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TickerTalks›$MSTR
MSMSTR

Strategy Inc

$MSTR·$28B·Software - Application·Technology
$95.11+1.1%YTD-39.2%1Y-79.4%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-09: 967 posts2026-07-10: 3,964 posts2026-07-11: 1,247 posts2026-07-12: 3,374 posts2026-07-13: 1,359 posts2026-07-14: 990 posts2026-07-15: 1,556 posts13,524-1%
Price updated 11m ago·X counts updated 2d ago
MSMSTR
$MSTRStrategy Inc
$95.11+1.15%14k posts-1%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $MSTR, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Broken storyEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-17

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

The premium-to-NAV trade collapsed; the July 30 call is where management has to name a new bull case.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is Michael Saylor's leveraged Bitcoin proxy — a treasury company that borrows to buy BTC and prices at a premium to that stack. This year the premium has essentially disappeared, and the July 30 call is where the equity story has to answer.

What has actually broken:

  • The reason to own MSTR over spot Bitcoin has evaporated: mNAV — the premium over the BTC it holds — has compressed to about 1.01, meaning the market is paying nothing for Saylor's capital-markets skill.
  • The tape confirms it in force: down 79% over twelve months and sitting at 3% of the 52-week range with the price 45% below the 200-day — that's a full re-rate to the underlying BTC value.
  • The capital-markets flywheel has stalled: the last large BTC buy was mid-May followed by a net 3,588-coin sale — the accretive loop (issue expensive stock, buy cheap BTC) isn't spinning any more.
  • Credit stress is elevated but not extreme: STRC preferred trading at $86 below par confirms the market is repricing balance-sheet risk, and Bitcoin's rally has not carried MSTR with it.

The fix has to be structural, not narrative — the July 30 call needs a specific plan to restore accretive buying and margin the balance sheet against BTC volatility. Absent that, the tape stays broken until Bitcoin appreciation carries the underlying BTC stack.

What to watch: July 30 Q2 call — a specific plan to restore accretive buying, guidance on preferred stability, and any mNAV recovery framework. A credible plan bounces the tape; more of the same continues the re-rate toward pure BTC exposure.

On the calendar: 2026-07-30 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Mixed sentiment⚠86 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15 · top-engagement diverged

Strategy chatter is unusually split ahead of the July 30 Q2 call. The bull side leans on Phong Le's argument that treasury companies are the only way for the trillions of mandated equity/credit capital to get BTC exposure, a possible 4-day RSI bullish divergence, and the view that owning 800,000+ BTC gives Strategy a multi-decade runway. Bears note that Bitcoin has repeatedly outperformed MSTR week-over-week, mNAV has compressed to about 1.01, STRC preferred is below par at $86, MSTR sits near multi-year lows around $93-100, and the last 'large' BTC purchase was in mid-May followed by a net sale of 3,588 BTC. Bitcoin's bounce toward $64K has not resolved the debate.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $MSTR

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding large BTC reserves financed through equity and debt issuance.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $MSTR.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $MSTR

Partial — Operates as a Bitcoin treasury company, holding large BTC reserves financed through equity and debt issuance; exposure exists but is diluted by diverse end markets and revenue mix.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-4.3How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
0.7%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
94.2%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
16.1%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
96.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-24.1%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
68.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.2Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 5, 2026$-38.25$-0.86-4337.4%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$-42.93$-0.08-53562.5%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$8.42$-0.10+8354.9%
Q2 2025Jul 31, 2025$32.60$-0.10+33253.7%
Next earningsThu, Jul 30·consensus EPS $0.79

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$124.3M+11.9%67.1%-12.0%$-38.25$13.0M
Q4 FY25$123.0M+1.9%66.1%-14185%$-42.93$-32.2M
Q3 FY25$128.7M+10.9%70.5%3023%$9.30$14.4B
Q2 FY25$114.5M+2.7%68.8%12256%$36.23$-6.8B

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 8 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$496.8M$487.0M – $513.4M$8.55$7.85 – $9.258
FY27$506.7M$505.7M – $507.7M$3.92$3.65 – $4.125
FY28$520.8M$517.8M – $523.9M$47.66$4.42 – $132.515
FY29$476.4M$451.0M – $495.4M$391.60$364.49 – $411.952

