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MRMRLN

Merlin, Inc.

$MRLN·$347M·Aerospace & Defense·Industrials
$3.58-0.3%1Y-65.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-14: 21 posts2026-07-15: 30 posts2026-07-16: 21 posts2026-07-17: 23 posts2026-07-18: 8 posts2026-07-19: 6 posts2026-07-20: 25 posts135+6%
Price updated 13h ago·X counts updated 12h ago
MRMRLN
$MRLNMerlin, Inc.
$3.58-0.28%135 posts+6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MRLN, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-07-20

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Autonomous-flight startup becomes the first FAA-certified operator as September lockup approaches.

Merlin Labs (via a SPAC business combination) is a leading autonomous-flight-technology developer — the first company in history to receive an approved certification basis from both FAA and New Zealand's CAA for autonomous flight. Down 65% TTM to near all-time lows, but with genuine technical differentiation.

The setup:

  • The FAA + CAA certification is genuinely transformative: reported Merlin became the first company in history to receive an approved certification basis from FAA and New Zealand's CAA for autonomous flight — this is real regulatory de-risking, and the AWACS-style optionality is meaningful for defense-and-commercial applications.
  • Analyst sponsorship is meaningful for a small cap: reported Cantor initiated coverage at Overweight with $11 target, TD Cowen kept Buy at $8 — for a $300M market cap trading near $3.88 all-time lows, these are asymmetric PTs that reflect real conviction on the certification-and-TAM thesis.
  • The September lockup expiry is a real overhang: reported the September lockup expiring creates near-term uncertainty — post-SPAC lockup expirations typically produce additional share supply into the tape, and this creates the near-term pressure that limits an immediate rerating despite the fundamental progress.

Cooling with real regulatory de-risking and near-term lockup overhang — Aug 21 is the trigger. A revenue beat plus customer-pipeline commentary and defense-adjacent deal-flow breaks the range higher; lockup-expiry supply extends the pullback below $3.50.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X read on the FAA + New Zealand CAA autonomous-flight certification, the Cantor $11 target/TD Cowen $8, and the September lockup expiring near-term overhang framing is directionally right on the setup. The 'compelling lottery ticket' framing is honest.

What to watch: Aug 21 Q2 earnings: revenue trajectory, customer-pipeline commentary, defense-adjacent deal-flow, and updated FY guide plus lockup-expiry dynamics. Lockup-expiry supply flood extends the pullback below $3.50 support.

On the calendar: 2026-08-21 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment12 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-20

Merlin Labs printed an all-time low near $3.88 the same week Cantor initiated Overweight with an $11 target, TD Cowen reiterated Buy at $8, and the company became the first to secure an FAA/CAA-approved certification basis for an autonomous flight system. Bulls highlight the $105M USSOCOM C-130J IDIQ, upcoming Oshkosh showcase and mid-August ground testing. Cautionary notes flag September lockup expiry, future capital needs and comparisons to other convertible-heavy names.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MRLN

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Builds autonomous aviation software (Merlin Pilot) enabling reduced-crew or pilotless flight for military and commercial aircraft.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Aerospace & Defense sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MRLN.

Aerospace & Defense · Industrials

No material change from last week — institutions now mark RKLB, LUNR, and RDW against SPCX's $1.

What this means for $MRLN

Neutral — Builds autonomous aviation software (Merlin Pilot) enabling reduced-crew or pilotless flight for military and commercial aircraft; limited read-through from aerospace & defense macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$ITAiShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
+6.4%YTD
+17.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-7.2How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-23.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-31.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-17.9%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
218.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
204%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
-63.7%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-0.0Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 15, 2026$-0.37$-0.10-270.0%
Q1 2026May 14, 2026$-1.27$-0.10-1170.0%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$-1.93——
Next earningsFri, Aug 21·consensus EPS $-0.18

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.0M+16.2%-63.7%-2696%$-1.27$-25.8M
Q4 FY25$0———$0.04—
Q3 FY25$0———$0.00—
Q2 FY25$0———$0.07—

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 2 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$18.7M$16.1M – $22.1M-$1.50-$2.22 – -$0.772
FY27$40.7M$35.1M – $48.1M-$0.89-$0.90 – -$0.872
FY28$59.8M$51.6M – $70.6M-$1.01-$1.25 – -$0.831
FY29$110.8M$95.5M – $130.8M-$0.84-$1.04 – -$0.691
FY30$139.5M$120.3M – $164.7M-$0.72-$0.89 – -$0.591

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-43.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 28.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 11 other (11 awards) in window

See when $MRLN insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsMay 83
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of MRLN securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at MRLN.

S-1Initial registrationMay 6S-1
AI summary

MRLN (MRLN) filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. An S-1 is the standard full registration statement, typically used by companies going public or registering securities not eligible for the streamlined S-3 form. The registration must be reviewed and declared effective by the SEC before any securities can be sold to the public.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

MRLN (MRLN) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $80 million. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

S-1Initial registrationApr 15S-1
AI summary

MRLN (MRLN) filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC. An S-1 is the standard full registration statement, typically used by companies going public or registering securities not eligible for the streamlined S-3 form. The registration must be reviewed and declared effective by the SEC before any securities can be sold to the public.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 133
AI summary

A new insider filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of MRLN securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at MRLN.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 263
SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Mar 23SC 13D
8-KMaterial agreementMar 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.02: Unregistered equity sale · Item 3.03 · Item 4.01 · Item 5.01: Change in control · Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 5.06 · Item 8.01: Other event
+ 47 other (17 13Gs · 10 3s · 3 EFFECTs · 3 S-4/As) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Merlin Completes Autonomous Landing at EAA AirVenture Oshkoshglobenewswire.com·1d agoElroy Air to Become Publicly Traded Company via Business Combination with Inflection Point-led SPACgurufocus.com·25d agoMerlin: Another De-Risking Event Could Unlock Meaningful Upsideseekingalpha.com·32d agoMerlin Stock Soars On Defense Milestone, But IPO Wreckage Is Hard To Ignorebenzinga.com·46d agoMerlin Clears Critical Design Review, Stock Rockets Higherbenzinga.com·46d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Defense & Drones

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Voices on X · top 11 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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