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AXAXP

American Express Company

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 10% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (527/wk), no spike
$AXP·$208B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$313.59-0.1%YTD-15.1%1Y-2.9%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AXAXP
$AXPAmerican Express Company
$313.59-0.09%527 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AXP on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

527X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AXP's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 57% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

Sentiment is bullish on Amex's premium franchise — CFO disclosed Gen Z lifetime value is ~2x a 40-45-year-old Gen X Platinum customer, and the premium-growth-not-loose-underwriting posture is being quoted. Despite AXP being down 16% YTD, Berkshire owns ~$51B worth, JPMorgan reported 20.5M shares, and Morgan Stanley added. One technical skeptic frames it as the "buy one, hold one, sell one" against V and MA.

Read what X is saying about $AXP

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AXP — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

American Express is near 52-week lows and Berkshire still owns $51B of it — Oct 23 earnings tests the mispricing thesis.

American Express is the premium-card issuer with closed-loop network economics and a franchise concentrated in affluent and corporate spenders. The stock is down 18% YTD on cycle worries, not on fundamentals.

  • The business is still growing: Q1 revenue +10% YoY at a 21% operating margin and a 9% ROIC — moderating from the post-COVID rip but still ahead of mid-cycle expectations, with Gen Z's lifetime-value being pitched at 2x Gen X Platinum.
  • The institutional base is unusually sticky: Berkshire's ~$51B stake, JPMorgan 20.5M shares, Morgan Stanley 13.1M shares, plus Trump's disclosed 2026 buys — this is a holder base that doesn't flip on a weak quarter.
  • 52-week range position is 12% with vol multiplier 1.25 — accumulation at the lower end of a long base, which is the setup bulls are pointing at as mispricing against the setup.

Oct 23 Q3 is the gate — any continued double-digit billings growth plus unchanged underwriting discipline extends the move off the floor. A spending-slowdown print or a credit-loss step-up and the base keeps getting tested longer.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right drivers — Gen Z LTV framing, Berkshire's size, the institutional holder stack, Trump's disclosed buys, and the YTD-mispricing framing — all substantively grounded against a cheap-looking premium franchise.

What to watch: Oct 23 Q3 — billings growth, loan-loss provisioning, net card fee growth, and any underwriting commentary. A credit-loss step-up or spending slowdown is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-10-23 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $AXP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates a premium charge and credit card network for affluent consumers and corporations, with travel and merchant services.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AXP.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI-driven underwriting (Upstart, SoFi) and BNPL (Affirm, Klarna) continue reshaping consumer credit while Visa and Mastercard card networks hold on premium-spend mix.

What this means for $AXP

Direct beneficiary — Operates a premium charge and credit card network for affluent consumers and corporations, with travel and merchant services.

Industry benchmark

19-name peer basket
-14.7%YTD
-18.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
8.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
20.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
33.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
83.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 24, 2026$4.53$4.40+3.0%
Q1 2026Apr 23, 2026$4.28$4.00+7.0%
Q4 2025Jan 30, 2026$3.53$3.54-0.3%
Q3 2025Oct 17, 2025$4.14$4.00+3.5%
Next earningsFri, Oct 23·consensus EPS $4.58

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$20.9B+10.3%84.6%31.6%$4.28$2.7B
Q4 FY25$21.0B+9.5%83.5%14.7%$3.53$2.3B
Q3 FY25$20.6B+9.5%83.4%18.6%$4.14$5.6B
Q2 FY25$19.9B+8.3%82.5%17.8%$4.08$3.7B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 18 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$79.5B$79.2B – $79.7B$17.63$17.45 – $18.0518
FY27$86.6B$85.1B – $87.2B$20.14$19.95 – $20.3918
FY28$93.8B$90.4B – $96.1B$23.02$21.44 – $23.6914
FY29$104.0B$102.3B – $105.0B$27.18$26.59 – $27.538
FY30$76.4B$75.2B – $77.2B$29.32$28.69 – $29.7012

