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DLDLTR

Dollar Tree, Inc.

$DLTR·$24B·Discount Stores·Consumer Defensive
$124.91+3.3%YTD+1.8%1Y+15.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-04: 3 posts2026-07-05: 8 posts2026-07-06: 17 posts2026-07-07: 39 posts2026-07-08: 84 posts2026-07-09: 104 posts2026-07-10: 135 posts390
Price updated 13h ago·X counts updated 13h ago
DLDLTR
$DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.
$124.91+3.30%390 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $DLTR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-11

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Dollar Tree's turnaround is landing — $2.5B buyback authorized after Mantle Ridge exits its activist stake.

Dollar Tree runs the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar discount-retail banners across North America. The current chapter is a genuine turnaround story with two specific structural signals landing in the same window: activist Mantle Ridge fully exiting, and the board authorizing a $2.5B buyback.

  • The Mantle Ridge exit is a substantial event: activist fund Mantle Ridge disposed of roughly $1.8B of stock on June 24 — an activist selling out this size typically follows their strategic-plan milestones landing, which reads as "mission accomplished" rather than "I gave up."
  • The $2.5B buyback authorization is the specific capital-return signal: at a $24B market cap, that's roughly 10% of shares outstanding — a significant management vote of confidence in the turnaround's trajectory and the current share price.
  • Fundamentals confirm the trajectory: revenue grew 7% year-over-year last quarter to $4.98B at a 37% gross margin and 10% operating margin, with the last EPS print beating consensus by 14% — a real, quantitative turn from the pre-activist state.
  • Valuation is doing sensible work: at 19.5x TTM earnings and 1.2x sales with an 11% ROIC and 6% free-cash-flow yield — a mid-teens multiple that reflects turnaround progress without demanding perfection.

The September 2 earnings is far but the tape has already re-rated. Comparable-store-sales growth confirmation with visible Family Dollar operating-margin expansion keeps the compounder framing intact and lets the buyback authorization compound the tape. Comp weakness or a Family Dollar-specific margin wobble turns the current cooling into a re-test of the pre-buyback levels — after Mantle Ridge's exit, the tape has less activist air cover than it did.

What to watch: September 2 Q2 earnings — comparable-store-sales growth confirmation with visible Family Dollar margin expansion keeps the compounder framing intact and lets the $2.5B buyback compound the tape; comp weakness or Family Dollar margin wobble turns cooling into a re-test of pre-buyback levels, with less activist air cover than before.

On the calendar: 2026-09-02 — Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a substantial presence with 8,061 retail locations across its Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, supported by 15 distribution centers in the U.S. and an additional two in Canada. Conversely, the Family Dollar segment functions as a general merchandise discount chain with varying prices. Its inventory is comprehensive, covering a wide array of consumable goods such as groceries, beverages, tobacco, personal care and health products, household chemicals, paper products, hardware, automotive accessories, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies. Additionally, the segment provides home products, which include housewares, home décor, giftware, and domestics like bedding and towels. Shoppers can also find apparel and accessories, encompassing clothing, fashion items, and footwear. Seasonal and electronics merchandise, ranging from holiday-specific goods to pre-paid cellular phones and services, along with stationery, school supplies, and toys, are also key offerings. As of January 29, 2022, the Family Dollar brand operated 8,016 stores and was supported by 11 distribution centers. Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree, Inc. is headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Discount Stores sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $DLTR.

Discount Stores · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — Consumer trade-down is extending into 2026 as tariff pass-through and sticky services inflation keep value-format retailers gaining wallet share from..

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
+2.7%YTD
+8.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
10.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
6.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
35.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
36.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
2.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 28, 2026$1.74$1.53+13.7%
Q4 2025Mar 16, 2026$2.56$2.53+1.2%
Q3 2025Dec 3, 2025$1.21$1.09+11.0%
Q2 2025Sep 3, 2025$0.77$0.42+84.8%
Next earningsWed, Sep 2·consensus EPS $1.11

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$5.0B+7.2%36.9%9.5%$1.76$391.1M
Q4 FY25$5.5B+9.0%39.2%12.3%$2.54$969.8M
Q3 FY25$4.8B-37.2%35.9%6.7%$1.20$-182.7M
Q2 FY25$4.6B-38.1%34.4%4.9%$0.91$380.1M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 16 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY27$20.6B$20.6B – $20.7B$6.97$6.77 – $7.1516
FY28$21.9B$21.6B – $22.1B$7.69$7.32 – $8.2016
FY29$23.1B$23.1B – $23.1B$8.49$7.07 – $9.3711
FY30$24.2B$23.9B – $24.4B$8.88$8.75 – $8.945
FY31$25.0B$24.7B – $25.2B$7.78$7.67 – $7.845

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.70%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+17.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+12.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 191.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.655-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 24Ridge Lp MantleDirector by deputization12.8M sh$1.8B
+ 34 other (21 awards · 10 inkinds · 2 conversions · 1 other) in window

See when $DLTR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Dollar Tree's Turnaround Is Starting to Take Rootmarketbeat.com·2d agoWednesday's Morning Movers: META's Super Sensing AI Glasses, DLTR & RH Upgradesyoutube.com·3d agoDollar Tree, Inc. Announces $2.5 Billion Share Repurchase Authorizationgurufocus.com·9d agoDollar Tree, Inc. Announces $2.5 Billion Share Repurchase Authorizationbusinesswire.com·9d ago4 Must-Buy Retail Stocks as Lower Gas Prices Boost Consumer Confidencezacks.com·10d ago

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