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OLOLLI

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

$OLLI·$5.5B·Discount Stores·Consumer Defensive
$93.18-2.5%YTD-19.4%1Y-24.3%
Price updated 2d ago·X counts updated 7d ago
OLOLLI
$OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
$93.18-2.49%48 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $OLLI on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

48X posts · last 7 days
Oct 1Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $OLLI's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 55% of tracked names.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $OLLI — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Discount retailer compounding Q2 revenue +9% at 14.6% operating margin while shares derated 20% YTD on consumer-discretionary rotation.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet runs the US closeout-and-overstock format, so revenue growth is a function of new-store openings plus comp sales on a treasure-hunt merchandise mix.

  • Q2 FY26 revenue $741.3M, +9.1% YoY with 14.6% operating margin and $108M FCF — margin recovered from Q1 11.5% back to the mid-teens
  • TTM: 16x earnings, 1.6x sales, 15% ROE, 41% gross margin, 13% operating margin, debt-to-equity 0.38 — defensive-retail economics intact
  • 2026 estimates: $2.65B revenue, $3.87 EPS; 2027 $2.93B, $4.61 EPS — ~11% revenue growth, ~19% EPS growth
  • YTD -20%, trailing-12m -31% — multiple compressed back toward 'once-in-a-decade valuation' framing in sell-side notes
  • Insider activity thin; Engineers Gate added a 21,467-share position

The fundamental line is doing exactly what defensive-retail investors would want (stable 13-15% operating margin, consistent HSD-LDD growth, FCF generation), while the equity has been treated like a cyclical in the recent rotation — the gap between the operating story and the multiple is where the stall framing comes from.

What to watch: Dec 8 Q3 earnings and holiday-season commentary — whether comps and new-store productivity hold the operating-margin line or soften through the holiday window.

On the calendar: 2026-12-08 Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $OLLI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Deep-discount closeout retailer with ~500 US stores selling brand-name overstock goods at 20–70% below regular retail prices.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Discount Stores sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $OLLI.

Discount Stores · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — Consumer value-seeking is structurally shifting share to discount and warehouse formats.

What this means for $OLLI

Partial — Deep-discount closeout retailer with ~500 US stores selling brand-name overstock goods at 20–70% below regular retail prices.

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
-4.3%YTD
+3.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
16.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
12.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.6Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
14.6%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
40.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Sep 2, 2026$1.42$1.12+26.8%
Q1 2026Jun 3, 2026$0.91$0.87+4.6%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$1.39$1.38+0.7%
Q3 2025Dec 9, 2025$0.75$0.74+1.4%
Next earningsTue, Dec 8·consensus EPS $0.76

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$741.3M+9.1%43.5%14.6%$1.42$108.1M
Q1 FY26$658.9M+14.2%41.9%11.5%$0.93$20.0M
Q4 FY25$779.3M+16.8%36.0%14.3%$1.40$164.4M
Q3 FY25$613.6M+18.6%41.3%10.2%$0.75$-26.0M

Forward consensus

6-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$2.7B$2.6B – $2.7B$3.87$3.83 – $3.929
FY27$2.9B$2.9B – $3.0B$4.61$4.58 – $4.6211
FY28$3.3B$3.2B – $3.3B$4.95$4.77 – $5.0711
FY29$3.6B$3.6B – $3.6B$5.45$5.39 – $5.545
FY30$3.9B$3.9B – $4.0B$0.00$0.00 – $0.002
FY31$4.2B$4.2B – $4.3B$0.00$0.00 – $0.001

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.9×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.47%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+16.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+5.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 59.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.505-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 3 other (1 exempt · 1 inkind · 1 gift) in window

See when $OLLI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteJun 158-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
3New insider — initial holdingsJun 33
+ 15 other (7 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

OLLI's New $500M Buyback Authorization Signals Cash Flow Confidencezacks.com·5d agoOllie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Just Reclaimed the 200-Day Moving Averagezacks.com·5d agoOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Announces $500 Million Share Repurchase Authorizationglobenewswire.com·6d agoCritical Survey: Seven and I (OTCMKTS:SVNDY) vs. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ:OLLI)defenseworld.net·7d agoWhy Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Termzacks.com·11d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $OLLI on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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