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ESESTC

Elastic N.V.

Rising onWhy it's trendingX chatter picking upMoving on elevated volumeBacked by solid revenue growth
$ESTC·$10B·Software - Application·Technology
$91.74-5.7%YTD+28.9%1Y+13.9%
Price updated 6h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
ESESTC
$ESTCElastic N.V.
$91.74-5.66%90 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $ESTC on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

90X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $ESTC's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 59% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data6 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-05

Elastic more than doubled from its SaaSmageddon lows with contracted near-term demand up 21% while revenue grew 15%, framed as customers committing ahead of consumption. Posters group it with OKTA, CRM and CRWD as top weekly performers, though the Chief Legal Officer sold $937K after a 36% run.

Read what X is saying about $ESTC

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $ESTC — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Elastic has more than doubled from its SaaSmageddon lows — contracted demand +21% versus revenue +15% is the forward signal.

Elastic is the enterprise search and observability platform — the sticky-but-consumption-oriented SaaS plus a growing security product. The business is a textbook recovery story.

  • The business is reaccelerating: Q1 revenue +16% YoY at a slightly-negative operating margin — top-line gradually recovering, with contracted near-term demand up 21% signaling customers committing ahead of consumption.
  • At 17.5x PE and 3.7x sales the valuation is reasonable for a 15%-grower, with ROIC exceptionally high due to earnings-mix dynamics (standard float / timing items in the P&L).
  • 52-week range position is 76% with vol at 52% of average — upper range on light volume, which is sustainable continuation; the stock is grouped with OKTA, CRM, and CRWD as top weekly performers.
  • The honest flag: the Chief Legal Officer sold $937K after a 36% run — not thesis-breaking at this size, but a small signal to track.

Nov 19 Q2 is the gate — any confirmed contracted-demand reacceleration plus continued revenue growth extends the move. A customer-consumption slowdown or margin compression and the stock gives back some of the YTD gain.

Agrees with X sentimentThe thread has substantive drivers — doubling from SaaSmageddon lows, contracted demand +21% vs revenue +15% signaling customers committing ahead of consumption, OKTA/CRM/CRWD peer grouping, and the honest CLO $937K insider sale flag — all grounded.

What to watch: Nov 19 Q2 — contracted demand growth, consumption-driven revenue, security revenue mix, operating-margin trajectory, and FY27 guide. A consumption slowdown is the clear invalidator.

On the calendar: 2026-11-19 — Q2 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $ESTC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ESTC.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — Adobe Q3 lifted guidance with triple-digit AI-first ARR, validating the AI upsell bifurcation: vendors embedding AI agents into core workflows (NOW, CRM, SAP, WDAY, TEAM, ADBE) are re-accelerating whi.

What this means for $ESTC

Partial — Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases.; AI feature integration is the primary renewal variable in enterprise SaaS; execution on AI roadmap determines re-rating potential.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+4.2%YTD
-7.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
274%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-1.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
37.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
76.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 27, 2026$0.70$0.58+19.9%
Q1 2026May 28, 2026$0.61$0.56+8.7%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.73$0.64+14.1%
Q3 2025Nov 20, 2025$0.64$0.58+11.1%
Next earningsThu, Nov 19·consensus EPS $0.81

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$450.7M+16.0%75.4%-3.6%$4.18$149.8M
Q3 FY26$449.9M+17.7%76.3%0.1%$0.07$41.8M
Q2 FY26$423.5M+15.9%75.9%-1.9%$-0.48$26.0M
Q1 FY26$415.3M+19.5%76.7%-2.3%$-0.23$104.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.7B$1.7B – $1.8B$2.53$2.52 – $2.5421
FY27$2.0B$2.0B – $2.1B$3.36$3.34 – $3.3820
FY28$2.3B$2.3B – $2.3B$3.95$3.74 – $4.1321
FY29$2.6B$2.5B – $2.8B$4.76$2.82 – $6.8312
FY30$2.9B$2.8B – $2.9B$5.10$4.99 – $5.266

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.75%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+3.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+39.1%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 90.2M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today3.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.045-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellOct 12Steven SchuurmanDirector2.0M sh$188.3MSellOct 5Steven SchuurmanDirector1.5M sh$135.2MSellOct 2Dodds Mark EugeneChief Revenue Officer10.0K sh$926KSellSep 14Shay BanonCTO84.2K sh$7.1MSellSep 10Shay BanonCTO6.2K sh$528KSellSep 9Shay BanonCTO155.6K sh$13.5MSellSep 9Jane E BoneGVP & CAO1.5K sh$135KSellSep 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer5.5K sh$481KSellSep 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO29.2K sh$2.6MSellSep 9Navam WelihindaCFO9.0K sh$787K
1–10 of 25
+ 8 other (7 awards · 1 gift) in window

See when $ESTC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Oct 6SC 13D
SC 13D/AActivist amendmentSep 2SC 13D/A
AI summary

Pictet Asset Management SA, a Switzerland-based registered investment adviser, filed Amendment No. 3 to its Schedule 13D for Elastic N.V. (ESTC), reporting beneficial ownership of 5,249,555 shares representing approximately 4.9% of outstanding common stock. The shares are held on behalf of discretionary client accounts managed by Pictet as a passive investment manager. The amendment updates the share count and affirms Pictet does not seek to influence or control the company.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 278-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD · Item 8.01: Other event
AI summary

Elastic N.V. disclosed that non-executive director Caryn Marooney notified the board she will not stand for re-appointment at the October 2026 annual general shareholders meeting, upon expiration of her current term. Marooney currently serves on the Compensation and Nominating/Corporate Governance Committees; her decision is unrelated to any disagreement with the company. This is a routine board transition; a companion press release was issued. No strategic implications beyond normal board refreshment.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentAug 20SC 13D/A
AI summary

Pictet Asset Management SA (Geneva-based investment adviser) filed Amendment No. 2 to Schedule 13D on Elastic N.V. (ESTC) on August 19, 2026, disclosing beneficial ownership of 5,393,567 shares (5.2% of outstanding shares). The filing date event is August 19, 2026. At 5.2% and as an investment adviser, this is a passive/institutional position at the threshold for Schedule 13D filing; no activist intent is indicated, and the amendment likely reflects portfolio activity around the 5% threshold.

8-KRestructuring / exit costsJun 248-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Elastic N.V. committed on June 23, 2026 to a workforce reduction cutting approximately 7% of employees, targeting alignment with AI-era strategic priorities. The company expects $22M–$25M in non-recurring cash charges (primarily severance), with substantial charges in Q1 fiscal 2027 and completion by Q3 FY2027. Total headcount is still expected to grow year-over-year as Elastic continues hiring in customer-facing and go-to-market roles. Material — restructuring charge with cost reallocation toward growth areas; 7% cut with net headcount growth signals a strategic rotation, not contraction.

+ 13 other (5 proxys · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 1 ARS) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Is Elastic NV (ESTC) a Bargain After 5.7% Drop? GF Value Says Undervaluedgurufocus.com·9h agoElastic Introduces Elastic nightshift AI SRE to Investigate with the Full Context Others Can't Afford to Keepbusinesswire.com·9d agoElastic Announces AlertZero, a Team of Specialized AI Agents for the Security Operations Lifecyclegurufocus.com·9d agoElastic Announces AlertZero, a Team of Specialized AI Agents for the Security Operations Lifecyclebusinesswire.com·9d agoAusbil Investment Management Ltd Buys 7,402 Shares of Elastic N.V. $ESTCdefenseworld.net·9d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareCybersecurity

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ESTC on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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