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RKRKLB

Rocket Lab USA, Inc.

$RKLB·$39B·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$67.62+0.4%YTD-4.3%1Y+31.7%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 2,158 posts2026-07-11: 1,078 posts2026-07-12: 696 posts2026-07-13: 3,703 posts2026-07-14: 5,525 posts2026-07-15: 8,190 posts2026-07-16: 8,061 posts29,499+46%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
RKRKLB
$RKLBRocket Lab USA, Inc.
$67.62+0.40%29k posts+46%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $RKLB, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-18

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

Rocket Lab is the smaller SpaceX proxy taking the punishment for the actual SpaceX IPO — and the founder just dumped roughly $290M into it.

Rocket Lab is the small-launch and satellite-platform business that just announced a $2B-plus deal to buy Iridium's LEO satellite network, turning itself from a launch operator into a would-be end-to-end space company. The tape has broken down alongside the sector as SpaceX slipped below its IPO price, and the crowd is watching to see whether the 200-day and the $75 zone are the floor.

  • The revenue engine is real for a pre-profit space name: Q1 revenue grew 63% YoY to $200M, gross margins are up to 37%, and the $2.2B backlog gives visibility that a normal launcher does not carry — this isn't a story stock without a business under it.
  • The insider signal is the loudest in the batch, and it is negative: founder-CEO Peter Beck sold about $286M of stock in three linked disposals on July 8, on top of a $9.5M sale from officer Arjun Kampani in June. Rule-10b5-1 or not, a founder cashing out at that scale into a drawdown is the market's own explanation for why buyers won't step in.
  • The Iridium bet is transformative but takes years to underwrite: the deal folds a mature LEO constellation into an unfinished launch business, and until Neutron actually flies commercially the market has no template for what the combined company is worth.
  • The technical damage is not repaired: the stock trades 36% below its 50-day, sits in the bottom quarter of the 52-week range, and has a Piper Sandler $83 initiation as the honest 'this is still expensive' voice — Morgan Stanley's $293 bull case is a call on Neutron working, not on current cash flows.

The near-term line in the sand is the $74-75 zone the sentiment tape flags; a decisive break there with volume, especially before the August 6 earnings print, closes the door on the dip-buy narrative and hands the tape to the SpaceX-fallout thesis.

Differs from X sentimentThe X read leans dip-buy on Morgan Stanley's $293 bull case and the 200-day-hold; we disagree in scale — a $286M founder sale into a drawdown is a stronger signal than any sell-side target, and the tape is still lower highs and lower lows.

What to watch: Whether $74-75 holds through the August 6 Q2 earnings report. A clean hold plus a Neutron commercial-window update restarts the story; a break through with volume seals the breakdown into the sub-$60s.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment31 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

Rocket Lab is being described as one of the sharpest space-sector drawdowns, falling from $151 to $75 in step with SpaceX slipping below its IPO price. Morgan Stanley carries a bull-case target of $293 anchored on Neutron, the Iridium acquisition, a $2.2B backlog and progress toward a fully integrated space platform; Piper Sandler initiated at Neutral with a $83 target. Bulls buy the dip aggressively, cite the 200-day moving average holding, and see Peter Beck's BBC interview and NASA FFR mission as validation. Bears counter that RKLB now trades in near-lockstep with SPCX at 38x price ratio, that recent equity dilution contradicts management, and that further downside is likely if $74.79 does not hold.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $RKLB

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides small satellite launch (Electron rocket) and spacecraft manufacturing, with Neutron medium-lift rocket in development.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $RKLB.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $RKLB

Partial — Provides small satellite launch (Electron rocket) and spacecraft manufacturing, with Neutron medium-lift rocket in development; the defense budget expansion and space commercialization is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+7.1%YTD
+17.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-365.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-8.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-33.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-0.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
93.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-12.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
36.6%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.02$-0.07+70.2%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$-0.09$-0.10+8.9%
Q3 2025Nov 10, 2025$0.01$-0.10+110.1%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$-0.10$-0.10-5.0%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $-0.03

