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LPLPRO

Open Lending Corporation

$LPRO·$372M·Financial - Credit Services·Financial Services
$3.140.0%YTD+98.7%1Y+43.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-26: 1 posts2026-07-27: 3 posts2026-07-28: 2 posts2026-07-29: 4 posts2026-07-30: 9 posts2026-07-31: 3 posts2026-08-01: 0 posts22+60%
Price updated 3d ago·X counts updated 2d ago
LPLPRO
$LPROOpen Lending Corporation
$3.140.00%22 posts+60%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $LPRO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Hinges on a big eventEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-31

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Sold to ANV for $3.15 cash — the stock now trades where deal terms park it, not where fundamentals point.

Open Lending isn't really trading as a business anymore — it's trading as a completed cash deal. UK-based ANV closed a tender offer to take the auto-loan-insurance middleman private for $3.15 a share, and any remaining shares get squeezed out at the same price. That number, not the operating business, is what anchors the quote here.

What retail readers should keep straight:

  • The $3.15 cash price is a ~78% premium to the pre-deal 90-day average — a real premium, but the sale still crystallizes years of erosion from a much higher post-SPAC price.
  • The last reported quarter came in barely at breakeven (a fraction of a cent per share loss), and the trailing four prints were a mix of small beats and misses — a business that had stopped compounding, not one running away.
  • Two long-time private-equity holders (True Wind, Bregal) confirmed their positions right before signing, and the tender cleared — that's the door closing, not opening.

From here, the only story left is deal-mechanics: settlement of untendered shares, potential appraisal claims from holders who think $3.15 undersells the used-car cycle turning, and the shareholder-lawyer 'fairness' investigations that reliably chase every take-private. As an ongoing equity to research, there isn't much left to research.

Agrees with X sentimentCrowd is arguing arb spreads and fairness — same universe as this take: the interesting question is deal mechanics, not the underlying auto-insurance business.

What to watch: Any post-close appraisal actions, the final tender-offer settlement mechanics, and whether an overbid ever materialized (per the closing news, it did not).

On the calendar: Final merger effective-time squeeze-out of any untendered shares at $3.15 cash.

deal-closed

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-23

The entire thread is reaction to ANV's $3.15 cash buyout of Open Lending, a 78% premium to the 90-day VWAP. Arb traders see real odds of an overbid given pricing slightly through deal, while a vocal shareholder calls the price a travesty and betrayal, arguing the used-car cycle is turning, the company has net cash, and a return to the ~$40 covid high was achievable — they plan to vote no. The buyer-side view frames it as a sub-6x EBITDA steal that validates appetite in insurance intermediation.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $LPRO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Provides risk analytics and lending enablement software connecting auto lenders with near-prime borrowers via a shared risk model.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Credit Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $LPRO.

Financial - Credit Services · Financial Services

No material change from last week — AI agents transacting autonomously on behalf of consumers could decouple purchase decisions from card rails, threatening the interchange fee model.

What this means for $LPRO

Partial — Provides risk analytics and lending enablement software connecting auto lenders with near-prime borrowers via a shared risk model; partial earnings exposure to financial - credit services demand dynamics through its product portfolio.

Industry benchmark

18-name peer basket
-5.6%YTD
-11.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-68.9How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-2.8%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-7.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-0.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
4.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-7.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
77.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 7, 2026$-0.00$0.01-139.1%
Q4 2025Mar 12, 2026$0.01$0.02-50.0%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$0.03$0.01+200.0%
Q2 2025Aug 6, 2025$0.01$0.02-50.0%
Next earningsWed, Aug 5·consensus EPS $0.01

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$20.5M-16.0%76.3%-3.1%$-0.00$-546K
Q4 FY25$19.3M-134.0%76.0%3.9%$0.01$4.7M
Q3 FY25$24.2M+3.0%78.0%-31.9%$-0.06$-5.7M
Q2 FY25$25.3M-5.3%78.2%4.6%$0.01$1.4M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$101.8M$99.3M – $106.9M$0.11$0.10 – $0.115
FY27$116.8M$113.9M – $122.7M$0.17$0.17 – $0.184
FY28$123.7M$120.6M – $129.8M$0.29$0.28 – $0.311

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.99%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+15.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+63.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 95.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.205-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 32 other (9 awards · 9 tenders · 6 exempts · 5 returns · 3 inkinds) in window

See when $LPRO insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 318-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 30SC 13D/A
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJul 30SC 13D/A
8-KAgreement terminatedJul 308-K — Item 1.02: Agreement terminated · Item 2.01: Acquisition completed · Item 3.01: Listing / delisting notice · Item 3.03 · Item 5.01: Change in control · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 17SC 13D/A
AI summary

True Wind Capital Management, L.P. (via Nebula Holdings LLC) filed SC 13D/A (Amendment No. 3) on June 15, 2026, reporting a beneficial ownership position of 7,545,144 shares of Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) common stock, all with shared voting and dispositive power. True Wind is a San Francisco-based private equity firm with ongoing strategic engagement with Open Lending. This amended filing may reflect a change in ownership level or intent, signaling continued activist or strategic positioning.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentJun 16SC 13D/A
AI summary

Bregal Sagemount I, L.P. (and related entities Bregal North America General Partner Jersey Ltd and Bregal Investments, Inc.) filed Amendment No. 4 to its Schedule 13D on Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) on June 15, 2026, reporting beneficial ownership of 7,564,566 shares — 6.4% of 117,676,162 shares outstanding as of March 6, 2026. Bregal holds sole voting and dispositive power over all reported shares with no shared power. The amendment is likely tied to Open Lending's concurrently announced $3.15/share merger with ANV Group Holdings, signaling Bregal's position as a significant holder heading into the tender offer.

8-KMaterial agreementJun 168-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) entered into a definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger on June 15, 2026 with ANV Group Holdings Ltd. (UK private company) as acquirer, via a tender offer at $3.15 per share in cash. ANV's subsidiary Lakers Acquisition Sub will commence the tender offer; shares not tendered will be converted to the right to receive $3.15 at the effective time of merger under DGCL Section 251(h). A Reg FD investor presentation was furnished as an exhibit. Transformative take-private deal — the $3.15 cash offer price represents a clear premium to recent trading and is highly material to all LPRO shareholders.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 98-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) filed an 8-K Item 5.02 on June 9, 2026 reporting a departure, election, or appointment of a director or officer. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific personnel change details are disclosed.

+ 28 other (3 SC 14D9/As · 3 SC TO-T/As · 3 13Gs · 2 SC TO-Cs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

ANV Completes Acquisition of Open Lendinggurufocus.com·4d agoANV Completes Acquisition of Open Lendingbusinesswire.com·4d agoOpen Lending and ANV Announce Results of Tender Offerbusinesswire.com·6d agoOpen Lending Investor Alert: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of Open Lending Corporation - LPROgurufocus.com·21d agoOpen Lending Investor Alert: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of Open Lending Corporation - LPRObusinesswire.com·21d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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