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AXAXP

American Express Company

$AXP·$230B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$330.17-0.9%YTD-6.2%1Y-0.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 12 posts2026-08-23: 15 posts147-12%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
AXAXP
$AXPAmerican Express Company
$330.17-0.91%147 posts-12%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AXP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Berkshire's second-largest holding trading at a fresh 52-week low relative to V/MA — 10% revenue growth, small beat cadence, but the multiple keeps compressing.

American Express is the global charge and credit-card business plus travel and merchant services — a durable compounder with a specific premium-consumer moat that has spent 2026 trading sideways as V and MA outperformed. The stock is essentially flat T12M despite continued fundamental delivery, which is exactly what a stalled-compounder tape looks like.

  • The operating story is unmistakably solid: Q1 revenue grew 10% year-over-year to $20.9B, gross margins hold 82-85%, operating margins run 15-32% (a bit lumpy quarter-to-quarter), and the last four EPS prints beat consensus by -0.3% to 7% — the compounder profile is intact.
  • The valuation is meaningfully cheap relative to peers: at 19x trailing earnings versus Visa and Mastercard trading in the 30s, AXP is priced with a real discount that reflects the credit-cycle exposure the network-only names don't carry — bulls call it a 'forever' stock with fair value $388-$475.
  • The credit-cycle signal from the monthly Reg FD is worth watching: the August monthly delinquency and write-off statistics disclosure (Aug 17) is the specific real-time data point that decides whether the multiple compression is warranted — a spike would validate the discount, stable trends would restart the re-rate.
  • Insider tape shows only one modest sale (Monique Herena $2.97M) — for a $230B market cap this reads as neutral; the more interesting signal is that Buffett still holds AXP as Berkshire's second-largest position (17.1% of portfolio), which anchors the shareholder base.

The path if the compounding resumes is the Oct 23 Q3 print keeping the beat cadence plus stable-to-improving credit metrics — the tape breaks the stall upward and the AXP-vs-V/MA discount starts compressing. What extends the stall is a credit-cycle uptick that would validate the multiple discount; that's when the fair-value math of $388-$475 gets pushed a year further out.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — AXP at a fresh 52-week low relative to Visa and Mastercard while still Berkshire's second-largest holding at 17.1% of the portfolio, bulls calling it a 'forever' stock with fair value near $388-$475, plus the CNBC 'Fast Money' final trade being a buy — captures the durable-compounder value case cleanly; the skeptical notes (Tom Lee's disclosed sale, credit-limit increases echoing 2007) are the honest counter that the stalled trajectory reflects.

What to watch: The Oct 23 Q3 print and the monthly Reg FD delinquency data — stable-to-improving credit metrics plus beat cadence breaks the stall upward; a credit-cycle uptick that validates the multiple discount is what extends the stall.

On the calendar: 2026-10-23 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment22 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is a bullish laggard-catchup pitch. Traders repeatedly note AXP sits at 52-week lows relative to Visa and Mastercard while both hit all-time highs, calling the valuation gap on Berkshire's second-largest holding 'too cheap to ignore.' Steady DCA posts, analyst final-trade calls and 'add on weakness' takes dominate, though Tom Lee's recent sale is flagged as the notable piece of dissent in the feed.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AXP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates a premium charge and credit card network for affluent consumers and corporations, with travel and merchant services.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AXP.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

Consumer credit quality is the central variable; delinquency trends in credit cards and auto loans determine reserve requirements and loss expectations. Rate normalization improves NIM dynamics but a credit cycle turn would offset those gains.

What this means for $AXP

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-1.6%YTD
-11.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
20.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
33.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
83.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 24, 2026$4.53$4.41+2.7%
Q1 2026Apr 23, 2026$4.28$4.00+7.0%
Q4 2025Jan 30, 2026$3.53$3.54-0.3%
Q3 2025Oct 17, 2025$4.14$4.00+3.5%
Next earningsFri, Oct 23·consensus EPS $4.58

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$20.9B+10.3%84.6%31.6%$4.28$2.7B
Q4 FY25$21.0B+9.5%83.5%14.7%$3.53$2.3B
Q3 FY25$20.6B+9.5%83.4%18.6%$4.14$5.6B
Q2 FY25$19.9B+8.3%82.5%17.8%$4.08$3.7B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 18 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$79.5B$79.0B – $79.9B$17.65$17.42 – $17.8718
FY27$86.7B$85.4B – $87.5B$20.11$19.87 – $20.4418
FY28$94.0B$90.5B – $96.3B$22.98$21.91 – $23.7114
FY29$103.0B$101.3B – $104.1B$26.98$26.39 – $27.359
FY30$76.4B$75.1B – $77.2B$29.32$28.68 – $29.7313

