TickerTalks
Browse all tickers →
TickerTalks›$ESTC
ESESTC

Elastic N.V.

Rising onWhy it's trendingStrong bullish X conversationBacked by solid revenue growth
$ESTC·$7.8B·Software - Application·Technology
$97.55-2.4%YTD-5.8%1Y+14.6%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 18 posts2026-08-23: 18 posts85+22%
Price updated 14m ago·X counts updated 9d ago
ESESTC
$ESTCElastic N.V.
$97.55-2.36%85 posts+22%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
Loading…

AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ESTC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-31

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Elastic ripped 20% on Q1 beat — cRPO +21%, cloud +20%, $143M FCF at 30% margin, and the enterprise-AI thesis genuinely validating.

Elastic N.V. provides Elasticsearch and related observability, search, and security software — the specific pure-play on enterprise-AI retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and unstructured-data search. The Aug 27 Q1 print delivered a 20% one-day pop as the AI-thesis validated with real numbers.

  • The Q1 print was the moment: EPS of $0.70 beat the $0.58 consensus by 20%, revenue grew 16% year-over-year to $451M, cRPO (current remaining performance obligation) grew 21%, cloud revenue grew 20%, and adjusted free cash flow hit $143M at a 30% margin — the compounder profile is fully intact.
  • The enterprise-AI narrative is validating: bulls frame the print as validation of the enterprise-AI thesis (unstructured retrieval, RAG builder, observability) — Elastic is positioned as the underlying search-and-retrieval layer for enterprise AI agents, which is a genuinely differentiated positioning.
  • The valuation is undemanding for the profile: at 17.5x trailing earnings and roughly 24x FY27 EPS (rising to $4.19) with a 5% free-cash-flow yield, ESTC trades cheap for an accelerating enterprise-SaaS name — the reclaim above the $83 breakout is being framed as a clean entry with call flow tripling overnight.
  • Insider tape is functionally absent (zero reported events) but a non-executive director notified the board she won't stand for re-appointment at October 2026 AGM — a modest board-transition event, not a governance concern; the specific tape action confirms institutional buying at the highs.

The path if the run continues is a Nov 19 Q2 print keeping cRPO growth above +20% plus continued cloud-revenue acceleration — the tape earns its next leg beyond $100 and the enterprise-AI-retrieval thesis locks in. What breaks the setup is a Q2 that shows cloud growth decelerating or a specific competitive win by a hyperscaler-native search product; that's when a stock at 88% of the 52-week range gives back to the 50-day support 32% below spot as the beat cadence gets absorbed.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take — Elastic ripping nearly 20% after a fiscal Q1 beat and full-year raise, cRPO up 21% YoY, cloud revenue up 20%, adjusted FCF at $143M for a 30% margin, posters framing the print as validation of the enterprise AI thesis (unstructured retrieval, RAG builder, observability), and reclaim above the $83 breakout as a clean entry with call flow tripling overnight — captures the accelerating validation exactly.

What to watch: The Nov 19 Q2 print — cRPO growth above +20% plus continued cloud-revenue acceleration extends the run beyond $100; cloud growth decelerating or a competitive hyperscaler-native search win is what gives back to 50-day support.

On the calendar: 2026-11-19 — Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment32 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is emphatically bullish following an earnings beat that had Elastic +17-25% after-hours, with posters flagging revenue of $478M, adj EPS of $0.70, cRPO up 21% and a raised FY27 guide. Bulls call it a "GOD CANDLE" and note "Growth holding at 15% while margins expand is a rare combo in software right now". The one substantive caveat: total revenue growth "remains stubbornly stable at 15%", dragged by a "dying Monthly Elastic Cloud segment".

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ESTC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
Free, forever. No credit card.

What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ESTC.

Software - Application · Technology

SaaS multiples remain compressed as rate-sensitive valuations weigh on pure-play software; customers are lengthening deal cycles outside of AI-native workloads. AI co-pilot upsell is the only clear near-term catalyst — companies without it are treading water.

