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TSTSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter picking upMoving on elevated volumeStrong bullish X conversation
$TSM·$2.4T·Semiconductors·Technology
$462.12+6.9%YTD+48.1%1Y+120.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-06-15: 257 posts2026-06-16: 320 posts2026-06-17: 335 posts2026-06-18: 440 posts2026-06-19: 153 posts2026-06-20: 103 posts2026-06-21: 180 posts1,798+10%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 20h ago
TSTSM
$TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$462.12+6.94%1.8k posts+10%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TSM, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-06-22

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

TSMC just hit a fresh all-time high above $462 on the Amkor CoWoS partnership — the most important chip company in the world, +120% in twelve months.

Taiwan Semiconductor is the foundry that makes essentially every leading-edge chip — Nvidia GPUs, AMD CPUs, Apple silicon, and the entire AI accelerator ecosystem. It's the single most important company in the global semiconductor supply chain, and the latest catalyst (Amkor CoWoS in Arizona) addresses the #1 AI hardware bottleneck.

  • The fundamental print is generational-scale: Q2 revenue grew 35% YoY to T$1.13B with gross margin 62% and operating margin 58% — the highest margins TSMC has ever printed, driven by leading-edge node mix and AI accelerator pricing premium.
  • The CoWoS gap is closing faster than expected: a 10-year advanced packaging agreement with Amkor to bring CoWoS production to Arizona directly addresses the #1 AI hardware bottleneck. May revenue grew 30% YoY, and the A14 process is on track for 2028 mass production with 10-15% performance improvement at iso-power.
  • Valuation is reasonable for the position: trades at 32x trailing earnings and 15x PS on $2.4T market cap — high historically for a foundry, but TSMC has become a software-margin business with 58% operating margins, and multi-year AMD/Nvidia/Apple commitments lock in pricing power no foundry has had before.

July 16 Q2 print is the read: CoWoS capacity-add commentary, AI accelerator pricing trajectory, and the A14 timeline. A clean print plus expanded CoWoS guidance extends the move; any geopolitical headline (Taiwan-China tensions, US-China chip exports) is the dominant tail risk.

Agrees with X sentimentX is overwhelmingly bullish and the catalysts are confirmable — the Amkor CoWoS Arizona agreement, May revenue +30%, A14 process timeline for 2028, and the AMD/Nvidia/Apple customer commentary. The verdict shares the bull's framing and treats the underlying CoWoS bottleneck-closure as the most important AI-supply-chain development the corpus correctly highlights.

What to watch: Q2 earnings July 16 — CoWoS capacity-add commentary, AI accelerator pricing trajectory, and A14 timeline progression. A clean print plus expanded CoWoS guidance extends the move; any geopolitical headline (Taiwan-China tensions, US-China chip exports) is the dominant tail risk.

On the calendar: 2026-07-16 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment110 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-21

Taiwan Semiconductor printed a fresh all-time high near $462, up roughly 7 percent on news of a 10-year advanced packaging agreement with Amkor to bring CoWoS production to Arizona, directly addressing the number-one AI hardware bottleneck. May revenue grew 30 percent year over year and the CoWoS supply-demand gap is closing faster than expected. The A14 process is on track for 2028 mass production with 10 to 15 percent performance improvement at iso-power. AMD, Nvidia, and Apple are all named anchor customers. Even after the recent run the stock trades around 22x forward earnings for FY27 with 35 percent forecast revenue growth. The lone caution is the recent run sets up profit-taking risk in a market increasingly focused on smaller momentum names.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TSM

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Manufactures chips for Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD as the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TSM.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural engine — Goldman Sachs' $1T+ AI infrastructure spend forecast for 2027 validates no capex retreat, keeping NVDA Blackwell allocation tight through 2H26. HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory requirements vs. prior cycles, with Micron's June 24 earnings the week's key data point.

What this means for $TSM

Direct beneficiary — TSMC is the sole manufacturer of NVDA's Blackwell GPUs and AMD's AI accelerators; its allocation is tight through 2H26, making it the most directly constrained AI capex bottleneck.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+78.9%YTD
+153.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
31.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
25.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
53.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
14.9Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
36.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
61.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 15, 2026$3.49$3.31+5.4%
Q4 2025Jan 15, 2026$3.09$2.90+6.6%
Q3 2025Nov 14, 2025$2.85$2.63+8.4%
Q2 2025Aug 14, 2025$2.61$2.38+9.7%
Next earningsThu, Jul 16·consensus EPS $3.80

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.13T+35.1%66.2%58.0%$111.55$377.1B
Q4 FY25$1.06T+21.6%62.3%53.9%$98.40$388.2B
Q3 FY25$989.9B+30.3%59.5%50.6%$89.05$139.4B
Q2 FY25$933.8B+38.6%58.6%49.6%$72.60$197.5B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.27T$5.04T – $5.46T$503.16$430.15 – $528.1521
FY27$6.71T$6.42T – $7.26T$633.95$555.49 – $677.1621
FY28$8.32T$7.20T – $8.81T$783.39$646.45 – $842.8618
FY29$7.92T$6.86T – $8.38T$666.43$549.93 – $717.0210

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.99%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+13.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+37.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 5.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.255-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Cluster buy31 insiders bought shares in the last 30 days.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 15Lipen YuanVP1.0K sh$75KBuyJun 5Shien-yang WuSVP57 sh$4KBuyJun 5Che-chia WeiCEO150 sh$11KBuyJun 5Chin-sheng LuVP37 sh$3KBuyJun 5Yung-pei ChinCOO71 sh$5KBuyJun 5Min CaoVP54 sh$4KBuyJun 5Tzonz-sheng ChangSVP53 sh$4KBuyJun 5Chih-ho ChenController32 sh$2KBuyJun 5Pei-hung ChenVP46 sh$3KBuyJun 5Lin Chris Horng-darVP and CIO48 sh$4K
1–10 of 81
+ 3 other (2 expirelongs · 1 gift) in window

See when $TSM insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 50,967 direct shares plus 3,000 shares indirectly through spouse; total beneficial ownership approximately 53,967 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 30,851 direct shares, 73,396 held by spouse, and 131,000 held by Wei Liang Asset Management Co. Ltd.; total approximately 235,247 shares. Routine Form 3.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 13
AI summary

TSMC officer/director filed an initial Form 3 reporting 44,359 direct shares and 63,000 held by spouse; total approximately 107,359 Taiwan common shares. Routine Form 3.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 313/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-31, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 303/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for TSM on 2026-03-30, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Beneficial ownership covers 5,259 shares. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for TSM on 2026-03-18, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

+ 67 other (36 3s · 29 6-Ks · 1 SD · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Intel Is Stealing the Foundry Spotlight. Is TSMC Still the Most Important Company in Chips?fool.com·1d agoTSMC: The Buying Opportunity Is Finally Flashing (Rating Upgrade)seekingalpha.com·1d agoTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: A Strong Contender in the Chip Industryfool.com·3d agoHere Is the 1 Dirt-Cheap Semiconductor Titan I Keep Loading Up on Repeat247wallst.com·3d ago“They Forgot to Protect Our Industries With TARIFFS!” — Does a Trump Trade War 2.0 Loom?247wallst.com·3d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor Onshoring

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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