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MAMAT

Mattel, Inc.

$MAT·$4.9B·Leisure·Consumer Cyclical
$17.20-0.7%YTD-16.0%1Y-5.0%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
MAMAT
$MATMattel, Inc.
$17.20-0.69%201 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $MAT on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

201X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $MAT's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $MAT — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Barbie-maker up 18.8% on the day after Authentic Brands Group takeover-interest reports with Q2 revenue +10% YoY and -25% YTD.

Mattel runs the global toy franchise anchored by Barbie, Hot Wheels, UNO, Fisher-Price and growing media/entertainment platforms, so revenue scales with core-franchise refresh, media-adaptation flow (Barbie movie, Hot Wheels film) and licensing.

  • Q2 FY26 revenue $1.13B, +10.5% YoY with 1.0% operating margin and EPS -$0.06 (Q2 is a seasonal trough); Q4 FY25 was $1.77B at 9.1% margin — the business is seasonal, Q4-weighted
  • TTM: 11x earnings, 0.80x sales, 20% ROE, 47% gross margin, 8.5% operating margin, FCF yield 14.3%, debt-to-equity 1.37
  • 2026 estimates: $5.67B revenue, $1.31 EPS; 2027 $6.00B, $1.58 EPS — modeling MSD-HSD revenue growth and EPS +21%
  • YTD -25%, trailing-12m -13% at $15.04 against a $4.37B market cap (plus the +18.8% day pop)
  • CEO transition flagged alongside Condé Nast and merged Paramount-Warner Bros
  • Multiple reports of Authentic Brands Group takeover interest — the catalyst driving the +18.8% day

The operating line is a seasonal franchise business holding mid-single-digit growth with Q4 the earnings-concentration quarter. The Authentic Brands takeover interest is the current trading catalyst — the thesis is now binary on whether a definitive-offer materializes.

What to watch: Oct 27 Q3 earnings and any Authentic Brands definitive-offer announcement — whether the takeover interest converts into a defined bid or whether standalone fundamentals resume as the primary driver.

On the calendar: 2026-10-27 Q3 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $MAT

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Mattel, Inc. functions as a worldwide children's entertainment corporation, primarily engaged in the design and production of a diverse range of toys and consumer goods. The company's operations are segmented into North America, International, and the American Girl brand. Its extensive product offerings include dolls and accessories, alongside related content, gaming, and lifestyle merchandise for children, marketed under popular labels such as Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, Polly Pocket, Spirit, and Enchantimals; the American Girl brand specifically also provides dolls complemented by books. Additionally, Mattel manufactures die-cast vehicles, track systems, playsets, and accessories that appeal to both children and collectors, prominently featuring brands like Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart. For the infant, toddler, and preschool demographics, the company delivers content, toys, live events, and various lifestyle products through well-known brands including Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends, Power Wheels, and Fireman Sam. Furthermore, Mattel offers action figures, building sets, and games under its proprietary brands such as Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Lightyear, Jurassic World, WWE, and Star Wars, while also producing items under licenses from significant partners like Disney, NBCUniversal, WWE, Microsoft, Nickelodeon, Warner Bros, and Sanrio. The company's products are distributed directly to consumers via its catalogs, websites, and proprietary retail outlets, as well as indirectly through a wide array of retailers including discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail points, alongside wholesalers, agents, and distributors. Founded in 1945, Mattel, Inc. is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Leisure sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MAT.

Leisure · Consumer Cyclical

No material change from last week — Consumer leisure spending is bifurcated by income: premium outdoor brands and resort-style fitness clubs hold firm while mid-income dining and entertainment venues face traffic softness.

Industry benchmark

7-name peer basket
+10.0%YTD
+11.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
11.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
7.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
8.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
14.3%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
19.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
47.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 4, 2026$0.01$0.04-74.8%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$-0.20$-0.24+16.7%
Q4 2025Feb 10, 2026$0.39$0.53-26.4%
Q3 2025Oct 21, 2025$0.89$1.05-15.2%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.94

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$1.1B+10.5%48.2%1.0%$-0.06$-48.0M
Q1 FY26$862.2M+4.3%44.1%-9.8%$0.21$-88.1M
Q4 FY25$1.8B+7.3%46.0%9.1%$0.35$739.5M
Q3 FY25$1.7B-5.9%50.0%21.9%$0.85$23.1M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 10 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.7B$5.6B – $5.7B$1.30$1.26 – $1.3410
FY27$6.0B$5.7B – $6.2B$1.58$1.39 – $1.6810
FY28$6.2B$5.9B – $6.4B$1.80$1.69 – $1.916
FY29$6.4B$6.2B – $6.6B$1.87$1.78 – $1.924
FY30$6.6B$6.4B – $6.8B$1.98$1.89 – $2.033

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.48%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+17.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+9.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 231.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.705-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 31Isaias Zanatta Roberto JacoboEVP & Chief Supply Chain Offr39.1K sh$587K
+ 31 other (12 exempts · 11 awards · 8 inkinds) in window

See when $MAT insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeOct 148-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
8-KOfficer or director changeSep 308-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
3New insider — initial holdingsAug 43
8-KOfficer or director changeJul 318-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
8-KOfficer or director changeJun 28-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
+ 11 other (4 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 11-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Mattel Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call Datebusinesswire.com·2d agoLongleaf Partners Global Fund Q3 2026 Portfolio Reviewseekingalpha.com·2d agoLongleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund Q3 2026 Portfolio Reviewseekingalpha.com·3d agoLongleaf Partners Fund Q3 2026 Portfolio Reviewseekingalpha.com·3d agoMattel (MAT) to Report Q3 Results: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growthzacks.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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