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TickerTalks›$MTSI
MTMTSI

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 22% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (60 mentions/wk)
$MTSI·$24B·Semiconductors·Technology
$256.50-2.8%YTD+42.3%1Y+101.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 5 posts2026-08-23: 4 posts60+2%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 9d ago
MTMTSI
$MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
$256.50-2.78%60 posts+2%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MTSI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

MACOM — analog semi in the AI-photonics supply-crunch cohort with Q1 revenue +22%, four straight beats, and customers with 'urgent' laser needs.

MACOM Technology Solutions makes analog semiconductor solutions for high-performance networks — specifically indium phosphide (InP) DFB lasers used in AI-datacenter optical interconnects. The equity is up 98% T12M as the AI-photonics supply-crunch narrative caught, though the tape has coiled recently.

  • The operating story is unambiguously strong: Q1 revenue grew 22.5% year-over-year to $289M, prior quarters ran 24-32%, gross margins expanded to 57%, and operating margins hit 18% — the last three EPS prints beat consensus by 2-4%, with the FY27 EPS estimate of $2+ (implied) supporting a durable multiple expansion.
  • The AI-photonics supply-crunch is specific: Q2 commentary flagged customer urgency due to general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers, validating structural AI-photonics bottlenecks — that's the specific product-mix advantage supporting the 'MACOM in the AAOI/LITE/COHR/SIVE cohort' framing.
  • The valuation is stretched but earned: at 146x trailing earnings and 24.5x sales, MTSI is priced as an AI-cycle winner — the GF Value $187 versus $265 tape suggests genuine fair-value pressure, but the specific InP-laser-crunch positioning justifies part of the premium.
  • Insider tape shows one large sale (John Kober $2.4M at $326 on Aug 19) — that's meaningful trim into strength at a price well above the current tape, but for a $24B market cap it's small proportionally; the coil at 12% below the 50-day reflects the post-Kober-sale digestion.

The path if the run resumes is a Nov 5 Q3 print showing revenue continuing above +20% year-over-year plus specific commentary on AI-photonics-related product demand — the tape breaks the coil upward on the supply-crunch thesis catching. What breaks the setup is a Q3 with margin compression or a specific customer inventory-digestion signal; that's when a stock 12% below the 50-day extends the drop toward the 200-day support 1% below spot.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — Q2 commentary flagging customer urgency due to general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers validating structural AI-photonics bottlenecks, framed alongside AAOI/LITE/COHR/SIVE cohort as beneficiaries of AI infrastructure supply crunch, and read as positive read-through for laser/interconnect suppliers — captures the coiled-supply-crunch setup exactly.

What to watch: The Nov 5 Q3 print — revenue continuing above +20% YoY plus specific commentary on AI-photonics-related product demand breaks the coil upward; margin compression or a customer inventory-digestion signal is what extends the drop.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-14

MACOM is bullish. Q2 commentary flagged customer urgency due to general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers, validating structural AI-photonics bottlenecks. Framed alongside AAOI/LITE/COHR/SIVE cohort as beneficiaries of AI infrastructure supply crunch. Read as positive read-through for laser/interconnect suppliers.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MTSI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Designs analog semiconductor ICs for RF, microwave, and lightwave applications in telecom infrastructure, defense, and data centers.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MTSI.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $MTSI

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+94.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
146.7How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
16.0%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
0.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
24.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
13.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
55.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$1.40$1.35+3.7%
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$1.09$1.07+1.9%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$1.02$0.99+3.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.94$0.93+1.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $2.00

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$289.0M+22.5%56.9%17.6%$0.62$65.5M
Q1 FY26$271.6M+24.5%55.9%15.9%$0.65$30.0M
Q4 FY25$261.2M+30.1%54.6%15.2%$0.61$49.4M
Q3 FY25$252.1M+32.3%53.7%14.9%$0.49$22.8M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.3B$1.2B – $1.3B$5.03$4.67 – $5.1510
FY27$1.6B$1.5B – $1.7B$6.93$5.72 – $7.449
FY28$1.9B$1.8B – $2.0B$8.44$8.11 – $8.773
FY29$2.3B$2.2B – $2.4B$10.52$10.11 – $10.922

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.48%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-11.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+0.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 69.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17John KoberCFO7.4K sh$2.4MSellJun 25Hwang Donghyun ThomasSVP, Global Sales2.6K sh$1.0MSellMay 29Stephen G DalyCEO15.8K sh$5.8MSellMay 18John KoberCFO5.7K sh$2.0MSellMay 18Hwang Donghyun ThomasSVP, Global Sales600 sh$213KSellMay 14Peter Y ChungDirector43.3K sh$16.4MSellMay 13Charles R BlandDirector800 sh$304KSellMay 11Geoffrey G RibarDirector1.6K sh$587KSellApr 30Hwang Donghyun ThomasSVP, Global Sales3.7K sh$1.0M
+ 11 other (8 awards · 3 gifts) in window

See when $MTSI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KShareholder voteMar 98-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 12 other (7 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Wall Street Analysts Predict a 46.99% Upside in M/A-Com (MTSI): Here's What You Should Knowzacks.com·1d agoA Look at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) After 3.4% Decline -- GF Value $187.64 vs Price $257.43gurufocus.com·8d agoAllworth Financial LP Takes Position in MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. $MTSIdefenseworld.net·10d agoBuy 3 Momentum Anomaly Stocks as Surging Oil Prices Rattle Marketszacks.com·13d agoHow Much Upside is Left in M/A-Com (MTSI)? Wall Street Analysts Think 28%zacks.com·19d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureDefense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 1 · last 7 days

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