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MSMSFT

Microsoft Corporation

$MSFT·$4.0T·Software - Infrastructure·Technology
$529.05-1.9%YTD+12.2%1Y+3.4%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
MSMSFT
$MSFTMicrosoft Corporation
$529.05-1.93%6.6k posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $MSFT on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

6,600X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $MSFT's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data30 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on a textbook breakout — Azure growth reaccelerated to 43%, the Copilot overhaul added $20 of upside on the news alone, and technicians are calling $520 the trigger for $530-550 next. A $12.45M call spread showed up on the tape. The restraint is confined to one post noting the stock is still flat over 12 months despite +39% in three months, framing it as late-innings catch-up rather than a top call.

Read what X is saying about $MSFT

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MSFT — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Azure reaccelerating with margin intact — the one AI-infrastructure story the fundamentals keep validating.

Microsoft is the AI story that gets to collect rent on both sides — Azure capacity leased to OpenAI and others, and Copilot pricing baked into every enterprise seat. The debate had been whether Azure growth was already past peak; the latest quarter answered no.

  • The latest quarter shows the AI capex paying rent in real time: $90B of revenue up 16% YoY at a 47% operating margin, with Azure growth reaccelerating to 43% — margin is holding even as capex climbs, which is the thing bears said couldn't last.
  • Copilot pricing is finally reaching the P&L: the $20 of upside on the Copilot overhaul news reflects that per-seat monetization is now ahead of consensus modeling, and the $12.45M call-spread print says institutions are positioning for a continuation.

At 82% of its 52-week range and above the 200-day, the setup into Oct 28 earnings is clean. A guide for Azure to hold mid-40s growth with a Q2 margin print above 46% confirms the reacceleration thesis; a decel back to the 30s or capex guided above revenue would wake up the 'margin compression' camp.

Agrees with X sentimentThe breakout-plus-Azure read on X is well-founded — the 43% Azure print and the Copilot monetization are the two levers that matter, and both are moving. The flat-12M observation is accurate but reads as a reason the move has more room, not less.

What to watch: Oct 28 earnings — Azure growth (needs 40%+), operating margin direction, and any capex guide revision. A guide-up with margin stable is a continuation signal; a decel or capex-above-revenue warning is where the camp flips.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q1 FY27 earnings

event ahead 30dnear 52w high

Read the AI verdict on $MSFT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Windows, Office, Azure cloud, and GitHub, with AI Copilot embedded across productivity and developer products.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Infrastructure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MSFT.

Software - Infrastructure · Technology

No material change from last week — AI infrastructure capex bifurcates the cohort — GPU-cloud providers and AI-native security platforms absorbing enterprise spend, while legacy SaaS faces multiple compression. GPU-cloud platforms and AI-native security tools absorb enterprise spend while legacy SaaS faces multiple compression.

What this means for $MSFT

Partial — Develops Windows, Office, Azure cloud, and GitHub, with AI Copilot embedded across productivity and developer products.; zero-trust identity is foundational to AI infrastructure security but faces competitive intensity from platform-native IAM offerings.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
24.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
21.3%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
46.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
9.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
33.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
68.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 29, 2026$4.74$4.24+11.8%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$4.27$4.06+5.2%
Q4 2025Jan 28, 2026$4.14$3.90+6.2%
Q3 2025Oct 29, 2025$4.13$3.67+12.5%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $4.72

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$82.9B+18.3%67.6%46.3%$4.28$15.8B
Q2 FY26$81.3B+16.7%68.0%47.1%$5.18$5.9B
Q1 FY26$77.7B+18.4%69.0%48.9%$3.73$25.7B
Q4 FY25$76.4B+18.1%68.6%44.9%$3.66$25.6B

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 40 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$329.5B$329.0B – $330.3B$17.01$16.90 – $17.0940
FY27$390.8B$382.9B – $394.9B$19.74$19.01 – $20.5039
FY28$467.3B$437.8B – $489.0B$23.50$22.05 – $24.4039
FY29$567.6B$490.5B – $637.7B$28.78$26.67 – $32.2026
FY30$668.2B$624.3B – $708.4B$35.08$32.08 – $37.8213
FY31$869.9B$812.7B – $922.2B$44.85$41.02 – $48.3612

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.88%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+21.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 7.4B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.105-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 13Amy HoodCFO7.3K sh$4.0MSellSep 14Amy HoodCFO41.7K sh$20.8MSellSep 1Satya NadellaCEO86.5K sh$43.4MSellAug 5Judson AlthoffCEO10.0K sh$4.9MSellAug 4Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer4.8K sh$2.4MSellJun 10Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer4.5K sh$1.8MSellJun 8Takeshi NumotoEVP, Chief Marketing Officer2.5K sh$1.0MSellJun 1Judson AlthoffCEO15.5K sh$7.1MSellMay 14Amy ColemanEVP, Chief Human Resources Off1.3K sh$519K
+ 73 other (56 awards · 16 inkinds · 1 gift) in window

See when $MSFT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDSep 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Microsoft Corporation disclosed a change in its reportable segment structure for fiscal year 2027 via a Reg FD presentation titled FY27 Segments and Investor Metrics. Beginning FY2027, Microsoft will report under two segments: (1) Agents and Infra, and (2) Devices and Consumer, replacing the prior segment structure. Historical financial data on the new basis was also provided. This is a significant structural reorganization of reporting that reflects Microsoft's strategic focus on AI-driven agentic infrastructure; the new segments will be watched closely for growth attribution between AI/cloud and hardware/consumer units.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MSFT (MSFT) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in CTO. Individuals named in the filing include Microsoft Corporation, Other Jurisdiction. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMay 263/A
AI summary

Carmine Di Sibio filed an amended Form 3/A as a new Director of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), amending a prior filing from May 18, 2026, with the triggering event on May 13, 2026. The excerpt does not disclose a specific security holding amount. This is a routine administrative Section 16 amendment correcting or supplementing an initial director ownership disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 183
AI summary

Carmine Di Sibio filed a Form 3 (initial beneficial ownership statement) as a newly appointed Director of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), with an event date of May 13, 2026. Di Sibio reports 0 shares of Microsoft common stock directly owned and no derivative securities. This is a routine administrative filing confirming appointment of a new director at one of the world's largest companies, with no immediate financial impact.

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

MSFT disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-05-14). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 11 other (3 PX14A6Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 11-Ks · 1 10-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Not Alphabet. Not Microsoft.fool.com·10h agoMicrosoft wants to make AI cheaper. Will investors actually see the savings?marketwatch.com·12h agoIf AI Crumbles, Microsoft Winsseekingalpha.com·13h agoThe Next $5 Trillion Dollar Company: Alphabet or Microsoft?247wallst.com·15h agoMicrosoft Stocks Slip Although $600 Target Meets an Unfinished AI Modelgurufocus.com·15h ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Agentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareQuantum ComputingRobotics & Humanoids

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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