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.3%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-28.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-44.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 329.9M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.4% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β3.545-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 23Jarrod M PattenDirector1.5K sh$159KBuyJun 22Phong LeCEO11.0K sh$999KSellJun 17Jarrod M PattenDirector1.5K sh$182KBuyJun 16Thomas C. ChowEVP & General Counsel111 sh$10KSellJun 15Jarrod M PattenDirector1.5K sh$201KSellJun 9Phong LeCEO5.5K sh$684KSellJun 9Jeanine MontgomeryVP & CAO354 sh$44KSellJun 9Andrew KangCFO1.9K sh$241KSellJun 5Phong LeCEO93.7K sh$11.1MSellJun 5Andrew KangCFO27.8K sh$3.3M
1–10 of 28
+ 38 other (31 exempts · 7 awards) in window

See when $MSTR insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KPress release / Reg FDJul 138-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

MicroStrategy (MSTR) disclosed an update on its at-the-market (ATM) equity programs through July 12, 2026. Under the Class A common stock ATM, the company has sold 4,818,781 shares for net proceeds of $466.7 million, with $23,790.3 million in remaining capacity. The preferred stock ATM programs (STRF at $1.6B, STRC at $17.5B, STRK at $2.1B, and STRD at $4.0B capacity) remain fully available with zero shares sold to date. This update was furnished as a Regulation FD and other-events disclosure on July 13, 2026.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 68-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) disclosed bitcoin activity for the periods June 29 to July 5, 2026: the company sold 1,363 BTC for approximately $80.8 million (average $59,256/BTC) in late June and 2,225 BTC for approximately $135.2 million (average $60,773/BTC) in the July 1-5 period. As of July 5, 2026, Strategy holds 843,775 BTC purchased at an aggregate cost of approximately $63.94 billion (average approximately $75,578/BTC), reflecting an unrealized loss at the prevailing sale prices. The company reported no equity issuance or share repurchase activity under its ATM programs during the period.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 298-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Strategy Inc (formerly MicroStrategy) adopted a Digital Credit Capital Framework on June 29, 2026, comprising five components: a Board-approved USD Reserve policy, revised STRC dividend policy, Digital Credit Securities repurchase program, Class A common stock repurchase program, and a BTC monetization program — designed to strengthen preferred securities and preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure. Comprehensive capital management framework for Strategy's preferred securities and Bitcoin strategy.

424B5Prospectus supplement (offering)Jun 23424B5
AI summary

MSTR filed a 424B5 prospectus supplement on 2026-06-23 at $87.31 per share. This represents dilution happening now.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 228-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Delaware 001-42509 51-0323571 disclosed: t Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, $0.001 par value per share STRC The Nasdaq Global Select Market 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock, $0.001 par value per share STRK The Nasdaq Global Select Market 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock, $0.001 par value per share STRD The Nasdaq Global Select Market Class A common stock, $0.001 par value per share MSTR The Nasdaq Global Select Market Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging gr.

8-KCharter amendmentJun 158-K — Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) filed an 8-K on June 15, 2026 covering material modifications to rights of security holders (Item 3.03), amendments to articles of incorporation/bylaws (Item 5.03), a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01), and other events (Item 8.01). Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the specific charter amendment terms or security holder rights changes are disclosed.

8-KPress release / Reg FDJun 158-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) made a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01) and reported other events (Item 8.01) in an 8-K filed June 15, 2026. Body unavailable — excerpt cuts off before the substance of the disclosure is revealed (likely a Bitcoin acquisition or treasury update).

8-KShareholder voteJun 108-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

Strategy Inc (MSTR) held its 2026 Annual Meeting on June 8, 2026. All eight directors including founder Michael J. Saylor were elected by common shareholders, with Carl J. Rickertsen receiving the highest withhold vote (~32.6M withheld, approximately 9.6% of votes cast). KPMG LLP was ratified as independent auditor for fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, and additional proposals were voted on (details truncated). This is the same filing covering all Strategy Inc. listed securities (MSTR, STRF, STRK, STRC, STRD). Routine annual governance with no material financial impact; the elevated Rickertsen withhold is a modest governance signal.

+ 74 other (30 proxys · 26 8-Ks · 7 13Gs · 3 routine 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

$10,000 in MSTY Became $6,614 in Six Months, Before Counting the Tax Bill247wallst.com·1d agoThe Investors Riding Along With Strategy's Bitcoin Rollercoasterwsj.com·1d agoJapan's Crypto Overhaul Could Open the Door to a Wave of Institutional Moneymarketbeat.com·1d agoThe Big 3: LOW, COST, MSTRyoutube.com·2d agoStrategy Inc (MSTR) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on Itzacks.com·2d ago

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