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.44%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-1.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 674.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.055-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 18Monique HerenaChief Colleague Exp. Officer8.8K sh$3.0MSellJun 15Glenda G McnealChief Partner Officer7.0K sh$2.4MSellMar 13Raymond JoabarGrp. Pres., Global Comm. Serv.16 sh$5KSellMar 6Lieberman Quinn JessicaEVP - Controller3.0K sh$910K
+ 29 other (29 awards) in window

See when $AXP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 178-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express disclosed monthly U.S. Consumer and Small Business card delinquency and write-off statistics via Reg FD on August 17, 2026. U.S. Consumer card balances stood at $113.1 billion as of July 31, 2026, with a 30-day past due rate of 1.1% and a net write-off rate of 1.7% (up from 1.4% in June, which was suppressed by a prior-period balance sale). Small Business balances were $46.1 billion with a 1.3% past-due rate and 2.6% net write-off rate; the combined U.S. card portfolio held for investment was $159.2 billion. Credit quality looks stable month-over-month; the June write-off rate reduction was a one-time benefit from selling previously written-off balances.

8-KCharter amendmentAug 128-K — Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

American Express (AXP) issued 1,600 shares of 6.450% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Shares, Series E on August 12, 2026, deposited against delivery of 1,600,000 Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1,000th interest in a Series E share. This is a new preferred equity issuance likely for regulatory capital purposes. The 6.45% fixed rate resets provide investors with interest rate protection.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 248-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express Company reported Q2 2026 financial results on July 24, 2026, via press release (Exhibit 99.1) with supplemental financial data disclosed under Regulation FD (Exhibit 99.2). The filing covers the quarter ended June 30, 2026; specific figures including revenue, EPS, card member spending, and management guidance are contained in the attached exhibits. The body excerpt reproduces primarily the form header and forward-looking-statements disclaimer. This is a material quarterly earnings disclosure for one of the world's largest charge and credit card issuers.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express (AXP) furnished its monthly statistical release for June 2026 (Regulation FD), disclosing U.S. Consumer card balances of $113.8 billion with a 1.1% 30-day delinquency rate and a 1.4% annualized net write-off rate for Q2. U.S. Small Business card balances stood at $45.9 billion, with a 1.4% delinquency rate and 2.3% annualized net write-off rate for Q2. Combined U.S. card balances total $159.7 billion. American Express also noted it sold certain previously written-off balances to a third party in June 2026, which may affect comparisons.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 258-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express published its company-run 2026 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) results via press release on June 25, 2026. The DFAST is an annual regulatory capital adequacy test required for large financial institutions — results are available on AmEx's IR website. No specific capital ratio figures or scenario outcomes were included in the 8-K body itself. Routine regulatory compliance disclosure; the actual stress test results in the attached exhibit are what matter for assessing AXP's capital resilience.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express Company furnished monthly delinquency and net write-off rate statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business card portfolios through May 31, 2026 under Regulation FD. Combined card balances held for investment reached $160.5 billion; 30-day delinquency rates improved month-over-month to 1.1% (consumer) and 1.4% (small business), both below March 2026 levels, while net write-off rates (principal only) held stable at 2.0% and 2.6% respectively. The trend of declining delinquencies is a positive credit-quality signal for AXP heading into Q2 earnings.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AXP filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-05-15. Covers: presentation and disclosure of Card Member loans and Card Member receivables to present them on a co. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

8-KShareholder voteMay 78-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

AXP held its Annual Meeting of stockholders around 2026-05-07 (8-K Item 5.07). The meeting was adjourned, likely due to insufficient quorum. Routine governance event — monitor for unusually high withhold votes as an activist signal.

+ 22 other (4 8-Ks · 3 routine 8-Ks · 2 13Fs · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, You'll Want to Hold Onto These 3 Warren Buffett Stocksfool.com·2d agoAncora Advisors LLC Invests $556,000 in American Express Company $AXPdefenseworld.net·3d agoCrowdStrike, Marriott, American Express And More On CNBC's ‘Final Trades'benzinga.com·4d agoBamco Inc. NY Buys Shares of 2,700 American Express Company $AXPdefenseworld.net·4d agoAmex and Bread Kick Off NFL-Themed Card Rewards Programpymnts.com·5d ago

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