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ESESTC

Elastic N.V.

$ESTC·$6.4B·Software - Application·Technology
$61.59-0.8%YTD-18.4%1Y-28.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 45 posts2026-07-11: 3 posts2026-07-12: 8 posts2026-07-13: 25 posts2026-07-14: 16 posts2026-07-15: 10 posts2026-07-16: 3 posts116-33%
Price updated 23h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
ESESTC
$ESTCElastic N.V.
$61.59-0.84%116 posts-33%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ESTC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-18

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Elastic just cut 7% of the workforce for AI-era realignment — three-time Magic Quadrant leader growing 16% at 18x earnings and 5% FCF yield.

Elastic N.V. runs the Elastic Stack observability, security and search platform — the specific reference name for open-source search-and-analytics infrastructure. The stock is down 18% YTD and 29% YoY, sitting in the middle of its 52-week range with a real workforce restructuring and Gartner Leader positioning.

  • The workforce reduction is the specific AI-era realignment catalyst: Elastic committed to a 7% workforce reduction on June 23, targeting alignment with AI-era strategic priorities — that's a real cost-out that could expand margins into 2H 2026 (estimated $22-25M non-recurring cash charges).
  • Revenue growth is stable and mid-teens: Q4 (April) revenue grew 16% YoY to $451M after +17.7% in Q3 and +15.9% in Q2 — three straight quarters of 16%+ growth off a real base, and the 76% gross margin supports the specific SaaS-economics thesis.
  • The Gartner Magic Quadrant leadership is the specific credibility signal: Elastic Recognized as a Leader for the Third Consecutive Year in the Gartner Magic Quadrant for Observability Platforms — that's the specific analyst-credibility positioning that supports enterprise-sales momentum.
  • The class-action tape is the specific overhang: Pomerantz opened an investor investigation — inquiry filing not lawsuit, but it caps the multiple until it resolves, and the Elastic Security's 100% Malware Protection Score in AV-Comparatives 2026 is a real product-quality signal that partly offsets the class-action noise.

The August 27 Q1 FY27 print is the coil-break: revenue growth extending above +15% with continued observability-platform commentary and any specific commentary on the workforce-reduction operating-margin impact is what pushes the tape toward $80+; a growth deceleration below +12% or a class-action-adjacent disclosure sends the stock back through $50 support.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X '$80 calls being bought as high-confidence swing' framing captures the specific bullish flow setup. The Gartner Magic Quadrant Leader status is a real credibility signal that supports the direction.

What to watch: The August 27 Q1 FY27 earnings — revenue growth vs Q4's +16%, workforce-reduction operating-margin impact, and observability-platform commentary. Above-15% growth pushes the tape to $80+; deceleration below +12% sends the stock through $50.

On the calendar: 2026-08-27 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-22

Elastic chatter is heavy on options buying with traders flagging $ESTC 7/17 $80 calls being bought at $0.80-0.95 across multiple posts as a 'high confidence swing'. The chart is described as breaking out with traders targeting $70+. Tone is uniformly long; sample is small but consistent.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ESTC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ESTC.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $ESTC

Partial — Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases; the AI agent bifurcation — contract expansion vs. user substitution is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.9%YTD
-16.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
274%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-1.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
37.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
76.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 28, 2026$0.61$0.56+8.7%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.73$0.64+14.1%
Q3 2025Nov 20, 2025$0.64$0.58+11.1%
Q2 2025Aug 28, 2025$0.60$0.42+43.3%
Next earningsThu, Aug 27·consensus EPS $0.59

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$450.7M+16.0%75.4%-3.6%$4.18$149.8M
Q3 FY26$449.9M+17.7%76.3%0.1%$0.07$41.8M
Q2 FY26$423.5M+15.9%75.9%-1.9%$-0.48$26.0M
Q1 FY26$415.3M+19.5%76.7%-2.3%$-0.23$104.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.7B$1.7B – $1.8B$2.53$2.52 – $2.5421
FY27$2.0B$2.0B – $2.0B$3.24$2.72 – $3.7821
FY28$2.3B$2.2B – $2.4B$3.86$3.13 – $4.5821
FY29$2.7B$2.6B – $2.7B$4.82$2.76 – $6.887
FY30$2.9B$2.9B – $3.0B$4.58$4.42 – $4.753

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.36%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+6.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-6.0%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 89.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.005-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 9Ken ExnerChief Product Officer18.4K sh$1.1MSellJun 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO40.4K sh$2.4MSellJun 9Jane E BoneGVP & CAO1.1K sh$67KSellJun 9Navam WelihindaCFO13.0K sh$786KSellJun 9Shay BanonCTO9.3K sh$563KSellJun 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer9.5K sh$575KSellJun 9Dodds Mark EugeneChief Revenue Officer18.4K sh$1.1MSellMar 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO17.8K sh$928KSellMar 9Navam WelihindaCFO3.2K sh$169KSellMar 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer4.0K sh$209K
1–10 of 14
+ 7 other (7 awards) in window

See when $ESTC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KRestructuring / exit costsJun 248-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Elastic N.V. committed on June 23, 2026 to a workforce reduction cutting approximately 7% of employees, targeting alignment with AI-era strategic priorities. The company expects $22M–$25M in non-recurring cash charges (primarily severance), with substantial charges in Q1 fiscal 2027 and completion by Q3 FY2027. Total headcount is still expected to grow year-over-year as Elastic continues hiring in customer-facing and go-to-market roles. Material — restructuring charge with cost reallocation toward growth areas; 7% cut with net headcount growth signals a strategic rotation, not contraction.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMar 3SC 13D/A
SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Jan 26SC 13D
+ 8 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Elastic Recognized as a Leader for the Third Consecutive Year in the Gartner® Magic Quadrant™ for Observability Platformsbusinesswire.com·2d agoINVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Elastic N.V. - ESTCprnewswire.com·2d agoElastic Security Achieves Industry's Only 100% Malware Protection Score in AV-Comparatives 2026 Business Security Testbusinesswire.com·3d agoINVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Elastic N.V. - ESTCglobenewswire.com·4d agoElastic NV (ESTC) Stock Up 3.6% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 71/100gurufocus.com·5d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareCybersecurity

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ESTC on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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