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MPMP

MP Materials Corp.

$MP·$7.2B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$40.17-3.5%YTD-17.6%1Y-52.1%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
MPMP
$MPMP Materials Corp.
$40.17-3.46%751 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $MP on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

751X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $MP's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 52% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-15

Jefferies reiterates Buy with a $85 PT flagging a $300-400M magnet EBITDA path, and posts frame DoE's $73M 'Mine of the Future' push plus 2027 DFARS deadline expansion as structural tailwinds. A rare-earth 1000%+ setup narrative dominates the crowd tone.

Read what X is saying about $MP

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MP — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

The only US rare-earth miner is near 52-week lows while revenue doubled and policy tailwinds build — the gap is the trade.

MP Materials runs Mountain Pass, the only operating rare-earth mine and refinery in the United States. The stock has been in a drawdown as Chinese pricing cycled lower, but revenue is inflecting hard and the policy tailwinds are becoming concrete.

  • The business is reaccelerating: Q1 revenue +119% YoY as magnet production ramped and refined output grew — operating margin is still -39%, so this is a volume-and-pricing bet, not a current-earnings story.
  • The structural setup is real: DoE's $73M "Mine of the Future" grant and the 2027 DFARS expansion forcing defense primes to buy domestic rare earths are both specific, dated policy supports — not hopeful chatter.
  • 52-week range position of 13% while Jefferies models an $85 PT and $300-400M of magnet EBITDA says the market is still pricing Chinese-pricing risk, not the DFARS cliff — the gap is the trade.

Nov 5 Q3 is the near-term test — any update on magnet-plant throughput and DoD contract flow extends the move off the lows. A soft neodymium pricing environment with no new contracts and the floor keeps getting tested.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has the right catalysts — the Jefferies PT, the DoE grant, the 2027 DFARS cliff, the rare-earth 10x setup narrative — all substantively supported. The caveat is that the policy benefits take time, and the Chinese pricing cycle is still the daily driver.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q3 earnings — magnet-plant production update, any Pentagon or DoE contract additions, and operating-cash-flow trajectory. A new dilutive raise or weak REE pricing commentary extends the drawdown.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $MP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Owns and operates Mountain Pass, the only U.S. rare earth mine, producing neodymium-praseodymium for EV motors and defense magnets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MP.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout remains the structural driver: MP Materials trades on Beijing's forced divestiture of Chinese shareholder, reinforcing supply-chain-security thesis.

What this means for $MP

Neutral — Owns and operates Mountain Pass, the only U.S. rare earth mine, producing neodymium-praseodymium for EV motors and defense magnets.

Industry benchmark

16-name peer basket
-7.9%YTD
-29.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-147.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-2.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-39.4%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-3.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
30.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-3.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
24.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$-0.01$-0.01+0.6%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$0.03$-0.03+206.5%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.09$0.06+53.9%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.10$-0.17+42.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-0.01

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$132.9M+118.6%44.1%-19.5%$-0.04$-79.3M
Q4 FY25$103.7M+70.0%32.8%-0.2%$0.05$-109.3M
Q3 FY25$53.6M-14.9%9.5%-125%$-0.24$-92.5M
Q2 FY25$57.4M+83.6%-24.1%-76.5%$-0.19$-32.7M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$451.3M$428.7M – $472.9M$0.02-$0.08 – $0.1210
FY27$769.1M$749.0M – $781.6M$0.74$0.27 – $1.1110
FY28$972.1M$718.9M – $1.3B$1.33$0.67 – $2.2312
FY29$1.2B$960.5M – $1.4B$1.52$1.19 – $2.0010
FY30$1.9B$1.6B – $2.4B$2.62$2.05 – $3.456

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.4%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-21.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-28.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 144.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.995-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 9Rosenthal Michael StuartCOO10.0K sh$543KSellJun 3James H. LitinskyCEO185.2K sh$12.8MSellMay 29James H. LitinskyCEO50.0K sh$3.2MSellMay 28James H. LitinskyCEO234.7K sh$15.5MSellMay 27James H. LitinskyCEO115.3K sh$7.5MBuyMay 20Rosenthal Michael StuartCOO17.0K sh$963KSellMay 13James H. LitinskyCEO177.2K sh$11.5MSellMay 12James H. LitinskyCEO122.8K sh$8.1MSellMay 8Hoops Elliot DeanGeneral Counsel and Secretary7.0K sh$522KSellMay 8Ryan CorbettCFO20.0K sh$1.5M
1–10 of 11
+ 12 other (8 awards · 4 exempts) in window

See when $MP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 108-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

MP Materials Corp. held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026. Class III directors Arnold W. Donald (78M for, 13.6M withheld) and Randall J. Weisenburger (74.7M for, 16.9M withheld) were elected for terms until the 2029 annual meeting; Weisenburger's higher withhold (~18% of votes cast) is a notable governance signal. Named executive officer compensation was approved on an advisory basis (70.5M for, 20.7M against — a meaningful ~23% against vote), and KPMG LLP was ratified as independent auditor for fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The elevated opposition to executive compensation warrants attention given MP Materials' strategic role in rare earth supply chains.

+ 7 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

USA Rare Earth Climbs 4% as Month-Long Selloff Pauses; MP Materials Ticks Up, United States Antimony Dips247wallst.com·2d agoCritical Metals Rises 4% on Trump’s Greenland Mineral Exploration Plan; USA Rare Earth Declines 3%, MP Materials Slips 2%247wallst.com·3d agoCan MP Materials Sustain the Growth Momentum in Its Materials Segment?zacks.com·4d agoUSA Rare Earth Drops 6% With Milestone-Based Government Funding Still Ahead of It; MP Materials Falls 6%, Critical Metals Holds Steady247wallst.com·5d agoChina Still Dominates Rare Earths—These 3 U.S. Companies Could Benefitmarketbeat.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · top 7 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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