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MSMSFT

Microsoft Corporation

$MSFT·$2.9T·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$394.64-1.6%YTD-17.2%1Y-20.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 2,397 posts2026-07-10: 5,330 posts2026-07-11: 1,863 posts2026-07-12: 4,848 posts2026-07-13: 7,451 posts2026-07-14: 5,321 posts2026-07-15: 4,003 posts31,307+14%
Price updated 2m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
MSMSFT
$MSFTMicrosoft Corporation
$394.64-1.61%31k posts+14%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MSFT, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

The great value-buyer entry point — if the July 29 print delivers Azure re-acceleration.

Microsoft is the enterprise-software incumbent that spent last year being priced as the primary AI winner — Azure hosting OpenAI, Copilot spreading across Office. This year the story got messier, and the stock is now sitting on one of its worst-performing years in a decade heading into earnings.

Why the setup is coiled:

  • The valuation has actually reset: 25x TTM P/E is roughly in line with Microsoft's 10-year average and cheap versus most Mag-7 peers, which is why Bill Ackman built a $2.5B position at these levels.
  • Fundamentals under the drawdown are fine: 68% gross margin, 47% operating margin, and a 21% return on invested capital — bulls and bears both agree this is a de-rating, not a broken story.
  • The OpenAI-independence risk is real: OpenAI progressively decoupling from the Azure exclusive changes the moat math on the biggest single AI compute customer, and it's the specific concern that's weighed on the tape.
  • The technical read is uglier: trading 9% below its 200-day moving average and sitting at only 25% of its 52-week range — bears are calling it "serious technical damage" and they're not entirely wrong.

July 29 earnings resets the narrative one way or the other. Azure growth reaccelerating above 30% is what restarts the move and validates Ackman's entry; a re-decel confirms the OpenAI-decoupling story and the de-rating deepens.

What to watch: The July 29 print — Azure growth rate versus the 30% mental line, Copilot per-seat monetization commentary, and any framing of the OpenAI compute relationship. Above 30% Azure growth reignites the trade; a miss confirms the de-rating.

On the calendar: 2026-07-29 — Q4 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment92 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

MSFT posts split cleanly into two camps ahead of the July 29 print. Bulls call the stock deeply undervalued, citing an expected 18% EPS CAGR against a 23% YTD drawdown, Ackman's $2.5B position, Morningstar's undervalued tag, and a double-bottom setup near $350; several posters note MSFT is one of the S&P's worst performers this year and treat that as opportunity. Bears counter that MSFT is on track to close under the 200-week moving average for the sixth time in months (called 'serious technical damage'), that Starbucks is building in-house AI to replace MSFT inventory tools, and that OpenAI's independence is eroding the Azure moat. Neither side is dominant.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MSFT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Windows, Office, Azure cloud, and GitHub, with AI Copilot embedded across productivity and developer products.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MSFT.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

No material change from last week — Enterprise software infrastructure is in a multiple compression phase (-16.

What this means for $MSFT

Neutral — Develops Windows, Office, Azure cloud, and GitHub, with AI Copilot embedded across productivity and developer products; limited exposure means the cloud-native adoption and AI security spend despite multiple compression is not a near-term catalyst or headwind.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
21.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
33.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
68.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$4.27$4.06+5.2%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.14$3.90+6.2%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$4.13$3.67+12.5%
Q2 2025Jul 30, 2025$3.65$3.37+8.3%
Next earningsWed, Jul 29·consensus EPS $4.21

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$82.9B+18.3%67.6%46.3%$4.28$15.8B
Q2 FY26$81.3B+16.7%68.0%47.1%$5.18$5.9B
Q1 FY26$77.7B+18.4%69.0%48.9%$3.73$25.7B
Q4 FY25$76.4B+18.1%68.6%44.9%$3.66$25.6B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 41 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$329.3B$328.7B – $330.1B$16.80$16.68 – $16.8740
FY27$384.0B$371.3B – $390.6B$19.44$18.39 – $20.4941
FY28$454.2B$453.8B – $454.5B$22.75$20.87 – $26.6737
FY29$534.3B$514.9B – $554.1B$26.87$25.60 – $28.1618
FY30$632.2B$609.2B – $655.6B$32.95$31.40 – $34.5425

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.25%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-0.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-8.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 7.4B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.135-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 10Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer4.5K sh$1.8MSellJun 8Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer2.5K sh$1.0MSellJun 1Judson AlthoffCEO15.5K sh$7.1MSellMay 14Amy ColemanEVP, Chief Human Resources Off1.3K sh$519KSellMar 6Kathleen T HoganEVP, Strategy12.3K sh$5.0MBuyFeb 18John W StantonDirector5.0K sh$2.0M
+ 57 other (42 awards · 15 inkinds) in window

See when $MSFT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MSFT (MSFT) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in CTO. Individuals named in the filing include Microsoft Corporation, Other Jurisdiction. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMay 263/A
AI summary

Carmine Di Sibio filed an amended Form 3/A as a new Director of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), amending a prior filing from May 18, 2026, with the triggering event on May 13, 2026. The excerpt does not disclose a specific security holding amount. This is a routine administrative Section 16 amendment correcting or supplementing an initial director ownership disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Carmine Di Sibio filed a Form 3 (initial beneficial ownership statement) as a newly appointed Director of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), with an event date of May 13, 2026. Di Sibio reports 0 shares of Microsoft common stock directly owned and no derivative securities. This is a routine administrative filing confirming appointment of a new director at one of the world's largest companies, with no immediate financial impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MSFT disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-14). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 12 other (3 11-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ROSEN, TOP-RANKED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages Microsoft Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action - MSFTnewsfilecorp.com·18h agoMicrosoft's Nadella rips Anthropic's Fable restrictions in staff meeting: 'Doesn't make sense'cnbc.com·19h agoROSEN, LEADING TRIAL ATTORNEYS, Encourages Microsoft Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action – MSFTglobenewswire.com·19h agoInvestors Can't Shake AI Bubble Fears—But They're Not Dropping Their Favorite Tech Stocksinvestopedia.com·20h agoMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) Shareholders Who Lost Money Have Opportunity to Lead Securities Fraud Lawsuitprnewswire.com·22h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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