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LYLYSCF

Lynas Rare Earths Limited

$LYSCF·$11B·Industrial Materials·Basic Materials
$11.00+0.5%1Y+16.6%
Price updated 42d ago·X counts updated 44d ago
LYLYSCF
$LYSCFLynas Rare Earths Limited
$11.00+0.46%2 posts
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $LYSCF on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

2X posts · last 7 days
No mention history yet

AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $LYSCF — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-03

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Australia's Lynas Rare Earths — strategic-scarcity thesis converting to $563M Q4 revenue, +147% YoY.

Lynas Rare Earths is Australia's largest rare-earths miner (~$11.3B market value) — the only meaningful non-Chinese source of separated heavy rare earths at scale. Strategic-scarcity language is finally converting to hard revenue.

  • Q4 revenue $563M was up ~147% year-on-year and Q2 revenue $414M was up ~76% year-on-year — the revenue ramp is real and accelerating.
  • Q4 EPS $0.14 versus a $0.11 estimate — a small beat, but the absolute EPS is small because margin was ~28% while capex is elevated.
  • Sell-side FY26 (June-ending) model $976M revenue and $0.23 EPS; FY27 $1.70B and $0.63 EPS — analysts see a doubling of both revenue and EPS by fiscal 2027.
  • Trailing gross margin ~35% and operating margin ~25% — margin expansion is the story more than volume growth.
  • Debt-to-equity ~0.10 — very conservative leverage for a mining company, meaning most of the FCF becomes shareholder returns.
  • Free-cash-flow yield only ~1% — because capex is being pulled forward for the Malaysia and Kalgoorlie expansions.
  • US heavy rare-earth-metals plant news reinforces the supply-chain-independence narrative — Lynas is the natural partner for anyone building outside China.

Next earnings February 19, 2027. What matters is any DoD contract, Kalgoorlie ramp-up progress, and rare-earth-oxide pricing trends.

What to watch: February 19, 2027 earnings for Kalgoorlie ramp-up progress, any US Department of Defense contract announcement, and rare-earth-oxide pricing commentary.

On the calendar: FY earnings on 2027-02-19

Read the AI verdict on $LYSCF

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

World's largest rare earths producer outside China, mining in Australia and processing neodymium and praseodymium in Malaysia.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Industrial Materials sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LYSCF.

Industrial Materials · Basic Materials

No material change from last week — US domestic rare earth supply chain buildout remains the structural driver: MP Materials trades on Beijing's forced divestiture of Chinese shareholder, reinforcing supply-chain-security thesis.

What this means for $LYSCF

Partial — net interest margin and credit quality are the primary earnings drivers; Lynas Rare Earths Limited, alongside its subsidiary companies, manages the full .

Industry benchmark

17-name peer basket
-8.5%YTD
-30.8%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
71.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
5.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
24.7%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
1.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
16.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
6.5%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
34.8%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 25, 2026$0.10$0.11-14.6%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.05$0.06-3.1%
Q2 2025Aug 27, 2025$0.00$0.01-93.5%
Q4 2024Feb 25, 2025$0.00$0.02-79.5%
Next earningsFri, Feb 19·consensus EPS $0.19

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$563.5M+146.6%39.7%28.4%$0.14$79.4M
Q2 FY26$413.5M+76.1%28.2%19.5%$0.08$88.4M
Q4 FY25$302.2M-18.2%26.7%1.3%$0.00$-109.2M
Q2 FY25$254.3M-31.3%19.3%0.9%$0.01$-217.5M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 14 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$976.3M$915.8M – $1.2B$0.23$0.18 – $0.3014
FY27$1.7B$1.5B – $2.0B$0.63$0.49 – $0.8014
FY28$2.2B$1.8B – $2.7B$0.95$0.74 – $1.2012
FY29$2.5B$2.1B – $3.0B$1.06$0.84 – $1.359
FY30$2.5B$2.1B – $3.1B$1.10$0.87 – $1.406

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.38%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-3.6%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-7.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 893.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.715-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.ListedOTCListed on an over-the-counter market (PNK / OTCQB / OTCQX), not a major exchange. Lower disclosure requirements and thinner liquidity.

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Heavy Rare Earth Metals Plant Boosts U.S. Supply Chain Independenceforbes.com·74d agoThe Woman Who Cracked China's Grip on Rare Earthswsj.com·121d agoLynas Rare Earths: Strategic Scarcity Is Starting To Convert Into Contracted Cash Flowseekingalpha.com·124d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

Critical Minerals & Rare Earths

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $LYSCF on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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