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ONONTO

Onto Innovation Inc.

$ONTO·$15B·Semiconductors·Technology
$267.21-1.3%YTD+76.9%1Y+157.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 0 posts760%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
ONONTO
$ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.
$267.21-1.32%76 posts0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ONTO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Onto Innovation +77% YTD with the recent acquisition closed — semi-WFE metrology leader cooling on Wave-C technicals.

Onto Innovation is a semiconductor wafer-fabrication-equipment (WFE) inspection and metrology company — advanced packaging is the specific growth vector as HBM and 2.5/3D packaging drive inspection tool demand. The setup is a real-business quality name cooling after a strong run.

  • The core operating trajectory is strong: Q1 revenue grew 9.5% YoY to $292M at a 50% gross margin, Q2 EPS beat at $1.93 vs $1.69 consensus (a ~14% beat), and the sell side models FY27 revenue at ~$1.34B rising to ~$1.91B in FY29 — a real compounding curve driven by the shift toward advanced-packaging inspection.
  • The strategic tape is stacked: papers at ECTC (the packaging conference) jumped from 1 in 2025 to 6 in 2026 — a specific R&D-attention shift that anchors the metrology/inspection growth thesis; the August 9 acquisition (completion disclosed) plus Buy ratings and Strong Buy momentum lists reinforce the constructive frame.
  • The technicals warrant caution: ONTO is down 15%+ since rejecting the 0.786 fib, targeting either the 0.618 or 0.786 fib + 200WMA confluence for Wave C — the crowd itself flags the setup as "fundamentals strong but technicals warrant waiting for the C-wave low." The single director sale ($302K on August 21) is small.

The setup is a real-business quality semi-WFE compounder cooling on Wave-C technicals with real fundamentals underneath — the November 5 Q3 print is the referee, and the market needs continued mid-single-digit revenue growth plus updated advanced-packaging inspection color. A clean beat plus updated Panther metrology segment growth extends the setup back to a bid; a soft print or a growth deceleration below 5% extends the cooling toward the 200-week MA at $250.

Agrees with X sentimentThe genuinely divided X read is honest — bulls' ONTO among WFE market leaders (KLA/ASML/ONTO/LRCX/AMAT) with advanced-packaging R&D shifting toward inspection/metrology tools (ECTC papers jumped from 1 to 6), a 320% wave-3 target, and reassurance that Chinese memory / data-center-backlash noise won't affect these companies is factually consistent with the trend. Bears' Wave-C technicals targeting the 0.618/0.786 fib + 200WMA confluence is a fair chart-based caveat.

What to watch: The November 5 Q3 earnings — need continued mid-single-digit revenue growth, updated Panther metrology segment growth, and reiterated FY27 revenue guide toward the $1.34B consensus. A soft print or a growth deceleration below 5% extends the cooling toward the 200-week MA at $250; a clean beat plus updated advanced-packaging inspection color extends the setup back to a bid.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-27 · top-engagement diverged

Onto Innovation sentiment is genuinely divided. Bulls highlight ONTO among the WFE market leaders (KLA/ASML/ONTO/LRCX/AMAT) with advanced-packaging R&D shifting toward inspection/metrology tools (papers at ECTC jumped from 1 in 2025 to 6 in 2026), a 320% wave-3 target eventually, and reassurance that Chinese memory / data-center-backlash noise won't affect these companies. Bears highlight ONTO's alternative scenario now in play with price down 15%+ since rejecting the 0.786 fib, targeting either the 0.618 fib or 0.786 fib + 200WMA confluence for Wave C. Net tone is a real mix; the modal stance is 'the fundamentals are strong but technicals warrant waiting for the C-wave low'.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ONTO

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes optical metrology and inspection equipment for semiconductor advanced packaging and wafer production yield control.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ONTO.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $ONTO

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; Onto Innovation Inc.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+94.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
118.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
10.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
5.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$1.93$1.69+14.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.42$1.420.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$1.26$1.28-1.6%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.92$0.89+2.9%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $2.30

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$291.9M+9.5%50.1%13.3%$0.68$22.7M
Q4 FY25$266.9M+1.1%46.4%5.2%$0.21$89.9M
Q3 FY25$218.2M-13.5%50.7%10.9%$0.58$82.0M
Q2 FY25$253.6M+4.7%48.2%12.7%$0.69$44.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$1.3B$1.3B – $1.4B$7.20$6.83 – $7.468
FY28$1.7B$1.5B – $1.8B$9.76$8.50 – $10.978
FY29$1.9B$1.7B – $2.2B$11.84$11.52 – $12.095
FY30$2.3B$2.1B – $2.5B$14.38$12.67 – $15.823
FY31$2.8B$2.5B – $3.0B$17.64$15.55 – $19.422

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.58%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-10.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+12.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 49.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.595-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21Susan D LynchDirector1.0K sh$302K
+ 8 other (6 awards · 2 inkinds) in window

See when $ONTO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KAcquisition completedAug 108-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Onto Innovation (ONTO) filed an 8-K on August 11, 2026 (event date August 9) under Items 2.01 and 7.01, announcing the completion of an acquisition and furnishing concurrent Regulation FD investor materials. Item 2.01 indicates Onto has closed on a previously announced acquisition; the acquired entity and transaction value are in the body. Onto Innovation makes optical metrology and inspection systems for semiconductor wafer manufacturing. The Reg FD item covers investor communications about the transaction made public simultaneously.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) filed an 8-K on May 18, 2026 disclosing a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01), new financial obligation (Item 2.03), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and other events (Item 8.01). Onto Innovation is a Wilmington, Massachusetts-based semiconductor process control equipment company. The combination of a new agreement, new debt, and private equity sale strongly suggests a significant acquisition financing or PIPE transaction; this is a material event for ONTO shareholders.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) filed a second 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07), separate from its May 18 multi-item filing disclosing the material agreement and PIPE. Onto Innovation is a Wilmington, Massachusetts-based semiconductor process control equipment company. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ONTO entered into a purchase agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-21). Size: approximately $710 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 13 other (3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Best Momentum Stocks to Buy for August 31stzacks.com·16h agoStrike a Balance Between Growth and Stability With These 3 Names Ready to Rallymarketbeat.com·2d agoOnto Innovation: AI's Next Bottleneck Is Yieldseekingalpha.com·3d agoBest Momentum Stocks to Buy for August 27thzacks.com·5d agoNew Strong Buy Stocks for August 27thzacks.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

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Voices on X · top 3 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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