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TSTSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 35% YoY at strong margins31 insiders bought $937K in 30 daysConsistent chatter on X (3.5K/wk), no spike
$TSM·$2.1T·Semiconductors·Technology
$418.20+1.0%YTD+33.7%1Y+78.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-29: 565 posts2026-07-30: 676 posts2026-07-31: 522 posts2026-08-01: 221 posts2026-08-02: 194 posts2026-08-03: 474 posts2026-08-04: 854 posts3,538-1%
Price updated 38m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
TSTSM
$TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$418.20+1.01%3.5k posts-1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-06

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

The one company that literally cannot be replaced in AI hardware, sitting 15% below its own recent high while its own management team quietly buys shares.

TSMC is the world's most advanced semiconductor foundry — the only company today that can manufacture Nvidia's leading-edge GPUs, Apple's M-series and A-series chips, and the AI accelerators every hyperscaler is designing in-house. The recent pullback (15% off the highs) has done nothing to change that structural position, and the insider tape has flipped to a genuine open-market buying cluster.

The setup is unusually clean:

  • Growth is huge and durable: Q1 revenue grew 35% year-over-year with 66% gross margins, and analyst estimates model revenue expanding from ~NT$5.4T in 2026 to ~NT$7.2T in 2027 — a 33% growth line at scale, driven by 3nm ramping to 180K wafers a month and 1.4nm running a year ahead of Samsung's roadmap.
  • The profitability is best-in-class for capital-intensive hardware: return on invested capital sits at 26% and return on equity at 37% for a business with 50%+ operating margins — TSMC is essentially pricing like a utility with the margin structure of a monopoly, because that's what it is.
  • The insider signal is the standout: 31 distinct insider buyers in the last 30 days (a genuine cluster, not one lone executive), with VP Tien Bor-Zen and VP Lin Shyue-Shyh both accumulating on multiple days at the local dip — that is the pattern of the people who see the wafer order book buying with their own money.
  • The demand runway is contracted, not speculated: hyperscalers have prepaid to lock capacity through 2027, which converts the historical foundry-cyclicality risk into a bookings-visibility story — the sold-out capacity Micron talks about is downstream of TSMC's sold-out fabs.

The path forward is a re-acceleration once the market absorbs the recent -15% pullback and the Oct 15 Q3 print confirms the current trajectory. Watch Intel Foundry's EMIB packaging progress and Samsung's 2nm timeline as the two competitive concerns — a real win by either turns 'irreplaceable' into 'one of two' and compresses the moat premium.

Agrees with X sentimentX's read is grounded — the 3nm ramp, 1.4nm lead, and hyperscaler prepayment thesis all check out, and the insider cluster (VP + Rep. Cleo Fields) is being correctly identified as smart-money accumulation. The Intel-EMIB counterpoint is worth respecting but doesn't invalidate the near-term thesis; agree on both direction and timing.

What to watch: The Oct 15 Q3 print — the CapEx guide (does it stay near $42B?) and any color on hyperscaler prepay renewals for 2028. A confirmed prepay renewal extends the accumulation story; any hyperscaler pulling back on 2027-2028 commitments becomes the first real cyclical crack.

On the calendar: 2026-10-15 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment78 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-05

Traders sound confidently bullish on TSMC, focused on 3nm hitting the 180K wafer target early, 1.4nm running a year ahead of Samsung, and hyperscalers prepaying to lock capacity through 2027. VP insider and Rep. Cleo Fields buys are being read as smart-money accumulation on the -15% month dip. A minority argues Intel's EMIB packaging is a real threat, but the consensus treats TSM as an irreplaceable AI backbone.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSM.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $TSM

Neutral — Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry; limited read-through from semiconductors macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+98.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
31.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
25.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
53.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
61.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$4.31$3.87+11.4%
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$3.49$3.31+5.4%
Q4 2025Jan 15, 2026$3.09$2.90+6.6%
Q3 2025Oct 16, 2025$2.92$2.63+11.0%
Next earningsThu, Oct 15·consensus EPS $4.45

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.13T+35.1%66.2%58.0%$111.55$377.1B
Q4 FY25$1.06T+21.6%62.3%53.9%$98.40$388.2B
Q3 FY25$989.9B+30.3%59.5%50.6%$89.05$139.4B
Q2 FY25$933.8B+38.6%58.6%49.6%$72.60$197.5B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 22 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.38T$5.09T – $5.55T$530.11$432.01 – $574.0421
FY27$7.17T$6.65T – $7.58T$687.48$562.57 – $800.2622
FY28$9.00T$7.46T – $9.96T$865.30$673.06 – $984.8310
FY29$11.65T$9.66T – $12.89T$1100.32$855.87 – $1252.3115

