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COCOST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

$COST·$406B·Discount Stores·Consumer Defensive
$916.25+0.4%YTD+6.4%1Y-5.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-04: 36 posts2026-07-05: 99 posts2026-07-06: 173 posts2026-07-07: 194 posts2026-07-08: 362 posts2026-07-09: 474 posts2026-07-10: 393 posts1,739+58%
Price updated 1d ago·X counts updated 1d ago
COCOST
$COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation
$916.25+0.36%1.7k posts+58%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COST, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-10

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Costco just fell 4% on a good sales report — the business isn't broken, but a 48x multiple leaves no room for a single quarterly hiccup like today's small Q3 miss.

Costco runs the biggest membership-warehouse business in the world — 900+ warehouses, 81M paid members, and one of the most reliable comp-store sales machines in retail. The stock rarely gets cheap, and it's now down to 27% of the 52-week range on today's June-sales reaction.

Where it stands:

  • The core is still working: June net sales grew 10.6% YoY to $29.2B, US comparable sales rose 10.6%, and Q3 revenue grew 12% YoY to $70.5B — this is not a franchise deteriorating, this is a franchise compounding through a soft consumer.
  • Membership economics remain the moat: $5.3B of membership fees on 81M paid members translates almost entirely to operating profit — the recurring-revenue base is why Costco earns a software-like multiple.
  • Q3 earnings were the trigger: EPS came in at $4.93 vs $4.94 expected — a first slight miss in a long streak — and JPMorgan cut its price target to $1,100 with "little room for error" framing. At 48x TTM P/E and 29x EV/EBITDA, that language is the whole tape today.
  • Fresh growth vectors are visible: standalone gas-station openings (Mission Viejo replacing a former Bed Bath & Beyond), a new Kirkland's private-label energy drink line hitting Celsius, and continued international unit growth are still adding to the compounding rate.
  • Insider tape is quiet: director Ken Denman's small $847K sale on June 23 is the only recent event — no cluster on either side, and the routine $1.47/share dividend just declared.

September 24 fiscal-Q4 earnings is the tape-holder — comp reacceleration and margin discipline restart the compounding narrative and reprice off the lows; another slight miss or a soft membership-renewal commentary keeps the multiple compressed for the rest of the calendar year.

Agrees with X sentimentX is bullish on the June net sales +10.6% YoY, US comp sales +10.6%, and Kirkland's energy drink threatening Celsius — I agree the underlying compounding is intact and the risk we both share is that 48x TTM P/E leaves no room for a second consecutive slight miss on the September 24 print.

What to watch: September 24 fiscal-Q4 earnings — comp reacceleration and margin discipline restart the compounding narrative and reprice off the lows; another slight miss or a soft membership-renewal comment keeps the multiple compressed for the rest of the year.

On the calendar: 2026-09-24 — Q4 FY26 earnings

beta missing

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠66 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-11 · top-engagement diverged

Costco chatter is split. Bulls highlight June net sales of $29.24B up 10.6% YoY, US comparable sales +10.6%, digitally-enabled sales +20.9%, 12% average dividend hike, an 81M paid-member base with $5.3B in FY25 membership fees, and the 4-cents-of-margin culture. Bears note the stock at a six-month low, comps of 8.8% versus 12.5% in May, JPMorgan trimming its PT to $1,100, COST/QQQ ratio at a 52-week low, and a 30x P/OCF at 10% CAGR. Top and representative posts diverge directionally.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Membership-based warehouse retailer whose ~$5B in annual membership fees drive high-margin recurring revenue atop a high-volume merchandise business.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Discount Stores sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COST.

Discount Stores · Consumer Defensive

No material change from last week — Consumer trade-down is extending into 2026 as tariff pass-through and sticky services inflation keep value-format retailers gaining wallet share from..

What this means for $COST

Direct beneficiary — Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom.

Top industry ETF

$XRTSPDR S&P Retail ETF
+2.7%YTD
+8.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
48.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
19.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
3.8%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
28.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
12.9%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 28, 2026$4.93$4.94-0.2%
Q4 2025Mar 5, 2026$4.58$4.55+0.7%
Q3 2025Dec 11, 2025$4.34$4.27+1.6%
Q2 2025Sep 25, 2025$5.87$5.80+1.2%
Next earningsThu, Sep 24·consensus EPS $6.56

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q3 FY26$70.5B+11.6%12.8%4.0%$4.94$2.0B
Q2 FY26$69.6B+9.2%12.8%3.7%$4.58$1.7B
Q1 FY26$67.3B+8.3%13.1%3.7%$4.51$3.2B
Q4 FY25$86.2B+8.1%12.9%3.9%$5.88$1.9B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 25 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$301.9B$299.7B – $305.1B$20.53$20.16 – $20.7525
FY27$326.8B$319.0B – $333.6B$22.67$21.90 – $23.6224
FY28$350.9B$350.3B – $351.5B$24.94$23.70 – $26.7919
FY29$374.0B$366.9B – $379.9B$27.18$26.51 – $27.749
FY30$394.5B$387.0B – $400.8B$28.50$27.79 – $29.0815

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.29%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.2%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 23Kenneth D DenmanDirector885 sh$847KSellApr 1Caton FratesPresident700 sh$695KSellMar 9Claudine AdamoPresident730 sh$732KSellJan 21Teresa A. JonesPresident850 sh$838KSellJan 16Susan L DeckerDirector458 sh$437KSellJan 14James C KlauerPresident1.5K sh$1.4M
+ 5 other (2 gifts · 1 discretionary · 1 inkind · 1 award) in window

See when $COST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 3S-3ASR
AI summary

COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION (COST) filed an automatic shelf registration statement (S-3ASR) with the SEC. The registration establishes a shelf to offer debt securities from time to time. As an S-3ASR (automatic shelf), this registration is immediately effective upon filing — a privilege reserved for well-known seasoned issuers (WKSIs) with large public floats. The shelf registration does not commit the company to any specific offering but provides flexible capital markets access for future transactions.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMay 153/A
AI summary

Form filed by More than One Reporting Person Table I - Non-De filed a Form 3/A (amended) for COST on 2026-05-15, initiating required Section 16 reporting. Role: of Reporting Person. Beneficial ownership covers 578 shares. Form 3 is a mandatory administrative filing upon first becoming an insider or 10%+ holder; it does not reflect a purchase or sale event.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 113
8-KShareholder voteJan 218-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote · Item 8.01: Other event
3New insider — initial holdingsJan 203
+ 10 other (2 routine 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Costco Could Be Poised for Major Gains Before 2030. Here Is Why Now May Be the Time to Buy.fool.com·18h agoCostco Has Held Its Hot Dog at $1.50 for Decades. Social Security Tax Thresholds Frozen Since 1984 Haven’t Been So Kind to Retirees.247wallst.com·20h agoUS court pauses union lawsuit against Trump consumer watchdogreuters.com·1d agoWhy Is Amazon so Much Cheaper Than Walmart and Costco? This Is the Only Answer I Can Think of.fool.com·1d agoHere's Why Costco (COST) is a Strong Growth Stockzacks.com·2d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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