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$200.3M+63.5%38.2%-27.9%$-0.07$-77.4M
Q4 FY25$179.7M+35.7%38.0%-28.4%$-0.09$-114.2M
Q3 FY25$155.1M+48.0%37.0%-38.0%$-0.03$-69.4M
Q2 FY25$144.5M+36.0%32.1%-41.3%$-0.13$-55.3M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 14 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$915.7M$906.8M – $935.5M-$0.21-$0.33 – -$0.1014
FY27$1.3B$1.1B – $1.4B$0.01-$0.01 – $0.0414
FY28$1.6B$1.6B – $1.6B$0.23$0.10 – $0.539
FY29$2.1B$1.9B – $2.4B$0.57$0.50 – $0.654
FY30$2.7B$2.4B – $2.9B$0.92$0.80 – $1.044

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.26%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-36.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-12.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 539.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today4.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.555-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 8Peter BeckCEO991.0K sh$82.1MSellJul 7Peter BeckCEO1.3M sh$110.3MSellJul 6Peter BeckCEO986.2K sh$94.0MSellJun 18Arjun KampaniSVP & General Counsel88.0K sh$9.5MSellJun 2Alexander R SluskyDirector40.0K sh$4.9MSellMay 28Alexander R SluskyDirector60.0K sh$9.0MSellMay 28Frank KleinChief Operations Officer36.9K sh$5.4MSellMay 28Clevenger Marvin BradfordPresident3.5K sh$513KSellMay 28Arjun KampaniSVP & General Counsel14.5K sh$2.1MSellMay 27Arjun KampaniSVP & General Counsel60.9K sh$8.8M
1–10 of 23
+ 15 other (9 awards · 5 gifts · 1 conversion) in window

See when $RKLB insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJun 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Rocket Lab entered an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Iridium Communications on June 28, 2026; Iridium will become an indirect wholly-owned RKLB subsidiary via a two-step merger (Merger Sub I into Iridium, then Iridium into Merger Sub II). Full deal terms and consideration are cut off in the excerpt. Transformative proposed acquisition of Iridium by Rocket Lab; Iridium's LEO satellite network would complement Rocket Lab's launch capabilities.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 53
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of RKLB securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at RKLB.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 58-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

RKLB (RKLB) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The filing reports both a departure and an appointment in Chief Financial Officer. Individuals named in the filing include Its Charter, Other Jurisdiction. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

8-KShareholder voteMay 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) filed an 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). Rocket Lab is a Long Beach, California-based space launch and satellite technology company listed on Nasdaq. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)May 20424B5
AI summary

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on May 20, 2026, establishing an at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program of up to $3 billion of common stock through 15 sales agents including BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank. The ATM also includes forward sale provisions allowing for capital-efficient forward equity offerings. This is a very large ATM program for a space technology company; while shares need not all be sold at once, the $3B ceiling signals significant potential future dilution as Rocket Lab executes its growth strategy.

8-KUnregistered equity saleApr 148-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

RKLB filed an 8-K Item 7.01 (Reg FD) disclosure dated 2026-04-14. Reg FD disclosures make material information simultaneously available to all investors; content may include guidance updates, strategic plans, or preliminary results.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 63
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for RKLB on 2026-04-06, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

RKLB disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-03-30). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Peter Beck, the Company’s Chairman and Chief Executive. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 23 other (4 425s · 3 routine 8-Ks · 3 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Stock of the Day: Where Is the Bottom for Rocket Lab?benzinga.com·14h agoPrediction Markets Are Betting Against Rocket Lab: Here's What the Odds Say247wallst.com·22h agoElon Musk's SpaceX IPO Reset the Entire Space Sector. Here Are 2 Space Stocks I Would Buy the Dip On Without Hesitation.fool.com·22h agoAST SpaceMobile vs. Rocket Lab: Which Stock Is The Superior SpaceX Competitor?fool.com·1d agoWhy Rocket Lab Stock Is Losing Altitude Todayfool.com·2d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Space EconomyDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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