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TMTMQ

Trilogy Metals Inc.

$TMQ·$522M·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$2.99-3.5%YTD-31.2%1Y+66.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-21: 7 posts2026-07-22: 5 posts2026-07-23: 6 posts2026-07-24: 0 posts2026-07-25: 2 posts2026-07-26: 2 posts2026-07-27: 1 posts23+11%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 22h ago
TMTMQ
$TMQTrilogy Metals Inc.
$2.99-3.55%23 posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $TMQ, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-28

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Ambler copper-cobalt-zinc developer with a fresh federal-state permitting schedule pointing to a 2028 Record of Decision.

Trilogy Metals is a pure-play developer of the Arctic and Bornite copper-cobalt-zinc deposits in Alaska's Ambler district — the July 16 filing of a coordinated federal-state permitting schedule with a targeted Record of Decision by September 2028 is the first hard piece of government alignment the project has ever had.

  • Stock down 31% year-to-date but up 67% over 12 months, at 16% of the 52-week range — the tape has faded the near-term but the longer arc still reflects the underlying option value.
  • Zero revenue with a single-analyst 2026 revenue estimate of $907M reflecting a construction-decision scenario, not the base case — the equity is a pure permit-and-fund story.
  • Balance sheet is clean with essentially no debt, so the dilution risk is a future project-finance event, not an immediate ATM overhang.

September 29 earnings will bring an updated permitting-milestone timeline — any acceleration or additional agency-alignment step would confirm the coil, while a slippage from the 2028 ROD target would extend the current fade. Risk: Alaska mining permits have historically slipped even after coordinated schedules are published, and rare-earth-adjacent sentiment cooled in July on oversupply concerns.

Differs from X sentimentNo X chatter in the bundle for TMQ to compare against the catalyst-play-coiling read — flagging as no-crowd-read.

What to watch: Any interim permitting milestone or agency filing that would confirm the September 2028 Record of Decision target, plus copper price action into September earnings.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $TMQ

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Trilogy Metals Inc. is a base metals exploration company actively identifying and developing mineral properties throughout the United States. Its core assets lie within the Upper Kobuk mineral projects, located in the Ambler mining district of Northwest Alaska, spanning an area of approximately 426,690 acres. These projects include the Arctic deposit, characterized by polymetallic volcanogenic massive sulfide mineralization, and Bornite, which contains carbonate-hosted copper-cobalt deposits. The company, founded in 2004, was formerly known as NovaCopper Inc. before adopting the name Trilogy Metals Inc. in September 2016, and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $TMQ.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — MP Materials and USARE (US Rare Earths) benefit from the US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout as defense and EV applications require secure non-Chinese..

Industry benchmark

15-name peer basket
-1.0%YTD
+30.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-9.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
0.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-1.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.0Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-40.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
0.0%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 8, 2026$-0.03$-0.01-200.0%
Q1 2026Apr 2, 2026$-0.03$-0.01-200.0%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$-0.11$-0.110.0%
Q2 2025Sep 30, 2025$-0.01$-0.010.0%
Next earningsTue, Sep 29·consensus EPS $-0.01

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$0———$-0.04$-1.0M
Q1 FY26$0———$-0.04$-2.7M
Q4 FY25$0———$-0.21$-558K
Q3 FY25$0———$-0.01$-1.3M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 1 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$907.0M$907.0M – $907.0M-$0.10-$0.15 – -$0.041
FY27$0$0 – $0-$0.06-$0.06 – -$0.060
FY28$0$0 – $0-$0.04-$0.04 – -$0.040

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.16%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-18.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-31.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 108.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.655-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellMay 8William L. HensleyDirector50.0K sh$222KSellFeb 26William L. HensleyDirector25.1K sh$110K
+ 4 other (2 awards · 2 exempts) in window

See when $TMQ insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 168-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) disclosed via Reg FD on July 16, 2026 that a coordinated federal and state permitting schedule for its flagship Arctic Project in northwestern Alaska's Ambler Mining District has been published on the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council's Permitting Dashboard (permits.performance.gov). The Arctic Project holds copper, cobalt, and zinc resources. A published federal-state permitting schedule is a meaningful milestone because it signals government alignment on the environmental review timeline, a prerequisite for advancing toward construction feasibility.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 98-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) disclosed via an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) on June 9, 2026 that field crews have mobilized and 2026 summer exploration is underway at the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects in Alaska, conducted through its joint venture Ambler Metals LLC with South32 Limited. The filing also noted that Ambler Metals appointed a new President. No financial terms were disclosed. Active summer field operations are the primary near-term catalyst for Trilogy, as drill results from the Upper Kobuk projects (including the Arctic VMS deposit) drive exploration-stage valuation.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 18-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) and its joint venture partners Ambler Metals LLC and South32 Limited entered into an amendment on May 30, 2026 with the U.S. Department of War, extending the deadline in their binding letter of intent (originally dated October 6, 2025) from May 31, 2026 to July 31, 2026 to allow time to finalize definitive documentation. The transaction in question is a proposed strategic equity investment of US$35.6 million by the DOW into the Ambler Metals joint venture. All other LOI terms remain unchanged. A U.S. government strategic equity stake of $35.6 million in a critical minerals project signals strong geopolitical backing for the Upper Kobuk copper-cobalt assets, which matters for permitting and funding certainty.

8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KShareholder voteMay 148-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 78-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 218-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 28-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 9 other (3 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys · 1 earnings 8-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Rare Earth Stocks Slide On Oversupply Fearsinvestors.com·8d agoTrilogy Metals Announces Publication of Federal and State Permitting Schedule for Arctic Project, Establishing Defined Timeline Toward a Record of Decision by September 2028prnewswire.com·13d agoTrilogy Metals Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results and Provides Update on Federal Permitting Progress and Project Advancementprnewswire.com·21d agoCould Buying These 3 Rare Earth Stocks Make You Rich?fool.com·32d agoPentagon Bets $725M On Energy Fuels — 5 Rare Earth Stocks To Watchbenzinga.com·40d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $TMQ on X in the last 7 days.

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