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USUSAR

USA Rare Earth Inc

$USAR·$1.4B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$17.82-0.9%YTD+40.7%1Y+27.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 104 posts2026-08-22: 25 posts2026-08-23: 30 posts345-1%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
USUSAR
$USARUSA Rare Earth Inc
$17.82-0.94%345 posts-1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $USAR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

The government has essentially anchored USA Rare Earth as a strategic supplier — 15-year offtake, $1.55B SPV, guaranteed pricing floors.

USA Rare Earth is a domestic rare-earth mining and processing company that has been repositioned by the US government as a strategic supplier of magnets and rare-earth materials — the story is the offtake, not the mine yet.

How it works:

  • Government backing is explicit: a $1.55B SPV is fully capitalized, the Department of War upsized its investment to $750M (from $500M) supporting the Serra Verde offtake in Brazil, plus $300M forward-purchase and a 15-year offtake on 100% of Serra Verde Phase 1 with guaranteed pricing floors.
  • Revenue base is tiny vs the market cap: quarterly revenue of $5.7M against a $1.44B market cap (295x sales) — the equity is pricing the offtake option, not the P&L; every construction delay compresses that option.
  • Cash burn is the near-term risk: $57M/quarter run rate means the runway needs government-linked financing to close on schedule, otherwise dilution risk hits the $18 handle immediately.
  • The Texas Mineral Resources merger closed August 7 — consolidates the domestic supply-chain thesis and reduces corporate-action overhang.
  • Price action is coiled: 20% of the 52-week range, near both moving averages, quiet volume — accumulation-shaped after the merger and offtake, not a chase.

Watch two things: additional named offtake counterparties or magnet-purchase contracts (each converts optionality into revenue) and any financing — a fresh raise before the guaranteed price floors kick in breaks the coil down.

Agrees with X sentimentAgree — the crowd's specific anchors (DoW $750M, $1.55B SPV, 15-year Serra Verde offtake with guaranteed floors, White House strategic-name designation, Trump 'do magnets') map to real filings and the setup is genuinely government-anchored; the honest add is the $57M/quarter burn and the equity is still 295x sales.

What to watch: Additional named offtake counterparties or magnet-purchase contracts (each converts optionality into revenue visibility) and any fresh equity raise — a raise before the guaranteed pricing floors kick in breaks the coil down to the $14 support.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment40 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-30

Conviction runs high after USA Rare Earth capitalized its $1.55 billion Serra Verde offtake vehicle, including a $750M Department of War investment and a $300M forward purchase contract. Posters call the acquisition 'substantially de-risked' and frame USAR as one of four White House-backed critical-minerals names alongside MP, with technical setups pointing at a $21.50 breakout and longer targets in the mid-thirties.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $USAR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Developing a domestic U.S. supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets and rare earth processing targeting defense, automotive, and industrial demand.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $USAR.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

Reshoring and infrastructure legislation are the structural demand pull for industrial materials; inventory destocking earlier in the cycle appears largely complete. Pricing power varies widely — commodity-linked materials face more volatility than engineered specialty products.

What this means for $USAR

Partial — upstream oil & gas exposure ties to commodity price cycle; USA Rare Earth Inc.

Industry benchmark

16-name peer basket
+8.6%YTD
+75.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-10.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-4.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-11.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-6.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
295.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-76.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-45.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 10, 2026$-0.15$-0.11-33.9%
Q1 2026May 13, 2026$-0.12$-0.13+7.7%
Q4 2025Mar 30, 2026$-0.19$-0.12-58.3%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$-1.64$-0.10-1582.1%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $-0.16

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.7M—-35.1%-644%$-0.34$-57.1M
Q4 FY25$1.6M—-47.4%-1590%$-0.37$-51.9M
Q3 FY25$0———$-1.64$-9.9M
Q2 FY25$0———$-1.54$-12.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$79.3M$69.7M – $88.9M-$0.51-$0.59 – -$0.432
FY27$549.5M$491.5M – $607.5M-$0.21-$0.23 – -$0.204
FY28$1.4B$1.4B – $1.4B$0.31$0.02 – $0.535
FY29$2.3B$1.7B – $3.2B$1.20$0.80 – $1.792
FY30$3.2B$2.4B – $4.4B$2.67$1.77 – $3.962

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.20%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-6.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 193.5M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.585-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 8Carolyn TrabucoDirector13.0K sh$296K
+ 28 other (15 awards · 12 exempts · 1 inkind) in window

See when $USAR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KAcquisition completedAug 78-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) completed its previously announced merger with Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (TMRC) on August 7, 2026, a deal first announced March 4, 2026. Under the merger agreement, each TMRC share was converted into 0.043279843 shares of USAR common stock, based on 88,339,693 TMRC shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, resulting in the issuance of approximately 3,823,328 new USAR shares to TMRC holders. The transaction was structured as a two-step merger with TMRC surviving as a wholly owned subsidiary of USAR. This acquisition consolidates two of the more prominent domestic rare earth development companies, with TMRC's Round Top deposit in Texas complementing USAR's Oklahoma-based operations — a strategically significant combination as the U.S. seeks to build a domestic critical minerals supply chain.

