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MSMSTR

Strategy Inc

$MSTR·$33B·Software - Application·Technology
$132.94+4.4%YTD-36.8%1Y-61.1%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 473 posts7,002+7%
Price updated 16h ago·X counts updated 10d ago
MSMSTR
$MSTRStrategy Inc
$132.94+4.42%7.0k posts+7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MSTR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storySelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-09-01

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

The premium-to-BTC-per-share thesis has cracked under its own dilution machine.

Strategy is a corporate holding vehicle for bitcoin — the operating software business is a rounding error and the equity trades on how much BTC the balance sheet holds and at what implied premium. That premium is the entire game, and it has been collapsing.

Why the story stopped working:

  • The share count itself is the problem — the company raised $2.01B by issuing 18.26M shares this cycle and is running weekly at-the-market programs across five preferred series, so every dollar of new BTC comes with fresh supply that dilutes the BTC-per-share that used to be the whole appeal.
  • Tape confirms the thesis crack — down 61% over the last twelve months, 37% year to date, and sitting in the bottom 18% of its 52-week range with price below the 200-day; this is not chop, it is distribution.
  • The core BTC accumulation is still going — 840K BTC on the balance sheet, roughly 4% of ever-mined supply, and a fresh $370M buy ended a ten-week pause — but a rising BTC price has not been enough to offset the dilution math, which is the tell.
  • Rival vehicles like Strive's ASST are actively outperforming with less dilution, so incremental leveraged-BTC capital has an alternative that does not punish holders with fresh issuance every week.

A real recovery needs a hard pause on issuance long enough for BTC-per-share to rebuild — until then a rising bitcoin only slows the bleed rather than reversing it; a fresh convertible or a new equity tranche is what confirms the breakdown continues.

Differs from X sentimentX is loud on the Canaccord $175 target and the fresh BTC buy, but the mechanics — 61% one-year drawdown, weekly programs across five securities, and Strive outperforming — say the leveraged-BTC premium thesis is broken; the bulls are pricing a rebound the tape isn't confirming.

What to watch: Any 6-8 week pause in new share issuance or convertible pricing (BTC-per-share rebuilds only when the printer stops); a fresh at-the-market tranche or another convert deal seals the breakdown.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment227 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Mood is bullish but louder and more contested than the tape suggests. Bulls trumpet Strategy raising "$2.01 billion by selling 18.26 million $MSTR shares," a Canaccord PT "raised to $175 from $130," and 840,447 BTC (roughly "4% of Total BTC Supply") with net leverage near zero. Bears hammer the "worst capital structure on the planet" dilution story and a "death spiral" thesis, while a rival camp argues Strive's $ASST "is clearly outperforming" MSTR.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MSTR

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding large BTC reserves financed through equity and debt issuance.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MSTR.

Software - Application · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $MSTR

Direct beneficiary — AI-native product or platform captures spend from the same capex cycle driving the industry; Operates as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding large BTC reserves financed through equity and debt issuance.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-4.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
94.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
16.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
96.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-24.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
68.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$-24.45$-2.19-1016.4%
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-38.25$-0.86-4337.4%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$-42.93$-0.08-53562.5%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$8.42$-0.10+8354.9%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $13.29

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$124.3M+11.9%67.1%-12.0%$-38.25$13.0M
Q4 FY25$123.0M+1.9%66.1%-14185%$-42.93$-32.2M
Q3 FY25$128.7M+10.9%70.5%3023%$9.30$14.4B
Q2 FY25$114.5M+2.7%68.8%12256%$36.23$-6.8B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$499.9M$490.1M – $516.6M$3.69$0.50 – $6.888
FY27$506.7M$505.7M – $507.7M$3.92$1.73 – $6.105
FY28$520.8M$517.8M – $523.9M$47.66$4.42 – $132.515
FY29$476.4M$450.3M – $494.6M$391.60$363.68 – $411.072

