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APAPP

AppLovin Corporation

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 59% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesConsistent chatter on X (2.4K/wk), no spike
$APP·$117B·Software - Application·Technology
$312.06-1.8%YTD-38.6%1Y-35.2%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 223 posts2026-08-23: 243 posts2,436-0%
Price updated 16h ago·X counts updated 9d ago
APAPP
$APPAppLovin Corporation
$312.06-1.79%2.4k posts-0%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $APP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersSelling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

Falling on heavy selling — points lower unless it turns around.

A business printing 88% gross margins and 60% growth is trading in the bottom 5% of its 52-week range — either a valuation gift or the market smelling something the fundamentals haven't shown.

AppLovin runs an AI-driven ad platform (Axon) that helps mobile app developers acquire and monetize users — one of the highest-quality software businesses in the market by any margin lens. The stock has been cut nearly in half this year despite the fundamentals continuing to print, and the tape now sits in the bottom 5% of its 52-week range.

  • The business is objectively extraordinary: 88% gross margins, 77% operating margins, roughly $6.5B of trailing revenue growing 60% year-over-year and a 65% return on invested capital — those are the numbers of a category leader with structural pricing power, not a broken story.
  • The valuation gap is now significant: at roughly 15x forward earnings and a Rule-of-40 score above 120, this is priced as if growth is about to fall off a cliff — and the last four earnings prints all beat or came in in-line, with the operating margin flat at ~77%.
  • Insider action is quiet but not damning: recent activity is F-InKind (tax withholding) share surrenders plus director gifts, no open-market buys or sells of note; when a stock is down 60% and management isn't stepping up to buy, that's a data point, not a smoking gun.
  • The real risk buyers are pricing is competitive displacement: ChatGPT-style native advertising inside conversational AI could erode the Axon targeting edge that drives the entire margin structure — that's what 'options traders know something' chatter is really about, not a fundamentals miss.

The path if the market is wrong is the Nov 4 Q3 print holding growth and margins — the Rule-of-40-above-120 argument becomes the base case, the multiple starts to recover, and this joins the 'cheap mega-cap software' bucket. The path if the market is right is a subtle deceleration in revenue growth or a gross-margin tick down that confirms the competitive-erosion thesis — and a name trading at 4.5% of its 52-week range has plenty more room to give.

Agrees with X sentimentThe X bull frame — 50% revenue growth, 84% adjusted-EBITDA margin, ~15x forward earnings, Rule-of-40 above 120 — is directionally right on the fundamental case; the skeptic concern about ChatGPT-style targeted advertising eroding Axon's edge is exactly the risk the tape (down 60% YTD) is currently pricing, so this is closer to 'both sides are honest' than 'the market is wrong'.

What to watch: The Nov 4 Q3 print — any deceleration below +50% revenue growth or a gross-margin tick below 88% is what confirms the competitive-erosion thesis and extends the breakdown; an in-line quarter with margins intact is what restarts the re-rating.

On the calendar: 2026-11-04 — Q3 2026 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment143 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

X is loudly bullish on AppLovin, with the drumbeat that a 56%-58% drawdown while revenue grows 53% and EBITDA margins sit above 80% is a "generational dip buy" at roughly 15x forward earnings. Bulls cite Q1-Q2 buybacks of $1.5B, accelerating AXON Pixel installs, and Rule of 40 scores above 120. Skeptics warn the chart is decisively bearish under all moving averages, question growth durability against LLM-driven ad platforms, and target $250-$290 for a real bottom.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $APP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Runs an AI-driven mobile advertising platform matching app marketers with publishers, dominant in mobile gaming.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $APP.