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.23%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 674.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.085-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 18Monique HerenaChief Colleague Exp. Officer8.8K sh$3.0MSellJun 15Glenda G McnealChief Partner Officer7.0K sh$2.4M
+ 28 other (28 awards) in window

See when $AXP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDOct 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDOct 88-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentOct 1SC 13D/A
AI summary

American Express Company amended its Schedule 13D for Global Business Travel Group, Inc (AXP) on 2026-10-01, reporting it has disposed of all shares (now reports 0% stake). A Schedule 13D is required when a party crosses 5% ownership with intent to influence management; an amendment signals a change in position size or stated intent, making this material for tracking activist or strategic holder activity.

8-KPress release / Reg FDSep 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express (AXP) disclosed monthly delinquency and write-off statistics for U.S. Consumer ($114.2B in balances) and U.S. Small Business ($46.1B) card portfolios through August 31, 2026. Consumer 30-day delinquency held at 1.1% with a net write-off rate of 1.7%; Small Business showed 1.3% delinquency and 2.2% write-off rate (down from 2.6% in July). Credit quality is stable-to-improving, with no signs of deterioration heading into Q3 reporting.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 178-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express disclosed monthly U.S. Consumer and Small Business card delinquency and write-off statistics via Reg FD on August 17, 2026. U.S. Consumer card balances stood at $113.1 billion as of July 31, 2026, with a 30-day past due rate of 1.1% and a net write-off rate of 1.7% (up from 1.4% in June, which was suppressed by a prior-period balance sale). Small Business balances were $46.1 billion with a 1.3% past-due rate and 2.6% net write-off rate; the combined U.S. card portfolio held for investment was $159.2 billion. Credit quality looks stable month-over-month; the June write-off rate reduction was a one-time benefit from selling previously written-off balances.

8-KCharter amendmentAug 128-K — Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

American Express (AXP) issued 1,600 shares of 6.450% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Preferred Shares, Series E on August 12, 2026, deposited against delivery of 1,600,000 Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1,000th interest in a Series E share. This is a new preferred equity issuance likely for regulatory capital purposes. The 6.45% fixed rate resets provide investors with interest rate protection.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 248-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express Company reported Q2 2026 financial results on July 24, 2026, via press release (Exhibit 99.1) with supplemental financial data disclosed under Regulation FD (Exhibit 99.2). The filing covers the quarter ended June 30, 2026; specific figures including revenue, EPS, card member spending, and management guidance are contained in the attached exhibits. The body excerpt reproduces primarily the form header and forward-looking-statements disclaimer. This is a material quarterly earnings disclosure for one of the world's largest charge and credit card issuers.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

American Express (AXP) furnished its monthly statistical release for June 2026 (Regulation FD), disclosing U.S. Consumer card balances of $113.8 billion with a 1.1% 30-day delinquency rate and a 1.4% annualized net write-off rate for Q2. U.S. Small Business card balances stood at $45.9 billion, with a 1.4% delinquency rate and 2.3% annualized net write-off rate for Q2. Combined U.S. card balances total $159.7 billion. American Express also noted it sold certain previously written-off balances to a third party in June 2026, which may affect comparisons.

+ 20 other (6 8-Ks · 3 routine 8-Ks · 2 13Fs · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Will Rising Expenses Affect American Express' Q3 Earnings?zacks.com·15h agoAmerican Express (AXP) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?zacks.com·16h agoAmerican Express Company $AXP Stake Increased by Cohen Klingenstein LLCdefenseworld.net·23h agoRakuten Introduces Limited Edition NARUTO SHIPPUDEN Credit Card Design for the Rakuten American Express® Card Featuring Naruto and Sasukeprnewswire.com·2d ago2,393 American Express Company $AXP Shares Purchased by Krilogy Financial LLCdefenseworld.net·2d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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