning positive and RPO growing further extends the recent bounce and takes the CDS narrative off the tape; a soft RPO number or any capex language that widens the gap between spend and revenue is what turns 'event-ahead' into the beginning of a real de-rating with Burry loudest in the room.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bearish framing captures the real credit-market stress — the CDS spike above 200bps and Burry's public short are unusually clean signals, and the OpenAI-leadership departure adds fuel to the same fire; the Gartner-leader bull rebuttal is a middling counter.

What to watch: The Sept 8 fiscal Q1 print — OCI revenue growth and margin, RPO commentary, and any color on AI compute contracts (particularly OpenAI). Deteriorating margin with widening CDS is the setup that opens a real de-rate.

On the calendar: 2026-09-08 — fiscal Q1 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment109 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Oracle is the market's cleanest bull-bear standoff right now. Bulls flag a $638B RPO backlog up 363% year over year, Citi's 90-day upside catalyst watch with a $330 target, a stock at 18x forward, and OpenAI compute demand. Bears counter with Michael Burry adding to his short at $152, Oracle's five-year CDS above 200bp, an OpenAI data-center-head departure, and claims of hidden SPV debt inflating true hyperscaler leverage.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ORCL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides enterprise database software, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and cloud ERP and HCM applications to large organizations.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ORCL.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $ORCL

Partial — cloud infrastructure exposure benefits indirectly from hyperscaler capex; core business is Oracle Corporation, a global technology giant, provides a comprehensive suite of.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
37.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
30.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
57.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
66.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 10, 2026$2.11$1.96+7.7%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$1.79$1.70+5.3%
Q3 2025Dec 10, 2025$2.26$1.64+37.8%
Q2 2025Sep 9, 2025$1.47$1.48-0.7%
Next earningsTue, Sep 8·consensus EPS $1.73

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$17.2B+21.7%62.2%32.8%$1.28$-11.5B
Q2 FY26$16.1B+14.2%66.5%29.5%$2.15$-10.0B
Q1 FY26$14.9B+12.2%67.3%28.7%$1.04$-362.0M
Q4 FY25$15.9B+11.3%70.2%32.1%$1.22$-2.9B

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 32 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$67.3B$67.0B – $67.4B$7.49$7.03 – $7.5830
FY27$89.6B$88.6B – $90.4B$8.05$7.82 – $8.1532
FY28$130.4B$119.3B – $138.6B$10.91$8.45 – $12.2230
FY29$180.1B$146.6B – $200.5B$15.37$10.51 – $18.1822
FY30$218.5B$189.9B – $231.6B$19.77$16.41 – $21.3111
FY31$257.1B$223.5B – $272.5B$23.95$19.88 – $25.8120

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.16%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.7B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.725-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 24Jeffrey HenleyChair400.0K sh$63.7MSellApr 16Stuart LeveyEVP, Chief Legal Officer15.0K sh$2.6M
+ 23 other (11 awards · 7 exempts · 2 inkinds · 2 others · 1 gift) in window

See when $ORCL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 23424B5
AI summary

ORCL filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on 2026-06-23. This represents dilution happening now.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 143
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ORCL on 2026-05-14, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ORCL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-12). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 143
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ORCL on 2026-04-14, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ORCL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-06). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. President and Group Chief Financial Officer of Schneider Electric. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 7 other (2 8-Ks · 1 10-K · 1 SD · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

What Are Hyperscalers? The 3 Cloud Giants Powering AI's Next Decadefool.com·1d agoConnor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Boosts Stock Holdings in Oracle Corporation $ORCLdefenseworld.net·2d agoAn AI Oracle's Rise and Fallwsj.com·3d agoBNP Paribas Decreases Holdings in Oracle Corporation $ORCLdefenseworld.net·3d agoOracle Just Rallied 18% in a Month: Take Profits, or Buy More?247wallst.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise Software

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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