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ONONTO

Onto Innovation Inc.

$ONTO·$11B·Semiconductors·Technology
$220.70-4.9%YTD+62.1%1Y+62.7%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ONONTO
$ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.
$220.70-4.85%121 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $ONTO on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

121X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ONTO's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Mixed sentiment⚠AI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-27 · top-engagement diverged

Onto Innovation sentiment is genuinely divided. Bulls highlight ONTO among the WFE market leaders (KLA/ASML/ONTO/LRCX/AMAT) with advanced-packaging R&D shifting toward inspection/metrology tools (papers at ECTC jumped from 1 in 2025 to 6 in 2026), a 320% wave-3 target eventually, and reassurance that Chinese memory / data-center-backlash noise won't affect these companies. Bears highlight ONTO's alternative scenario now in play with price down 15%+ since rejecting the 0.786 fib, targeting either the 0.618 fib or 0.786 fib + 200WMA confluence for Wave C. Net tone is a real mix; the modal stance is 'the fundamentals are strong but technicals warrant waiting for the C-wave low'.

Read what X is saying about $ONTO

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ONTO — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Semi-metrology leader up 94% YTD and 129% trailing-12m at 118x TTM earnings on advanced-packaging demand.

Onto Innovation sells macro-defect inspection and 2D/3D optical metrology tools into semiconductor manufacturing, so revenue depends on the mix of advanced-packaging and HBM capacity being built, not just leading-edge logic nodes.

  • Q1 FY26 revenue $291.9M, +9.5% YoY, operating margin 13.3% — margin recovering from the Q4 FY25 compression (5.2%)
  • TTM: 118x earnings, 12x sales, 5.2% ROE, 49% gross margin, 11% operating margin, FCF yield 1.9%, debt-to-equity 0 — pricey for the margin profile
  • 2027 estimates: $1.44B revenue, $8.10 EPS; 2028 $1.88B, $11.77 EPS — modeling 30%+ revenue growth into FY28
  • YTD +94%, trailing-12m +129% at $314.88 against a $13.1B market cap
  • Aug 10 completed an acquisition and furnished Reg FD investor materials; Dragonfly G5 inspection platform cited as growth engine
  • Levi & Korsinsky investigating possible fiduciary breaches by officers and directors — unquantified litigation overhang

The multiple sits on a thesis where advanced-packaging metrology demand compounds through FY28 — the fundamental acceleration is modest (9.5% Q1 revenue growth, 13% margin), but the 118x TTM is treating this as a KLA-adjacent platform.

Agrees with X sentimentX frames ONTO alongside KLA/ASML/LRCX/AMAT as a WFE leader with advanced-packaging R&D (ECTC papers jumped from 1 in 2025 to 6 in 2026), 320% wave-3 upside potential countered by an 'alternative scenario' with price down 15% near-term. The split framing matches the hot-momentum setup — both sides acknowledge the valuation is extended against a credible platform thesis.

What to watch: Nov 5 Q2 earnings and Dragonfly G5 adoption commentary — whether advanced-packaging revenue mix extends operating margin past the Q1 13% or the FY27 EPS reset proves the ceiling.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 Q2 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ONTO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes optical metrology and inspection equipment for semiconductor advanced packaging and wafer production yield control.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ONTO.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural driver with Blackwell supply still packaging-constrained. Jensen Huang publicly named memory bandwidth as AI's next bottleneck, reinforcing HBM3e pricing power. AVGO custom ASIC demand broadens AI beneficiaries beyond NVDA's GPU allocation.

What this means for $ONTO

Direct beneficiary — Makes optical metrology and inspection equipment for semiconductor advanced packaging and wafer production yield control.; CoWoS/SoIC packaging is the Blackwell supply constraint, making OSATs a direct AI capex valve.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+64.5%YTD
+57.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
118.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
10.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
5.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$1.93$1.69+14.2%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.42$1.420.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$1.26$1.28-1.6%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.92$0.89+2.9%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $2.30

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$291.9M+9.5%50.1%13.3%$0.68$22.7M
Q4 FY25$266.9M+1.1%46.4%5.2%$0.21$89.9M
Q3 FY25$218.2M-13.5%50.7%10.9%$0.58$82.0M
Q2 FY25$253.6M+4.7%48.2%12.7%$0.69$44.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$1.4B$1.4B – $1.5B$8.10$7.94 – $8.329
FY28$1.9B$1.8B – $2.0B$11.77$10.92 – $12.949
FY29$2.2B$2.1B – $2.5B$13.94$13.13 – $14.539
FY30$2.7B$2.6B – $2.9B$17.49$16.49 – $18.958
FY31$3.2B$3.1B – $3.5B$21.93$20.68 – $23.763

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.38%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-22.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-15.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 48.8M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.585-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellSep 29Miller David BrianDirector2.0K sh$600KSellAug 21Susan D LynchDirector1.0K sh$302K
+ 10 other (6 awards · 4 inkinds) in window

See when $ONTO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KAcquisition completedAug 108-K — Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Onto Innovation (ONTO) filed an 8-K on August 11, 2026 (event date August 9) under Items 2.01 and 7.01, announcing the completion of an acquisition and furnishing concurrent Regulation FD investor materials. Item 2.01 indicates Onto has closed on a previously announced acquisition; the acquired entity and transaction value are in the body. Onto Innovation makes optical metrology and inspection systems for semiconductor wafer manufacturing. The Reg FD item covers investor communications about the transaction made public simultaneously.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) filed an 8-K on May 18, 2026 disclosing a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01), new financial obligation (Item 2.03), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and other events (Item 8.01). Onto Innovation is a Wilmington, Massachusetts-based semiconductor process control equipment company. The combination of a new agreement, new debt, and private equity sale strongly suggests a significant acquisition financing or PIPE transaction; this is a material event for ONTO shareholders.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) filed a second 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07), separate from its May 18 multi-item filing disclosing the material agreement and PIPE. Onto Innovation is a Wilmington, Massachusetts-based semiconductor process control equipment company. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ONTO entered into a purchase agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-21). Size: approximately $710 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 8 other (2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Onto Innovation: Strong Orders Support Attractive Growth And Valuationseekingalpha.com·14h agoOnto Innovation vs. PDF Solutions: Which Chip Stock is the Better Buy?zacks.com·2d agoOnto Innovation (ONTO) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Knowzacks.com·2d agoWill Onto Innovation's Cash Balance Fuel Its Next Growth Phase?zacks.com·3d agoOnto Innovation Receives Best Partner Award from SK hynix for Hidden Defect Prevention in High Bandwidth Memory Productionbusinesswire.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ONTO on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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