8-KUnregistered equity saleJul 238-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

USAR filed an 8-K under Item 8.01 reporting: entered into a Share Purchase and Investment Agreement (the “Investment Agreement”) by and among (i) Frédéric Carencotte (the “Founder”), a French citizen, (ii) CareInvest, a French société par actions simplifiée controlled by the Founder (together with the Founder, the “Majority Shareholders”), (iii) USAR, (iv) InfraVia CMF Invest S. This is classified as an "other event" — investors should assess materiality in the context of the company's strategy and size.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 208-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) announced a CEO transition on July 19, 2026: Barbara Humpton will retire as CEO and director effective October 1, 2026, receiving 219,329 RSUs vesting on that date and a $500,000 pro-rated 2026 annual bonus. The Board appointed Thrasyvoulos Moraitis, current CEO of Serra Verde Group, as successor CEO effective October 1, 2026 or upon closing of the previously disclosed business combination with Serra Verde. The leadership handoff is directly tied to the Serra Verde transaction, with Moraitis's appointment designed to integrate the two organizations under unified management.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) filed an 8-K on July 16, 2026, providing an update related to its previously-announced merger with SVRE Holdings Ltd. (Serra Verde Rare Earths Ltd., BVI), under a definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger dated April 19, 2026; merger sub is Middlebury Merger Sub Ltd. (wholly owned BVI subsidiary of USAR). The filing checks the Rule 14a-12 soliciting materials box, indicating proxy-related materials are being filed. No new financial terms are disclosed in the excerpt beyond the original agreement. This is part of the ongoing shareholder approval process for USAR's rare earths consolidation deal.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 188-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. decided on June 16, 2026 to end its relationship with General Counsel David Kronenfeld via a Transition and Separation Agreement: Kronenfeld's active employment ends August 7, 2026, followed by a six-month consulting transition to assist with handoff of responsibilities. No successor General Counsel is named in the excerpt. Administrative legal officer departure; the transition period suggests an orderly exit, though losing the GC during a period of active permitting and development activity for a rare earth mining company warrants attention.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 9SC 13D/A
AI summary

Mordechai Zev Gutnick (Australia) and affiliated entities, including The Critical Minerals Trust and Springfield Six One, filed Amendment No. 1 to Schedule 13D on June 9, 2026 for USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR), disclosing an aggregate 6.8% beneficial ownership stake (15,580,745 shares: 30,483 sole + 15,550,262 shared). The triggering event is June 5, 2026. Gutnick is a mining entrepreneur with critical minerals focus; the 13D (vs. passive 13G) signals active or potential activist intent in this rare earth materials company, making this a material disclosure for USAR investors tracking strategic shareholder activity.

S-3/AShelf registrationJun 5S-3/A
AI summary

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) filed a Form S-3/A shelf registration statement with the SEC. The registration establishes a securities shelf for future offerings. This is an amendment to a previously filed S-3, typically updating financial information, business descriptions, or correcting disclosures. The shelf enables the company to offer securities in multiple tranches over time, providing capital raising flexibility aligned with market conditions.

8-KShareholder voteJun 48-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

USAR (USAR) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

+ 49 other (10 proxys · 8 8-Ks · 5 13Gs · 4 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Prediction: USA Rare Earth Doubles Before 2028fool.com·3d agoUSA Rare Earth Is Burning Through Cash at $57 Million a Quarter. At That Rate, Here's How Long the Money Lasts.fool.com·3d agoCritical Metals Spikes 19%, MP Materials and United States Antimony Lag: Is the European Lithium Merger Driving the Move?247wallst.com·7d agoUSA Rare Earth Stock Dips Despite $1.55 Billion Government-Backed Offtake Milestonebenzinga.com·7d agoHere's What a $1,000 Bet on USA Rare Earth a Year Ago Looks Like Todayfool.com·7d ago

In themes

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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