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.75%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-2.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+15.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 5.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.375-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Cluster buy31 insiders bought shares in the last 30 days.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 3Bor-zen TienVP1.0K sh$73KBuyJul 28Bor-zen TienVP1.0K sh$74KBuyJul 21Bor-zen TienVP4.0K sh$297KBuyJul 21Shyue-shyh LinVP1.0K sh$74KBuyJul 20Bor-zen TienVP10 sh$4KBuyJul 20Shyue-shyh LinVP1.0K sh$73KBuyJul 19Shyue-shyh LinVP3.0K sh$215KSellJul 14Chih-ho ChenController50 sh$4KBuyJul 13Chih-ho ChenController50 sh$4KBuyJul 7Yeap Choh FeiSVP53 sh$4K
1–10 of 124
+ 6 other (4 gifts · 2 expirelongs) in window

See when $TSM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJun 233/A
AI summary

Amendment to Form 3 filed by A new officer/director (Other (specify below) VP 6. Individual or Joint/Group Filing (Check Applicable Line) X Form filed by One Reporting Person Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned 1. Title of Security (Instr. 4) 2. Amount of Securities Beneficially Owned (Instr. 4) 3. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 4. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Common Shares (2330.TW) 30,851 D Common Shares (2330.TW) 72,946 (1) I By Spouse Common Shares (2330.TW) 131,000 I By Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd. Table II - Derivative Securities Beneficially Owned (e.g., puts, calls, warrants, options, convertible securities) 1. Title of Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 2. Date Exercisable and Expiration Date (Month/Day/Year) 3. Title and Amount of Securities Underlying Derivative Security (Instr. 4) 4. Conversion or Exercise Price of Derivative Security 5. Ownership Form: Direct (D) or Indirect (I) (Instr. 5) 6. Nature of Indirect Beneficial Ownership (Instr. 5) Date Exercisable Expiration Date Title Amount or Number of Shares Explanation of Responses: 1. This amended Form 3 is being filed to correct the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) reported as owned by the reporting person's spouse in Table I of the original Form 3 filed on June 1, 2026, which inadvertently included 450 Common Shares (2330.TW) not owned by the reporting person's spouse. This amended Form 3 corrects the number of Common Shares (2330.TW) owned by the reporting person's spouse from 73,396 to 72,946, and is deemed to update such information reported in the Form 4 filed on June 9, 2026. Remarks: /s/ Jen-Chau Huang, as attorney-in-fact 06/23/2026 ** Signature of Reporting Person Date Reminder: Report on a separate line for each class of securities beneficially owned directly or indirectly. * If the form is filed by more than one reporting person, see Instruction 5 (b)(v). ** Intentional misstatements or omissions of facts constitute Federal Criminal Violations See 18 U.S.C. 1001 and 15 U.S.C. 78ff(a). Note: File three copies of this Form, one of which must be manually signed. If space is insufficient, see Instruction 6 for procedure. Persons who respond to the collection of information contained in this form are not required to respond unless the form displays a currently valid OMB Number. * Form 3: SEC 1473 (03-26)) at TSM on 2026-06-23. This initial statement of beneficial ownership reports the filer's securities holdings as required under Section 16(a). Filing is routine and indicates an insider's initial ownership disclosure following appointment or acquisition of 10%+ stake.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 50,967 direct shares plus 3,000 shares indirectly through spouse; total beneficial ownership approximately 53,967 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 30,851 direct shares, 73,396 held by spouse, and 131,000 held by Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd.; total approximately 235,247 shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 44,359 direct shares and 63,000 held by spouse; total approximately 107,359 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 313/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-31, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 303/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-30, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Beneficial ownership covers 5,259 shares. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 68 other (37 3s · 29 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

What Is Going on with Taiwan Semiconductor Stock on Wednesday?benzinga.com·1d agoSony's TSMC Sensor Venture Could Reshape Its Imaging Growth Storyzacks.com·1d agoIs TSMC (TSM) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?zacks.com·1d agoSemiconductor Rally Powers S&P 500 to Fresh Record Highzacks.com·2d agoSemiconductor ETFs Surge up to 19% in Huge Rally as the AI Trade Ramps Back Up247wallst.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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