TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$VALE
VAVALE

Vale S.A.

$VALE·$59B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$13.11+0.4%YTD+4.3%1Y+15.0%
Price updated 9h ago·X counts updated 8d ago
VAVALE
$VALEVale S.A.
$13.11+0.38%230 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

On X

The complete picture of $VALE on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

230X posts · last 7 days
Oct 2Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $VALE's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-09

Vale's chart is in a multi-year breakout with a $16 pivot for a run to $17.5-$20. Repeat bullish flow into strength has been detected, and management just shelved Vale Base Metals IPO plans amid Brazilian political opposition to selling critical-minerals stakes — a signal management sees option value in holding it.

Read what X is saying about $VALE

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
Free, forever. No credit card.

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $VALE — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Vale is coiled into Q3 earnings — shelved IPO plus steady iron-ore cash flow builds the setup for a $16 pivot.

Vale is the dominant Brazilian iron-ore miner with growing base-metals exposure. The 2026 story is less about the iron-ore cycle and more about capital allocation — specifically shelving the Vale Base Metals IPO amid Brazilian political opposition, which signals management sees option value in holding the segment.

  • The P&L is modestly growing: Q2 revenue grew 14% YoY to $9.26B at a 29% operating margin and $0.44 EPS, with trailing EPS prints missing Street estimates by 12% and 6% — small misses on a resource name where the earnings are driven by realized iron-ore price volatility more than operations.
  • The capital allocation decision is the forward story: shelving the Base Metals IPO under political pressure means Vale keeps the full copper/nickel exposure through the EV/data-center demand cycle rather than crystallizing a partial value — a bullish long-term signal, a short-term optionality cost.

At 42% of its 52-week range going into Oct 29 earnings, the chart is coiled against the $16 pivot. A clean iron-ore realized-price number plus Base Metals segment growth is the trigger for the breakout; another EPS miss or any Brazilian-politics escalation is where the move stalls.

Agrees with X sentimentThe multi-year breakout framing with the $16 pivot is a specific technical read. The shelved-IPO-as-bullish-signal interpretation is grounded on management's revealed preference for holding Base Metals.

What to watch: Oct 29 Q3 earnings — iron-ore realized price, Base Metals segment revenue, free cash flow, and dividend direction. Clean iron-ore print plus Base Metals growth is the trigger; another EPS miss is the invalidation.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dbase metals optionality

Read the AI verdict on $VALE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Brazil-based mining giant and world's largest iron ore and nickel producer, critical for steelmaking and EV battery materials.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VALE.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout remains the structural driver: MP Materials trades on Beijing's forced divestiture of Chinese shareholder, reinforcing supply-chain-security thesis.

What this means for $VALE

Partial — Brazil-based mining giant and world's largest iron ore and nickel producer, critical for steelmaking and EV battery materials.

Industry benchmark

16-name peer basket
-9.3%YTD
-35.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
26.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
7.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
34.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.36$0.41-12.2%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$0.44$0.47-6.4%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$-0.90$0.57-257.9%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.63$0.49+28.6%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.40

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$9.3B+14.1%33.0%28.8%$0.44$699.9M
Q4 FY25$11.1B+15.2%36.9%26.3%$-0.91$723.0M
Q3 FY25$10.4B+8.9%36.4%32.8%$0.63$1.2B
Q2 FY25$8.8B-11.3%30.9%22.8%$0.50$732.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$41.4B$40.5B – $42.0B$1.94$1.66 – $2.5113
FY27$41.2B$40.5B – $41.7B$1.90$1.55 – $2.1313
FY28$42.3B$40.7B – $43.7B$1.92$1.83 – $2.018
FY29$44.8B$43.2B – $46.4B$2.14$2.04 – $2.2412
FY30$46.6B$44.9B – $48.2B$2.63$2.50 – $2.746

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.30%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-7.9%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-14.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.1B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.5% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.535-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 4Viana Madeira AndreDirector4 sh$60BuyAug 3Viana Madeira AndreDirector5 sh$73BuyJul 3De Souza Funo Elaine MariaAccounting Officer406 sh$6KBuyJul 2Viana Madeira AndreDirector1 sh$15BuyJul 1Viana Madeira AndreDirector1 sh$15BuyJun 17Viana Madeira AndreDirector9 sh$144BuyJun 16Quintao Lara AneliseDirector338 sh$5KSellJun 16Quintao Lara AneliseDirector249 sh$4K
+ 1 other (1 award) in window

See when $VALE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

No material 8-K / SC 13D / S-3 / 424B5 filings in the last 180 days.

+ 80 other (68 6-Ks · 8 6-K/As · 3 13Gs · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

BHP to Sell Few Nickel Assets: What's Next for Its Nickel Business?zacks.com·20h agoVALE S.A. (VALE) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Knowzacks.com·6d agoVALE S.A. (VALE) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·12d agoVale SA (VALE) Shares Fall 3.3% -- What GF Score of 77 Tells Investorsgurufocus.com·13d agoVale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) Stock Rated “Hold” by Sell-Side Analystsdefenseworld.net·13d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

More in Industrial Materials

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$MP$XPL$USAR$WWR$CRML$RIO$LAC$EMAT
Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $VALE on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport