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PYPYPL

PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Hot onWhy it's trendingX chatter spiked vs its recent normBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$PYPL·$40B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$56.56-0.3%YTD-3.6%1Y-23.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 490 posts2026-07-11: 161 posts2026-07-12: 301 posts2026-07-13: 624 posts2026-07-14: 322 posts2026-07-15: 2,757 posts2026-07-16: 846 posts5,571+105%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
PYPYPL
$PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.
$56.56-0.30%5.6k posts+105%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $PYPL, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

A $53B Stripe-Advent take-private bid just made this a buyout situation, not a business story.

PayPal is the branded checkout button plus Braintree unbranded processor plus Venmo consumer wallet — a still-huge but low-growth payments franchise the market had left for dead. A joint bid from Stripe and Advent at $60.50/share has now reframed the entire trade.

What matters this week:

  • The bid is live at a premium to the tape: Stripe/Advent's $60.50 offer is roughly a 7% premium to the $56.73 close, the board has already signaled 'inadequate' per Reuters, and Michael Burry — no PayPal fan on the fundamentals — called the price 'simply too low,' pointing at a higher clearing number.
  • The standalone business justifies pushback: PayPal generates 14% free-cash-flow yield on a 12-month basis, trades at 8x earnings against consensus $5.30 FY27 EPS, and grew Q1 revenue 7% YoY with 18% operating margin — not a growth story but a profitable, sub-cost-of-capital multiple that gives the board cover to hold out.
  • Insider action tells you nothing yet: the recent Form 4s from officers Aaron Webster, Frank Keller and Chris Natali are 10b5-1 vestings and tax-withheld share issuances — not read-throughs on management's view of the deal.
  • The $PYUSD stablecoin push and Polygon integration are the 'ignore the deal' upside: they'd be interesting on a two-year view, but in a live take-private situation they only matter as ammunition for a higher counter-offer, not as a standalone catalyst.

The forward look: with a real bid on the table this is now a deal-arb setup with two paths. Board and Stripe/Advent negotiate a higher number — $65-70 is where the bulls (Burry included) think a full price lives — and the stock closes most of that gap once terms firm. Talks collapse and the stock gives back the buyout premium and re-anchors to the standalone $50-55 range on the current earnings power. A firm term-sheet or a hard walk-away statement in the next few weeks is what decides it.

What to watch: Any board response, revised bid, or interloper (Amazon, Adyen, private-equity consortium) commentary in the next 30 days; the July 28 Q2 print becomes a negotiating datapoint rather than a standalone catalyst.

On the calendar: 2026-07-28 — Q2 2026 earnings (in the middle of the take-private negotiation)

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment33 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-17

PayPal chatter is dominated by a single deal announcement: Stripe and Advent International submitted a non-binding joint offer to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share, valuing the company at roughly $53B, backed by about $50B in bank financing. The stock jumped 15-25% in after-hours and above the $60 handle intraday, and a widely-shared unusually large $300k call trade at the $50 strike before the news was flagged as suspicious pre-positioning. Bulls celebrate the takeout after a long value drawdown. The critical thread argues management would be selling Venmo, Braintree and PYUSD at an all-time-low 10x forward earnings and that a bidding war with anti-trust concerns should push the price higher; several posters explicitly say the board should not accept $60.50.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $PYPL

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates PayPal and Venmo digital payments platforms processing transactions for merchants and consumers globally.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $PYPL.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI agents transacting autonomously on behalf of consumers could decouple purchase decisions from card rails, threatening the interchange fee model.

What this means for $PYPL

Neutral — Operates PayPal and Venmo digital payments platforms processing transactions for merchants and consumers globally; the consumer credit resilience and AI agent payment channel expansion does not materially affect this business's near-term earnings.

Industry benchmark

14-name peer basket
+1.0%YTD
-15.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
8.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
15.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
17.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
14.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
25.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
46.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.34$1.27+5.5%
Q4 2025Feb 3, 2026$1.23$1.29-4.7%
Q3 2025Oct 28, 2025$1.34$1.20+11.7%
Q2 2025Jul 29, 2025$1.40$1.30+7.7%
Next earningsTue, Jul 28·consensus EPS $1.28

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$8.4B+7.2%45.6%17.8%$1.22$911.0M
Q4 FY25$8.7B+3.7%46.5%17.4%$1.54$2.2B
Q3 FY25$8.4B+7.3%46.0%18.1%$1.31$1.7B
Q2 FY25$8.3B+5.1%46.4%18.1%$1.30$692.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 32 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$34.4B$34.1B – $34.7B$5.31$5.16 – $5.5231
FY27$35.8B$35.4B – $36.3B$5.75$5.26 – $6.0532
FY28$37.3B$37.2B – $37.3B$6.27$5.44 – $6.9525
FY29$38.1B$37.5B – $39.2B$6.23$6.10 – $6.4612
FY30$43.3B$42.6B – $44.5B$7.63$7.48 – $7.9112

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.45%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+27.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+7.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 880.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.335-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 15Jamie S MillerChief Fin & Op Officer6.1K sh$255KSellJun 3Chris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer552 sh$24KSellJun 3Suzan KereerePresident3.4K sh$145KSellJun 3Frank KellerPres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal4.6K sh$196KSellMay 19Suzan KereerePresident4.2K sh$184KSellApr 29Frank KellerPres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal10.7K sh$536KSellApr 29Chris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer1.3K sh$66KSellMar 3Frank KellerEVP, GM, Large Ent & Mer Plat.8.9K sh$402KSellMar 3Chris NataliSVP, Chief Accounting Officer2.2K sh$99KSellMar 3Suzan KereerePresident13.5K sh$622K
+ 54 other (19 exempts · 18 inkinds · 17 awards) in window

See when $PYPL insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeMay 218-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) filed an 8-K on May 19, 2026 disclosing a personnel change (Item 5.02) and annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07). PayPal is a San Jose, California-based digital payments company listed on Nasdaq. The excerpt does not identify the specific executive; an officer change at a fintech giant can be material if at the C-suite level.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

PYPL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-30). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3 (initial ownership statement) for PYPL on 2026-03-26, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

8-KOfficer or director changeMar 258-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

PYPL disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-03-25). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Chief Executive Officer of Block Inc. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

8-KOfficer or director changeFeb 38-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 14 other (4 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Paypal (PYPL) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Knowzacks.com·1d agoPayPal board sees Stripe-Advent offer as inadequate, sources sayreuters.com·1d agoMichael Burry Says PayPal's $60.50 Buyout Offer Is "Simply Too Low." Here's the Case for a Higher Bid.fool.com·1d agoPayPal Deal Buzz: Can New Owners Fix Profitability Pressure?zacks.com·1d agoPayPal Stock Surges on $53 Billion Stripe-Advent Buyout Bidmarketbeat.com·2d ago

In themes

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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