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ORORCL

Oracle Corporation

$ORCL·$405B·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$124.27-6.2%YTD-37.1%1Y-48.5%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 2,530 posts2026-07-10: 3,591 posts2026-07-11: 1,572 posts2026-07-12: 1,855 posts2026-07-13: 2,726 posts2026-07-14: 2,520 posts2026-07-15: 1,912 posts16,784+11%
Price updated 1h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ORORCL
$ORCLOracle Corporation
$124.27-6.20%17k posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ORCL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Down 35% in its worst drawdown since 2008 as the AI-capex bill hits the credit rating — the backlog is real, the balance sheet is the problem.

Oracle bet its next chapter on renting AI compute at hyperscale, and that bet is now being priced in real time. The stock is in its worst drawdown since the Great Financial Crisis, the credit rating just came down, and the tape is telling you the market is done underwriting the story on faith.

What's actually broken and what isn't:

  • The revenue growth is still there: 22% year-over-year last quarter and OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) demand is real — the $638B AI backlog bulls anchor on isn't fabricated, it's contracted capacity that has to be built.
  • The balance sheet is doing the breaking: $167B of total debt against negative free cash flow projected through 2029, and last month's new offering plus S&P's downgrade to BBB-/A-3 signal the credit market wants a premium to keep funding it — Q2 free cash flow was negative $11.5B, a scale of burn Oracle hasn't seen before.
  • Insider selling is atypical: longtime CFO Henley exercised 800K options and sold 400K shares at $159 for $63.7M — routine mechanically, but the size and timing near the peak reads as a rational "I don't need to hold through this" trade rather than a fundamentals call.

The next reversal signal is technical, not fundamental: shares sit at 0.06% of the 52-week range and 30%+ below both moving averages — a hold at the 200-week (roughly where prior bounces started) into the Sept 8 print would set up a mean-reversion trade, while another leg lower on any AI backlog conversion delay confirms the credit market's caution.

What to watch: The 200-week moving average is the near-term line — a hold there restarts a mean-reversion bid into Sept 8 earnings. A break below with any commentary on backlog conversion slippage seals the de-rating.

On the calendar: 2026-09-08 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠75 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

Oracle chatter is deeply bifurcated. Bears center on an S&P credit downgrade to BBB- tied to $157-167B of total debt against roughly negative $23B TTM free cash flow and no FCF-positive year expected before 2029, framing ORCL as the proxy short for AI/hyperscaler risk with CDS spreads ~30bps wider. Bulls counter that this is Oracle's largest drawdown since the GFC, that a $638B backlog, a 200-week MA hold and prior four tests all rebounding 20%+ set up a bounce, and unusual July 31 $147 call flow suggests smart money is positioning for a snapback. Both camps see the same setup with opposite conclusions.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ORCL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides enterprise database software, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and cloud ERP and HCM applications to large organizations.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ORCL.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

No material change from last week — Enterprise software infrastructure is in a multiple compression phase (-16.

What this means for $ORCL

Partial — Provides enterprise database software, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and cloud ERP and HCM applications to large organizations; this segment overlaps with the cloud-native adoption and AI security spend despite multiple compression but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
37.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
30.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-4.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
57.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
66.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
4.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Jun 10, 2026$2.11$1.96+7.7%
Q4 2025Mar 10, 2026$1.79$1.70+5.3%
Q3 2025Dec 10, 2025$2.26$1.64+37.8%
Q2 2025Sep 9, 2025$1.47$1.48-0.7%
Next earningsTue, Sep 8·consensus EPS $1.72

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$17.2B+21.7%62.2%32.8%$1.28$-11.5B
Q2 FY26$16.1B+14.2%66.5%29.5%$2.15$-10.0B
Q1 FY26$14.9B+12.2%67.3%28.7%$1.04$-362.0M
Q4 FY25$15.9B+11.3%70.2%32.1%$1.22$-2.9B

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 30 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$67.3B$67.0B – $67.4B$7.49$7.03 – $7.5830
FY27$89.5B$88.5B – $90.3B$8.05$7.82 – $8.1530
FY28$130.1B$118.9B – $138.1B$10.91$8.44 – $12.2129
FY29$179.3B$178.6B – $179.9B$15.37$10.58 – $18.1618
FY30$218.5B$196.7B – $226.9B$19.78$17.21 – $20.779
FY31$257.1B$231.5B – $267.1B$23.95$20.84 – $25.1514

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.2%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-26.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-31.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.7B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 24Jeffrey HenleyChair400.0K sh$63.7MSellApr 16Stuart LeveyEVP, Chief Legal Officer15.0K sh$2.6MSellFeb 9Clayton M. MagouyrkCEO10.0K sh$1.6M
+ 23 other (11 awards · 7 exempts · 2 inkinds · 2 others · 1 gift) in window

See when $ORCL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 23424B5
AI summary

ORCL filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on 2026-06-23. This represents dilution happening now.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 143
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ORCL on 2026-05-14, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 128-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ORCL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-12). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 143
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for ORCL on 2026-04-14, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ORCL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-06). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. President and Group Chief Financial Officer of Schneider Electric. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KMaterial agreementFeb 58-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
8-KMaterial agreementFeb 48-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Feb 4424B5
+ 13 other (3 424B5s · 2 8-Ks · 1 10-K · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Oracle Leads Race for Japan's Classified Cloudgurufocus.com·1d agoApple Sues OpenAI, Here's What It Means for Oracle and Microsoft Investorsfool.com·1d agoHow Low Can Oracle Stock Really Go?forbes.com·1d agoOracle Stock Is Down 60%: Why Its AI Cloud Explosion Makes It a Compelling Buyfool.com·2d agoOracle Corporation (ORCL) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise Software

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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