What this means for $ESTC

Partial — fee-based midstream revenue has limited direct commodity price exposure but volume ties to upstream production activity.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-4.2%YTD
+2.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
274%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-1.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
37.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
76.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 27, 2026$0.70$0.58+19.9%
Q1 2026May 28, 2026$0.61$0.56+8.7%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.73$0.64+14.1%
Q3 2025Nov 20, 2025$0.64$0.58+11.1%
Next earningsThu, Nov 19·consensus EPS $0.83

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$450.7M+16.0%75.4%-3.6%$4.18$149.8M
Q3 FY26$449.9M+17.7%76.3%0.1%$0.07$41.8M
Q2 FY26$423.5M+15.9%75.9%-1.9%$-0.48$26.0M
Q1 FY26$415.3M+19.5%76.7%-2.3%$-0.23$104.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 22 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.7B$1.7B – $1.8B$2.53$2.52 – $2.5421
FY27$2.0B$2.0B – $2.0B$3.24$2.87 – $3.7322
FY28$2.3B$2.2B – $2.3B$3.85$3.37 – $4.4921
FY29$2.6B$2.5B – $2.8B$4.73$2.71 – $6.758
FY30$2.9B$2.8B – $3.0B$4.58$4.40 – $4.806

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.2.4×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.84%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+41.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+52.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 83.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today6.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.975-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 9Ken ExnerChief Product Officer18.4K sh$1.1MSellJun 9Navam WelihindaCFO13.0K sh$786KSellJun 9Shay BanonCTO9.3K sh$563KSellJun 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer9.5K sh$575KSellJun 9Jane E BoneGVP & CAO1.1K sh$67KSellJun 9Dodds Mark EugeneChief Revenue Officer18.4K sh$1.1MSellJun 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO40.4K sh$2.4MSellMar 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO17.8K sh$928KSellMar 9Navam WelihindaCFO3.2K sh$169KSellMar 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer4.0K sh$209K
1–10 of 14
+ 7 other (7 awards) in window

See when $ESTC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Elastic N.V. disclosed that non-executive director Caryn Marooney notified the board she will not stand for re-appointment at the October 2026 annual general shareholders meeting, upon expiration of her current term. Marooney currently serves on the Compensation and Nominating/Corporate Governance Committees; her decision is unrelated to any disagreement with the company. This is a routine board transition; a companion press release was issued. No strategic implications beyond normal board refreshment.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentAug 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

Pictet Asset Management SA (Geneva-based investment adviser) filed Amendment No. 2 to Schedule 13D on Elastic N.V. (ESTC) on August 19, 2026, disclosing beneficial ownership of 5,393,567 shares (5.2% of outstanding shares). The filing date event is August 19, 2026. At 5.2% and as an investment adviser, this is a passive/institutional position at the threshold for Schedule 13D filing; no activist intent is indicated, and the amendment likely reflects portfolio activity around the 5% threshold.

8-KRestructuring / exit costsJun 248-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Elastic N.V. committed on June 23, 2026 to a workforce reduction cutting approximately 7% of employees, targeting alignment with AI-era strategic priorities. The company expects $22M–$25M in non-recurring cash charges (primarily severance), with substantial charges in Q1 fiscal 2027 and completion by Q3 FY2027. Total headcount is still expected to grow year-over-year as Elastic continues hiring in customer-facing and go-to-market roles. Material — restructuring charge with cost reallocation toward growth areas; 7% cut with net headcount growth signals a strategic rotation, not contraction.

+ 14 other (5 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Elastic Q1 Earnings Call Highlightsdefenseworld.net·3d agoWhy Elastic Stock Snapped Back Todayfool.com·4d agoElastic Announces Internet Availability of Proxy Materials for its 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholdersbusinesswire.com·4d agoPaul Tudor Jones Started Buying Elastic. Steve Cohen Cut Back Before The AI-Fueled Rallybenzinga.com·4d agoElastic (ESTC) Reports Strong Q1 Results and Raises FY27 Guidancegurufocus.com·4d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareCybersecurity

More in Software - Application

Peers in the same group — one click to compare setups, fundamentals, and chatter.

$MSTR$ZETA$BULL$APP$SNOW$UBER$NOW$STRC
Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

PrivacyTermsSupport