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TickerTalks›$COF
COCOF

Capital One Financial Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 44% YoYStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (155/wk), no spike
$COF·$128B·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$209.01-0.5%YTD-14.0%1Y-2.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-25: 19 posts2026-07-26: 12 posts2026-07-27: 14 posts2026-07-28: 21 posts2026-07-29: 26 posts2026-07-30: 30 posts2026-07-31: 33 posts155-11%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
COCOF
$COFCapital One Financial Corporation
$209.01-0.54%155 posts-11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COF, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-31

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Capital One beat Q2 by 21% — the Discover deal integration is finally showing in EPS but the stock is still -14% YTD.

Capital One Financial is a top-tier US consumer credit-card issuer plus the just-integrated Discover Financial (2024 acquisition) — the largest US card issuer by receivables now. This year has been a proper drawdown despite fundamentals that are clearly inflecting.

  • The Q2 print was decisively ahead: EPS of $5.81 versus $4.79 expected (a 21% beat) on revenue of $19.3B (+44% YoY) — the Discover-integration synergies plus auto-origination growth translated directly into a big EPS surprise.
  • The forward setup is attractive: FY26 consensus points to $19.99 EPS growing to $23.90 in FY27, so at 11x forward earnings COF is priced for continued execution rather than any re-rating.
  • The competitive backdrop has a real threat: X Money's 6% APR (double Capital One's) is being flagged as potentially disruptive — the specific consumer-fintech pressure that reopens the multi-year 'card-issuer disintermediation' bear case in bull-market conditions.

The stock is at the 42nd percentile of its 52-week range and slightly above the 200-day — the coiling setup that either bases on the next print or resolves lower. What extends the move is an Oct 20 Q3 beat with continued Discover-integration commentary and auto-origination strength; what breaks the setup is a rise in charge-off rates or any consumer-credit stress disclosure that would echo the June 30 monthly charge-off metrics disclosure.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bull frame — COF's $5.81 adjusted EPS beat on $36.3B revenue, auto originations growing at COF and ALLY — is directly supported by the Q2 print; the X Money 6% APR concern is a fair long-term overhang, though not a near-term catalyst.

What to watch: The Oct 20 Q3 print — specifically charge-off rate trends, Discover-integration synergy realization, and any commentary on X Money or other fintech competitors. Continued Discover-integration wins plus stable credit extends the coiling; a charge-off spike or major consumer credit stress breaks the setup.

On the calendar: 2026-10-20 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-29

Capital One posted Q2 earnings of $3B ($5.81 adjusted EPS) on $36.3B in revenue — 'THE BEAT.' Auto originations for COF and ALLY continue to grow. One concern raised: X Money's 6% APR (double Capital One's) potentially disrupts. Sentiment leans bullish.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COF

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major US bank serving credit cards, auto loans, and digital banking—tech-forward challenger to legacy institutions.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COF.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI agents transacting autonomously on behalf of consumers could decouple purchase decisions from card rails, threatening the interchange fee model.

What this means for $COF

Headwind — Major US bank serving credit cards, auto loans, and digital banking—tech-forward challenger to legacy institutions; legacy positioning faces structural pressure from the primary shift underway in financial - credit services.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
+0.6%YTD
-9.1%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
38.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
1.5%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
4.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
23.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
2.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 21, 2026$5.81$4.79+21.3%
Q1 2026Apr 21, 2026$4.42$4.50-1.8%
Q4 2025Jan 22, 2026$3.86$4.14-6.8%
Q3 2025Oct 21, 2025$5.95$4.49+32.5%
Next earningsTue, Oct 20·consensus EPS $5.37

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$19.3B+44.1%57.8%14.0%$3.34$5.5B
Q4 FY25$19.6B+42.0%57.4%10.7%$3.26$9.0B
Q3 FY25$19.8B+43.7%64.3%22.1%$4.83$8.8B
Q2 FY25$16.4B+23.7%7.0%-36.1%$-8.58$5.7B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 15 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$64.0B$63.4B – $64.3B$20.39$19.95 – $21.0611
FY27$67.8B$65.7B – $69.7B$23.86$22.64 – $24.8415
FY28$71.6B$68.8B – $75.5B$27.70$25.39 – $31.1612
FY29$78.6B$77.0B – $80.8B$39.17$38.14 – $40.5611

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.42%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+1.3%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 608.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.025-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 29Timothy P GoldenSVP, Chief Accounting Officer3.5K sh$736KSellJul 7Matthew W CooperGeneral Counsel & Corp Secy3.5K sh$728KSellMay 13Kaitlin HaggertyChief Human Resources Officer119 sh$22KSellMay 12Kaitlin HaggertyChief Human Resources Officer1.3K sh$240KSellMay 12Matthew W CooperGeneral Counsel & Corp Secy3.5K sh$644KSellMay 1Celia KaramPres, Retail Bank1.7K sh$337KSellApr 1Lia DeanPres, Banking & Prem. Products1.7K sh$314KSellApr 1Celia KaramPres, Retail Bank1.1K sh$204KSellMar 2Celia KaramPres, Retail Bank1.6K sh$312KSellFeb 26Mouadeb Mark DanielPresident1.6K sh$335K
1–10 of 13
+ 23 other (16 awards · 7 inkinds) in window

See when $COF insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 218-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Capital One Financial Corporation disclosed its monthly charge-off and delinquency metrics for the month ended June 30, 2026 via Regulation FD, with specific figures available in the attached Exhibit 99.1. This is a routine monthly consumer credit quality update — not an earnings release — providing visibility into Capital One's credit portfolio performance. Material to assess credit deterioration trends between quarterly earnings reports.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 88-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KPress release / Reg FDMay 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Capital One Financial Corporation filed an 8-K (Items 7.01 and 9.01) on May 15, 2026 (event date May 14, 2026) furnishing investor presentation materials under Reg FD. The XBRL references multiple securities classes — common stock, Series I through N preferred stock, and senior notes due 2029. This is a routine Reg FD investor conference or update filing, though notably timed around the period of Capital One's pending Discover Financial acquisition close.

8-KShareholder voteMay 88-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Capital One Financial Corporation filed an 8-K under Item 5.07 (shareholder vote results) on May 8, 2026, reporting the outcome of proposals voted on at its annual meeting. The XBRL header shows multiple share classes and preferred series registered; no vote tallies or proposal details are visible in the available excerpt. Routine annual meeting disclosure — outcome is broadly administrative unless an activist proposal or say-on-pay rejection appeared, which would require checking the attached exhibit.

8-KPress release / Reg FDApr 218-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Capital One Financial Corporation filed an 8-K under Item 7.01 (Reg FD) on April 21, 2026, furnishing an investor presentation alongside its Q1 earnings release. The excerpt is XBRL header only; the presentation content — likely a Q1 earnings deck covering segment performance, credit quality metrics, and Discover deal integration updates — is attached under Item 9.01. This companion Reg FD filing to the Q1 earnings 8-K is routine but materially relevant given Capital One's landmark pending acquisition of Discover Financial Services.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 78-K — Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KPress release / Reg FDMar 168-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 17 other (3 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Capital One says it closed Trump Organization's accounts after anti-money laundering probereuters.com·1d agoCapital One Financial: Boosting The Income With Preferred Stockseekingalpha.com·2d agoCapital One's Purchase Volume Grew 26%, but Legacy Discover Volume Rose Less Than 2%. Only One Number Describes the Franchise It Bought.fool.com·2d agoCapital One Announces Quarterly Dividendbusinesswire.com·4d agoCapital One Financial Corporation $COF Position Lessened by Alua Capital Management LPdefenseworld.net·8d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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