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USUSAR

USA Rare Earth Inc

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normPrice and volume picking upBullish-leaning chatter
$USAR·$1.8B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$17.31-4.8%YTD+41.0%1Y+11.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-08: 85 posts2026-07-09: 109 posts2026-07-10: 117 posts2026-07-11: 41 posts2026-07-12: 83 posts2026-07-13: 235 posts2026-07-14: 171 posts844+38%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
USUSAR
$USARUSA Rare Earth Inc
$17.31-4.84%844 posts+38%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $USAR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-15

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

US Rare Earth just leased 800K sqft in South Carolina and made the DOE $19.3M shortlist — supply-chain-sovereignty tape at the aggressive-add level.

USA Rare Earth is a critical-minerals company building an integrated NdFeB (neodymium-iron-boron) magnet supply chain from mining to refining to magnet manufacturing — the specific US-onshore capability the defense and EV industries need to reduce China dependence. The stock is up 54% over twelve months and 48% year-to-date, coiling at 23rd percentile of the 52-week range after a June pullback.

Why the story is inflecting:

  • The DOE grant shortlist is genuine: USAR was named to the US Department of Energy's potential funding list at up to $19.3M in federal grants (subject to final negotiations) — this is the specific Biden-and-Trump-era supply-chain-sovereignty policy support that separates real strategic assets from vaporware.
  • The Blacksburg, SC facility lease (June 2) is real infrastructure: a 15-year lease on approximately 800,000 sqft on 129.9 acres for rare-earth magnet manufacturing — this establishes the largest US onshore magnet production footprint, and the scale is what makes the FY28+ revenue math (consensus $1.4B) credible.
  • Growth is early-stage: Q1 revenue was just $5.7M (up from near zero), with gross margin still negative at -35% and operating margin at -644% — this is a genuinely pre-scale business with material cash burn ($57M Q1 FCF).
  • A June 3 material definitive agreement valued at ~$1.6B could be transformative — the specific counterparty and structure aren't in the excerpt, but at that scale it would materially expand the company's capital base and pipeline.

The August 10 print is the coil-release event — a beat with FY26 revenue guide holding plus concrete Blacksburg construction timeline and the $1.6B agreement clarified is what powers the tape back toward $22, while another quarter of deep operating losses without commercial-partnership progress is what would extend the coiling into a re-test of the June support.

Agrees with X sentimentX's read of the DOE $19.3M shortlist, the Trump-administration cost-basis floor, and the aggressive-add zone below $17 is genuinely supported by the fundamentals. The 15-year Blacksburg lease and $1.6B material agreement provide the concrete strategic infrastructure the tape framing needs.

What to watch: The August 10 Q2 print — FY26 revenue guidance, Blacksburg construction milestones, and the $1.6B material definitive agreement counterparty and terms. A beat with the agreement clarified powers the run back toward $22; another deep-loss quarter without commercial progress extends the coiling to June support.

On the calendar: 2026-08-10 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment9 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

USA Rare Earths chatter is bullish accumulation. USAR is approaching HL support trend line + a solid volume shelf in the high $16 range - 'anything between $16-$17 would be solid R/R to play a bottom.' Community notes USAR bounce alongside CORZ and SOXL. A H&S pattern developed in June has now touched 1+ year ascending support - traders adding shares between $16.5-$17.5. Six months after the Trump-admin involvement price is roughly back to where the rally started - a reset. Community broadly patient long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $USAR

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Developing a domestic U.S. supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets and rare earth processing targeting defense, automotive, and industrial demand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $USAR.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — MP Materials and USARE (US Rare Earths) benefit from the US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout as defense and EV applications require secure non-Chinese..

