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VAVALE

Vale S.A.

Buzzing onWhy it's trendingX mentions rising faster than the marketBacked by solid revenue growthPrice and volume picking up
$VALE·$64B·Steel·Basic Materials
$15.27-0.3%YTD+11.9%1Y+48.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-28: 10 posts2026-08-29: 5 posts2026-08-30: 4 posts2026-08-31: 23 posts2026-09-01: 12 posts2026-09-02: 36 posts2026-09-03: 21 posts111+58%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
VAVALE
$VALEVale S.A.
$15.27-0.26%111 posts+58%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $VALE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-03

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Global iron ore and copper major up over 50% in the last year, with mid-single-digit dividend yield economics and a big Brazilian legal overhang finally settling.

Vale is a diversified mining major where the operating economics are cyclically strong, the legal overhang from Mariana is progressively closing and the tape is quietly running higher on that mix.

  • Market cap is about $64B with the stock at $15.73, up 12% year-to-date and 55% over the last twelve months, so a large portion of the current price already reflects the cyclical recovery.
  • Price-to-earnings is around 20.8 with operating margin near 26.3% and free cash flow yield around 5.6%, healthy but not distressed multiples given the leverage to iron ore prices.
  • Recent quarterly revenue was $9.3B up about 14% year-over-year with earnings surprises mixed across the last four quarters, so top line is compounding even as reported EPS is lumpy.
  • The stock sits at 72% of its 52-week range, roughly 7% above the 50-day and 4% above the 200-day moving averages, on above-average volume with a low beta of 0.53 that dampens portfolio impact.

The addition of 18 more Brazilian cities to the Vale-BHP dam-collapse compensation deal continues to close out the Mariana overhang, and into Q3 earnings on 2026-10-29 the important question is whether iron ore prices and Chinese steel demand hold long enough for the current tape to earn its multiple.

What to watch: Q3 earnings on 2026-10-29 for iron ore realized prices and copper contribution, further Mariana settlement progress, and any Chinese steel demand data that would extend or break the cyclical run.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-04

$VALE chatter is bullish. Repeat bullish activity detected into strength. Bullish structure with $16 pivot — break and hold targets $17.5 → $18.6 → $20. Multiyear breakout underway. Bulls defending against random critique. Bullish setup.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $VALE

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Brazil-based mining giant and world's largest iron ore and nickel producer, critical for steelmaking and EV battery materials.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Steel sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VALE.

Steel · Basic Materials

Infrastructure spending and reshoring of domestic manufacturing are the demand anchors; tariff protection on imports supports US producer pricing. Electric arc furnace operators benefit from scrap feedstock flexibility vs integrated mills.

What this means for $VALE

Partial — upstream oil & gas exposure ties to commodity price cycle; Operating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.

Top industry ETF

$SLXVanEck Steel ETF
+26.6%YTD
+57.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
26.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
7.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
34.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.36$0.41-12.2%
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$0.44$0.47-6.4%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$-0.90$0.57-257.9%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.63$0.49+28.6%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.50

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$9.3B+14.1%33.0%28.8%$0.44$699.9M
Q4 FY25$11.1B+15.2%36.9%26.3%$-0.91$723.0M
Q3 FY25$10.4B+8.9%36.4%32.8%$0.63$1.2B
Q2 FY25$8.8B-11.3%30.9%22.8%$0.50$732.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 13 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$41.4B$40.5B – $42.0B$1.94$1.66 – $2.5113
FY27$41.2B$40.5B – $41.7B$1.90$1.55 – $2.1313
FY28$42.3B$40.7B – $43.7B$1.92$1.83 – $2.018
FY29$44.8B$43.2B – $46.4B$2.14$2.04 – $2.2412
FY30$46.6B$44.9B – $48.2B$2.63$2.50 – $2.746

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.0×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.65%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+4.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+0.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.3B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyAug 4Viana Madeira AndreDirector4 sh$60BuyAug 3Viana Madeira AndreDirector5 sh$73BuyJul 3De Souza Funo Elaine MariaAccounting Officer406 sh$6KBuyJul 2Viana Madeira AndreDirector1 sh$15BuyJul 1Viana Madeira AndreDirector1 sh$15BuyJun 17Viana Madeira AndreDirector9 sh$144BuyJun 16Quintao Lara AneliseDirector338 sh$5KSellJun 16Quintao Lara AneliseDirector249 sh$4KBuyApr 1Arap Sobrinho SamiExecutive VP Legal Officer13.0K sh$209KBuyApr 1Tallia Parenti GrazielleOfficer, Sustainability10.5K sh$169K
+ 10 other (10 awards) in window

See when $VALE insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 13
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 313/A
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 313
3/ANew insider — initial holdingsMar 193/A
+ 108 other (77 6-Ks · 17 3s · 10 6-K/As · 3 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Jim Cramer Calls This Mining Stock an Inflation Hedge “Just as Good as Crypto”247wallst.com·5d agoBank of Nova Scotia Has $3.48 Million Stake in Vale S.A. $VALEdefenseworld.net·10d agoMariana, 18 more Brazil cities join Vale-BHP dam collapse compensation dealreuters.com·15d agoCetera Investment Advisers Cuts Stock Position in Vale S.A. $VALEdefenseworld.net·28d agoHere Are Wednesday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Archer-Daniels Midland, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, e.l.f. Beauty, Humana, Transdigm, Vale, and More247wallst.com·31d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · top 5 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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