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VAVALE

Vale S.A.

$VALE·$60B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$14.25+1.1%YTD+7.5%1Y+39.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-14: 186 posts2026-07-15: 289 posts2026-07-16: 266 posts2026-07-17: 185 posts2026-07-18: 2 posts2026-07-19: 15 posts2026-07-20: 5 posts974
Price updated 4m ago·X counts updated 1d ago
VAVALE
$VALEVale S.A.
$14.25+1.06%974 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $VALE, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-21

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Vale into July 30 — the world's largest iron-ore miner with 5.6% FCF yield and 26% op margin at cheap 20x TTM P/E.

Vale is the world's largest iron-ore producer and a major nickel miner — Brazilian-domiciled with global operations, exposed to Chinese steel demand and battery-metals tailwinds. The stock is +6.4% YTD (+39% TTM) at 55% of the 52-week range, coiling into July 30 with the tape quiet ahead.

  • Business is quietly growing: Q1 revenue grew 14% YoY to $9.26B at 34% gross margin and 26% op margin — mining margins this good aren't accidental; they reflect low-cost Carajás iron-ore against holding iron-ore prices.
  • Cash generation supports the story: $700M of Q1 FCF and a 5.6% FCF yield with 20.8x TTM P/E and 8x EV/EBITDA — cheap enough for the yield to matter and the multiple to expand on a decent print.
  • China rebound optionality: Vale is a direct beneficiary of any China stimulus reflating steel demand — a specific asymmetric catalyst not currently priced in.
  • Nickel adds a battery-metals angle: base-metals franchise is meaningfully exposed to EV supply chains, though nickel has been the drag through 2026, not the tailwind.

Thursday's print resolves it: iron-ore realized prices holding above $105/ton plus base-metals cost per pound stabilizing sends this back into the $16s. A soft realized-price print or Carajás/base-metals capex-overrun commentary drops it into the low-$13s as the tape adjusts to a lower through-cycle baseline.

What to watch: July 30 Q2 earnings — iron-ore realized prices holding above $105/ton plus base-metals cost per pound stabilizing sends this back into the $16s; a soft realized-price print or Carajás/base-metals capex-overrun commentary drops it into the low-$13s.

On the calendar: 2026-07-30 — Q2 earnings

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operating globally and within Brazil, Vale S.A. is a major producer and seller of essential raw materials, including iron ore, iron ore pellets, nickel, and copper. Its operations are organized into two primary segments. The Iron Solutions segment is dedicated to the extraction and production of iron ore, pellets, and various other ferrous products, also providing crucial logistics services. Meanwhile, the Energy Transition Materials segment specializes in mining nickel, along with its valuable by-products such as gold, silver, cobalt, and other precious metals. This segment also handles copper, primarily used in construction for piping and electrical cables. Established in 1942, the company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce before officially rebranding as Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VALE.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — MP Materials and USARE (US Rare Earths) benefit from the US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout as defense and EV applications require secure non-Chinese..

Industry benchmark

12-name peer basket
-2.0%YTD
+16.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
20.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
26.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
1.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
7.7%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
34.5%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 28, 2026$0.44$0.47-6.4%
Q4 2025Feb 12, 2026$-0.90$0.57-257.9%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$0.63$0.49+28.6%
Q2 2025Jul 31, 2025$0.50$0.34+47.1%
Next earningsThu, Jul 30·consensus EPS $0.49

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$9.3B+14.1%33.0%28.8%$0.44$699.9M
Q4 FY25$11.1B+15.2%36.9%26.3%$-0.91$723.0M
Q3 FY25$10.4B+8.9%36.4%32.8%$0.63$1.2B
Q2 FY25$8.8B-11.3%30.9%22.8%$0.50$732.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 12 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$41.5B$40.6B – $42.1B$1.97$1.68 – $2.5512
FY27$41.1B$40.4B – $41.6B$1.90$1.55 – $2.1312
FY28$42.1B$40.5B – $43.5B$1.90$1.80 – $1.986
FY29$44.8B$43.1B – $46.4B$2.14$2.04 – $2.2411
FY30$46.6B$44.8B – $48.2B$2.63$2.50 – $2.746

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.55%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-9.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-3.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 4.0B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.735-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

VALE S.A. (VALE) Declines More Than Market: Some Information for Investorszacks.com·5d agoA Look at Vale SA (VALE) After 3.1% Decline -- GF Value $12.88 vs Price $14.22gurufocus.com·5d agoVALE S.A. (VALE) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Considerzacks.com·12d agoVALE S.A. (VALE) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·13d agoVALE S.A. (VALE) Sees a More Significant Dip Than Broader Market: Some Facts to Knowzacks.com·14d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

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