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ONONTO

Onto Innovation Inc.

$ONTO·$16B·Semiconductors·Technology
$281.61-7.6%YTD+73.2%1Y+187.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 44 posts2026-07-10: 27 posts2026-07-11: 4 posts2026-07-12: 15 posts2026-07-13: 6 posts2026-07-14: 18 posts2026-07-15: 11 posts125+11%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
ONONTO
$ONTOOnto Innovation Inc.
$281.61-7.59%125 posts+11%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ONTO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Onto Innovation is up 206% over twelve months as AI-driven semi-inspection demand pulls the multiple higher.

Onto Innovation designs metrology and inspection tools for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, $16.0B market cap, with Q2 2026 earnings due 2026-08-06.

  • Q1 revenue was $292M, up 9.5% year-over-year with sequential growth of 9.4% — the fourth consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year growth as advanced-packaging inspection demand accelerates.
  • Q1 EPS $1.42 met the $1.42 consensus (in-line), following prior surprises of -1.6%, +2.9%, and -1.6% — a durable pattern of consensus-tight results.
  • Gross margin 48.8%, operating margin 10.5%, trailing ROIC 4.1% — solid inspection-tool economics with margin room to expand.
  • Consensus models fiscal 2027 revenue $1.34B rising to $1.65B in fiscal 2028 and $1.96B in fiscal 2029, EPS $7.20 to $9.76 to $12.08 — the 118x multiple discounts the growth arc.
  • On May 18, Onto announced a $1.1B convertible-senior-notes offering — a large capital raise providing strategic optionality.
  • The stock is up 206% over twelve months and 87% year-to-date, at 72% of the 52-week range and 43% above the 200-day — the tape confirms the AI-fab-inspection thesis.
  • A July 15 24/7 Wall St piece flagged ONTO among beneficiaries of the Trump Administration's push for more U.S. memory plants.
  • A July 11 piece included ONTO among five chip stocks riding the AI fab spending wave.

The setup is a semi-inspection leader with strong twelve-month gains against a fair-multiple discussion — August 6 tests fiscal 2028 estimate curve.

Agrees with X sentimentX posters describe ONTO's move from ~$90 to ~$307 over ten months as a leading semi-inspection AI beneficiary with a new leg targeting $400+ out of a large weekly base. Chart posters cite strong weekly-support reactions and daily-structure breaks to the upside. That aligns with the reported 206% twelve-month gain and the July 15 Trump-administration memory-plant positioning — the tape has confirmed the fundamental thesis.

What to watch: August 6 Q2 earnings — revenue growth versus the +9.5% Q1 pace, advanced-packaging metrology tool shipments, gross-margin trajectory versus the 48.8% base, and fiscal 2027 revenue guide versus the $1.34B consensus. Commentary on the $1.1B convertible-notes use-of-proceeds and any M&A speculation is a separate qualitative signal.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 Q2 2026 earnings; advanced-packaging tool shipments and fiscal 2027 guide drive the print.

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-08

Onto Innovation has moved from around $90 to roughly $307 over ten months and is being called a leading semi-inspection AI beneficiary, with a new leg targeting $400+ out of a large weekly base. Chart posters describe a strong reaction from weekly support, a daily structure break to the upside, and traders looking to stay bullish above the 50-SMA on any retest of the prior top, with IBD/Nasdaq media coverage adding attention.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ONTO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes optical metrology and inspection equipment for semiconductor advanced packaging and wafer production yield control.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ONTO.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — structural AI capex engine unchanged: hyperscaler Blackwell allocation stays tight through 2H26 and HBM3e pricing holds as LLM context-window expansion drives 5-8x per-server memory demand uplift.

What this means for $ONTO

Partial — Makes optical metrology and inspection equipment for semiconductor advanced packaging and wafer production yield control; this segment overlaps with the AI capex and HBM/compute demand cycle but is not the dominant revenue driver.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+54.2%YTD
+96.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
118.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
4.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
10.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
12.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
5.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
48.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$1.42$1.420.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$1.26$1.28-1.6%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.92$0.89+2.9%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$1.25$1.27-1.6%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $1.68

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$291.9M+9.5%50.1%13.3%$0.68$22.7M
Q4 FY25$266.9M+1.1%46.4%5.2%$0.21$89.9M
Q3 FY25$218.2M-13.5%50.7%10.9%$0.58$82.0M
Q2 FY25$253.6M+4.7%48.2%12.7%$0.69$44.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$1.3B$1.3B – $1.4B$7.20$6.83 – $7.468
FY28$1.7B$1.5B – $1.8B$9.76$8.50 – $10.978
FY29$2.0B$2.0B – $2.0B$12.08$11.76 – $12.345
FY30$2.3B$2.2B – $2.5B$14.38$13.42 – $15.483
FY31$2.8B$2.6B – $2.9B$17.64$16.48 – $19.002

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.65%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+31.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 49.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.545-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 26 other (12 awards · 10 inkinds · 4 exempts) in window

See when $ONTO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementMay 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) filed an 8-K on May 18, 2026 disclosing a material definitive agreement (Item 1.01), new financial obligation (Item 2.03), unregistered equity sales (Item 3.02), and other events (Item 8.01). Onto Innovation is a Wilmington, Massachusetts-based semiconductor process control equipment company. The combination of a new agreement, new debt, and private equity sale strongly suggests a significant acquisition financing or PIPE transaction; this is a material event for ONTO shareholders.

8-KShareholder voteMay 208-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) filed a second 8-K on May 20, 2026 disclosing annual shareholder meeting vote results (Item 5.07), separate from its May 18 multi-item filing disclosing the material agreement and PIPE. Onto Innovation is a Wilmington, Massachusetts-based semiconductor process control equipment company. Annual meeting results are routine governance disclosures.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 218-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

ONTO entered into a purchase agreement (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-21). Size: approximately $710 million. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

+ 13 other (3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 13Gs · 2 proxys · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Can Onto Innovation Extend Its Winning Streak in Advanced Nodes Business?zacks.com·18h agoThe Trump Administration Presses for More Memory Plants in America: These 3 Stocks Could Be Winners247wallst.com·2d agoOnto Innovation vs. Camtek: Which Inspection Stock is a Smarter Buy?zacks.com·3d agoIs Onto Innovation Gaining From Rising AI Semiconductor Demand?zacks.com·4d agoThese 5 Chip Stocks Are Riding the AI Fab Spending Wave247wallst.com·6d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureSemiconductor OnshoringAdvanced Packaging & AI Interconnect

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ONTO on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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