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LYLYSCF

Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 147% YoY at strong marginsQuiet on X (0 mentions/wk)
$LYSCF·$11B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$11.29-1.5%1Y+20.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
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Price updated 8h ago
LYLYSCF
$LYSCFLynas Rare Earths Limited
$11.29-1.48%0 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LYSCF, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-28

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

The only scaled rare earth separator outside China — revenue up 147%, priced at 72x on a strategic-scarcity thesis.

Lynas mines rare earths at Mount Weld in Western Australia and processes them in Malaysia and Australia, and its strategic significance is that it is the only substantial producer of separated rare earths outside Chinese control. That positioning is the entire investment case. Fiscal Q4 revenue of A$563.5M grew 147% YoY, following 76.1% in the prior half, reversing declines of 18.2% and 31.3% a year earlier. Margins improved sharply — gross margin to 39.7% from 26.7% and operating margin to 28.4% from 1.3%. Free cash flow turned positive at A$79-88M after outflows of A$109-217M. Trailing figures remain stretched: 71.8x earnings, 16.4x sales and 40.6x EV/EBITDA on 5.0% ROIC and 6.5% ROE, though leverage is minimal at 0.10x. All four recent results missed estimates, by 14.6%, 3.1%, 93.5% and 79.4% — the sell side has consistently overestimated. Fourteen analysts model revenue rising from A$976M in fiscal 2026 to A$2.53B by fiscal 2030 with EPS from A$0.23 to A$1.10, which is what a 72x multiple requires. Coverage has been substantial for an OTC listing — Forbes on heavy rare earth capacity boosting US supply chain independence, a Wall Street Journal profile of the chief executive, and a Seeking Alpha piece on scarcity converting into contracted cash flow. The risk is straightforward: rare earth prices are heavily influenced by Chinese export and production policy, which can compress them at will.

Differs from X sentimentNo X sentiment snapshot is available for this OTC symbol, though press coverage is unusually strong — Forbes and the Wall Street Journal both covering the strategic supply-chain angle. That framing is about geopolitics rather than the four consecutive earnings misses.

What to watch: Neodymium-praseodymium pricing, which Chinese production and export policy heavily influences. Progress on the US heavy rare earth separation facility and any government offtake or price-floor arrangements — those would convert strategic value into contracted cash flow. Full-year results on 2027-02-19; reporting is semi-annual.

On the calendar: Half-year results, 2027-02-19

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Lynas Rare Earths Limited, alongside its subsidiary companies, manages the full spectrum of rare earth mineral operations. This encompasses everything from discovering and developing deposits to the extraction and refining of these vital materials, with a primary operational focus in Australia and Malaysia. A significant asset for the company is its stake in Western Australia's Mount Weld project. Their product portfolio features essential rare earth elements like neodymium, praseodymium, lanthanum, and cerium, in addition to various mixed heavy rare earth materials. Furthermore, Lynas designs, constructs, and operates sophisticated facilities for material concentration and advanced processing. The firm also provides general corporate services. Founded in 1983 and originally named Lynas Corporation Limited, the company rebranded to Lynas Rare Earths Limited in November 2020. Its main corporate office is situated in East Perth, Australia.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LYSCF.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

Reshoring and infrastructure legislation are the structural demand pull for industrial materials; inventory destocking earlier in the cycle appears largely complete. Pricing power varies widely — commodity-linked materials face more volatility than engineered specialty products.

What this means for $LYSCF

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; Lynas Rare Earths Limited, alongside its subsidiary companies, manages the full .

Industry benchmark

17-name peer basket
+10.4%YTD
+75.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
71.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
5.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
24.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
16.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
34.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 25, 2026$0.10$0.11-14.6%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.05$0.06-3.1%
Q2 2025Aug 27, 2025$0.00$0.01-93.5%
Q4 2024Feb 23, 2025$0.00$0.02-79.4%
Next earningsFri, Feb 19·consensus EPS $0.19

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$563.5M+146.6%39.7%28.4%$0.14$79.4M
Q2 FY26$413.5M+76.1%28.2%19.5%$0.08$88.4M
Q4 FY25$302.2M-18.2%26.7%1.3%$0.00$-109.2M
Q2 FY25$254.3M-31.3%19.3%0.9%$0.01$-217.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 14 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$976.3M$915.8M – $1.2B$0.23$0.18 – $0.3014
FY27$1.7B$1.5B – $2.0B$0.63$0.49 – $0.8014
FY28$2.2B$1.8B – $2.7B$0.95$0.74 – $1.2012
FY29$2.5B$2.1B – $3.0B$1.06$0.84 – $1.359
FY30$2.5B$2.1B – $3.1B$1.10$0.87 – $1.406

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.42%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-1.8%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-4.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β0.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.ListedOTCListed on an over-the-counter market (PNK / OTCQB / OTCQX), not a major exchange. Lower disclosure requirements and thinner liquidity.

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Heavy Rare Earth Metals Plant Boosts U.S. Supply Chain Independenceforbes.com·28d agoThe Woman Who Cracked China's Grip on Rare Earthswsj.com·75d agoLynas Rare Earths: Strategic Scarcity Is Starting To Convert Into Contracted Cash Flowseekingalpha.com·78d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · last 7 days

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