Software - Application · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $APP

Partial — software subscription economics provide some insulation from macro cycles; AI integration is the growth catalyst for this segment; AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platfor.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
47.4How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
65.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
77.1%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
2.4%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
30.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
222%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
88.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 5, 2026$3.76$3.760.0%
Q1 2026May 6, 2026$3.56$3.40+4.7%
Q4 2025Feb 11, 2026$3.24$2.95+9.8%
Q3 2025Nov 5, 2025$2.45$2.38+2.9%
Next earningsWed, Nov 4·consensus EPS $4.05

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.8B+59.0%88.9%78.2%$3.57$1.3B
Q4 FY25$1.7B+20.8%88.9%76.9%$3.26$1.3B
Q3 FY25$1.4B+68.2%87.6%76.8%$2.47$1.1B
Q2 FY25$1.3B+77.0%87.7%76.1%$2.42$772.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 23 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$8.2B$8.1B – $8.3B$16.07$15.37 – $16.8022
FY27$10.7B$10.5B – $11.0B$21.57$20.39 – $23.0423
FY28$13.8B$12.4B – $15.5B$28.49$21.60 – $31.7117
FY29$13.7B$12.7B – $14.8B$34.38$31.16 – $37.8814
FY30$15.3B$14.2B – $16.5B$0.00$0.00 – $0.008

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.3%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-23.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-36.5%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 255.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.0% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β2.535-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJul 6Maynard G WebbDirector3.1K sh$1.6MSellJun 16Eduardo VivasDirector163.6K sh$82.4MSellJun 12Foroughi Arash AdamCEO5.5K sh$2.7MSellJun 11Foroughi Arash AdamCEO1.3K sh$614KSellJun 10Foroughi Arash AdamCEO10.9K sh$5.4MSellJun 5Maynard G WebbDirector3.1K sh$1.8MSellJun 4Victoria ValenzuelaCALO & Corp. Secretary20.0K sh$11.3MSellMay 28Matthew StumpfCFO9.1K sh$5.4MSellMay 22Vasily ShikinCTO1.1K sh$519KSellMar 16Eduardo VivasDirector102 sh$46K
1–10 of 14
+ 26 other (11 awards · 10 inkinds · 4 gifts · 1 conversion) in window

See when $APP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsAug 33
AI summary

AppLovin Corp (APP) filed a Form 3 for Corina Cacovean, newly appointed Chief Legal Officer, disclosing her initial beneficial ownership as of August 1, 2026. She directly owns 6,327 shares of Class A Common Stock, with additional RSU holdings representing rights to receive common shares subject to vesting. No 10%+ threshold is crossed. This is a routine insider ownership disclosure for a newly appointed executive officer.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 23
AI summary

Ge Xiaochuan, Chief Technology Officer of AppLovin Corp. (APP), filed an initial Form 3 on July 1, 2026 disclosing direct beneficial ownership of 974,194 shares of Class A Common Stock, including RSUs and performance-based RSUs subject to vesting schedules and continued service. No additional derivative securities are separately listed. This is a routine initial officer ownership disclosure with no financial or operational significance.

8-KShareholder voteJun 58-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

AppLovin Corporation (APP) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationMay 6S-3ASR
AI summary

APP filed a S-3ASR (automatic shelf) shelf registration statement dated 2026-05-06. The shelf provides capacity to issue equity or debt as market conditions allow. No immediate capital raise is triggered; watch for prospectus supplements disclosing actual transactions.

8-KOfficer or director changeApr 78-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

APP disclosed a personnel change (8-K Item 5.02, dated 2026-04-07). An executive departure and a new appointment are both reported. Personnel changes are generally administrative; materiality depends on seniority and circumstances.

+ 11 other (3 13Gs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Trade Desk Rises 5% on Kokai Zuma Agentic AI Launch, AppLovin and Magnite Barely Budge247wallst.com·1d agoAppLovin vs. Alphabet: Which High-Growth Digital Media Stock Is the Better Investment in 2026?fool.com·4d agoAppLovin Rises 4% After 54% YTD Slide: Does a Subdued P/E Make APP Stock a Good Value Here?247wallst.com·4d agoStocks Rise as Warsh Reassures Investors on Inflation Outlookschaeffersresearch.com·4d agoDo Options Traders Know Something About AppLovin Stock We Don't?zacks.com·4d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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