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.1×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.18%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+32.1%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-5.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 330.0M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today7.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.565-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 25Jarrod M PattenDirector2.8K sh$348KSellAug 24Jarrod M PattenDirector925 sh$113KSellAug 7Jarrod M PattenDirector3.8K sh$389KSellJul 27Jarrod M PattenDirector1.9K sh$192KSellJul 24Jarrod M PattenDirector1.9K sh$180KSellJul 22Jarrod M PattenDirector1.3K sh$125KSellJun 23Jarrod M PattenDirector1.5K sh$159KBuyJun 22Phong LeCEO11.0K sh$999KSellJun 17Jarrod M PattenDirector1.5K sh$182KBuyJun 16Thomas C. ChowEVP & General Counsel111 sh$10K
1–10 of 34
+ 44 other (37 exempts · 7 awards) in window

See when $MSTR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 318-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 248-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on August 24, 2026 the establishment of 'USD Cash,' a new component of its Digital Credit Capital Framework — a separately designated pool of U.S. dollar liquidity that management can deploy flexibly for bitcoin acquisition, preferred stock dividends and interest payments, share repurchases, convertible note repayment, and other Bitcoin Treasury Company purposes. The existing 'USD Reserve' (designated specifically for preferred dividends and debt interest) remains unchanged; USD Cash complements it with broader discretionary deployment flexibility. This is a capital policy update, not a new capital raise, adding operational flexibility to Strategy's multi-security Bitcoin Treasury structure.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 178-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Strategy Inc. (MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) filed an 8-K under Items 7.01 and 8.01, furnishing a Regulation FD disclosure and other material information effective August 17, 2026. The filing lists multiple capital instruments including Series A Perpetual Preferred 'Strife,' 'Stride,' and Variable Rate 'Stretch' series, plus M1000 and M800 series preferred, alongside common stock. No specific content of the disclosure was available in the excerpt. Strategy is the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 108-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR) filed a weekly ATM update for the period August 3–9, 2026: zero shares were sold across all five securities — STRF (Strife preferred), STRC (Stretch preferred), STRK (Strike preferred), STRD (Stride preferred), and MSTR common stock. As of August 9, 2026, remaining authorized ATM capacity is $1.619 billion for STRF, $17.511 billion for STRC, $2.100 billion for STRK, and $4.015 billion for STRD. The zero-sale week signals no capital raising activity during this period.

8-KPress release / Reg FDAug 38-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

MSTR made a Regulation FD disclosure to provide material information simultaneously to all market participants. Reg FD prevents selective disclosure of material non-public information; investor presentations and press releases are commonly furnished under Item 7.01 for fair access by all MSTR investors.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 308-K — Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

MSTR (MSTR) filed an 8-K under Item 2.02 on 2026-07-30 announcing earnings results for the 2026. The filing furnishes a press release with the company's financial results and operational highlights. No detailed headline figures are available in the excerpt — the full earnings press release is attached as an exhibit. This is a routine earnings disclosure; materiality depends on whether results beat or missed consensus expectations.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 278-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

MSTR (MSTR) furnished Reg FD materials under Item 7.01 (Reg FD), filed 2026-07-27. Reg FD disclosures are furnished (not filed) — commonly investor slides, strategy updates, or guidance. Review the exhibit for material new information about business outlook.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 208-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

MSTR filed an 8-K under Item 8.01 (other events). Item 8.01 Other Events. ATM Update On July 20, 2026, Strategy Inc ("Strategy") announced an update with respect to sales made under its at-the-market offering program ("ATM") of the following securities: During Period July 13, 2026 to July 19, 2026 As of July 19, 2026 Security Shares Sold (1) Notion. Investors should review the full filing for context and materiality assessment.

+ 70 other (30 proxys · 25 8-Ks · 4 424B5s · 4 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Strategy Just Bought Bitcoin for the First Time in Over Two Months. Here's Why the Timing Matters.fool.com·17h agoBitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) kondigt aan dat zijn ETH-holdings 5,90 miljoen tokens hebben bereikt en dat de totale holdings in cryptovaluta en liquide middelen 15,6 miljard dollar bedragenprnewswire.com·20h agoStrive Jumps 7% as Strategy Ends 10-Week Bitcoin Pause With $370M Buy247wallst.com·1d agoBitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Announces ETH Holdings Reach 5.90 Million Tokens, and Total Crypto and Total Cash Holdings of $15.6 Billionprnewswire.com·1d agoWall Street Breakfast Podcast: Futures Lower As Oil Risesseekingalpha.com·1d ago

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