What this means for $USAR

Partial — supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets and rare earth processing targeting defense, automotive, and industrial demand; the US domestic rare earth supply chain build-out and critical mineral security is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
-6.3%YTD
+25.4%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-4.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-11.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
295.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-76.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-45.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 13, 2026$-0.12$-0.13+7.7%
Q4 2025Mar 30, 2026$-0.19$-0.12-58.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-0.25$-0.06-316.7%
Q2 2025Aug 11, 2025$-0.08$-0.13+38.5%
Next earningsMon, Aug 10·consensus EPS $-0.11

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.7M—-35.1%-644%$-0.34$-57.1M
Q4 FY25$1.6M—-47.4%-1590%$-0.37$-51.9M
Q3 FY25$0———$-1.64$-9.9M
Q2 FY25$0———$-1.54$-12.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$79.3M$69.7M – $88.9M-$0.51-$0.59 – -$0.432
FY27$549.5M$491.5M – $607.5M-$0.21-$0.21 – -$0.204
FY28$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$0.32$0.02 – $0.555
FY29$2.3B$1.7B – $3.2B$1.24$0.82 – $1.842
FY30$3.2B$2.4B – $4.4B$2.71$1.80 – $4.042

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.19%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-25.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-14.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 68.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today11.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.485-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 8Carolyn TrabucoDirector13.0K sh$296KBuyJan 29Carolyn TrabucoDirector1.3K sh$29KBuyJan 29Michael BlitzerDirector100.0K sh$2.1M
+ 27 other (13 awards · 12 exempts · 1 inkind · 1 other) in window

See when $USAR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 188-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. decided on June 16, 2026 to end its relationship with General Counsel David Kronenfeld via a Transition and Separation Agreement: Kronenfeld's active employment ends August 7, 2026, followed by a six-month consulting transition to assist with handoff of responsibilities. No successor General Counsel is named in the excerpt. Administrative legal officer departure; the transition period suggests an orderly exit, though losing the GC during a period of active permitting and development activity for a rare earth mining company warrants attention.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 9SC 13D/A
AI summary

Mordechai Zev Gutnick (Australia) and affiliated entities, including The Critical Minerals Trust and Springfield Six One, filed Amendment No. 1 to Schedule 13D on June 9, 2026 for USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR), disclosing an aggregate 6.8% beneficial ownership stake (15,580,745 shares: 30,483 sole + 15,550,262 shared). The triggering event is June 5, 2026. Gutnick is a mining entrepreneur with critical minerals focus; the 13D (vs. passive 13G) signals active or potential activist intent in this rare earth materials company, making this a material disclosure for USAR investors tracking strategic shareholder activity.

S-3/AShelf registrationJun 5S-3/A
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) filed a Form S-3/A shelf registration statement with the SEC. The registration establishes a securities shelf for future offerings. This is an amendment to a previously filed S-3, typically updating financial information, business descriptions, or correcting disclosures. The shelf enables the company to offer securities in multiple tranches over time, providing capital raising flexibility aligned with market conditions.

8-KShareholder voteJun 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

USAR (USAR) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 38-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $1.6 billion. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

USA Rare Earth signed a 15-year lease for an approximately 800,000 sq ft rare earth magnet manufacturing facility on 129.9 acres in Blacksburg, South Carolina with landlord TC Liberty Development. Transformative milestone: establishes a large-scale US domestic rare earth magnet manufacturing footprint, strategically significant for supply chain sovereignty.

S-3Shelf registrationMay 13S-3
AI summary

USAR filed a S-3 shelf registration statement dated 2026-05-13. The shelf provides capacity to issue equity or debt as market conditions allow. No immediate capital raise is triggered; watch for prospectus supplements disclosing actual transactions.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

USAR disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-23). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 39 other (8 8-Ks · 6 proxys · 5 13Gs · 3 EFFECTs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

USA Rare Earth Produces Commercial Grade Dysprosium Oxide and Neodymium-Praseodymium Oxide Samples from Recycled Magnet Material at Wheat Ridge Facilityglobenewswire.com·2d agoHere's Why USA Rare Earth Stock Rocketed 81% Higher in the First Half of 2026fool.com·2d ago3 Rare-Earth ETFs That Help Investors Balance Exposure and Riskmarketbeat.com·4d agoWhat's driving US critical minerals stocks higher on Tuesday?invezz.com·9d agoHere's Why Shares in USA Rare Earth Slumped 23% in Junefool.com·11d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · top 4 · last 7 days

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