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ESESTC

Elastic N.V.

$ESTC·$6.3B·Software - Application·Technology
$61.44-1.1%YTD-17.7%1Y-27.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 45 posts2026-07-11: 3 posts2026-07-12: 8 posts2026-07-13: 25 posts2026-07-14: 16 posts2026-07-15: 10 posts2026-07-16: 3 posts116+10%
Price updated 1m ago·X counts updated 18h ago
ESESTC
$ESTCElastic N.V.
$61.44-1.08%116 posts+10%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ESTC, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Comeback attemptWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

Elastic down 26% in a year on AI-fears — search-and-security leader with 7% workforce cut and $70 target.

Elastic N.V. is the leading enterprise search-and-analytics platform — the Elasticsearch open-source engine plus commercial Kibana, Beats, and increasingly security and observability products. The stock is down 26% over the past year on AI-agent-disruption fears, weighed down by general software rotation.

  • Revenue grew 16% YoY last quarter with a modest operating margin — real growth for a mature enterprise-SaaS name; the trajectory is defensible even in the AI-fear environment.
  • Trades at 18x TTM earnings, 3.7x sales, and a 5% FCF yield — reasonable multiples for a growth software business with genuine cash generation; the multiple has room to expand as the AI-fear compression reverses.
  • The June 23 workforce reduction (~7% of employees) targeting AI-era strategic priorities represents real operational refresh — $20M+ in expected charges but positioning for improved operating leverage.
  • Elastic Security achieved industry's only 100% Malware Protection Score in AV-Comparatives 2026 Business Security Test (July 15) — real product-differentiation proof point that supports the security-vertical thesis.
  • The Pomerantz Law Firm investigation notice (July 14) is opportunistic law-firm activity; the community's bullish options-buying at $80 calls captures the constructive-swing setup.

August 27 Q1 FY27 earnings is where the AI-workflow story either extends or contracts: revenue growth held above 15% plus specific security-vertical growth commentary is what confirms the setup; a soft print or a Q2 guide reflecting slowing enterprise renewals is where the -26% T12M extends further. Real enterprise-search-and-security franchise at a real discount — the AI-fear premium coming out is the entire opportunity.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take on the $80 call-buying, the breakout targeting $70+, and the swing-setup framing is analytically consistent with the setup. The security-vertical proof-points (100% Malware Protection Score) support the fundamental case.

What to watch: Aug 27 Q1 FY27 earnings — need revenue growth held above 15% and specific security-vertical growth commentary. A soft print or Q2 guide reflecting slowing enterprise renewals is where -26% T12M extends further.

On the calendar: 2026-08-27 — Q1 FY27 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-22

Elastic chatter is heavy on options buying with traders flagging $ESTC 7/17 $80 calls being bought at $0.80-0.95 across multiple posts as a 'high confidence swing'. The chart is described as breaking out with traders targeting $70+. Tone is uniformly long; sample is small but consistent.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ESTC

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Software - Application sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ESTC.

Software - Application · Technology

No material change from last week — platforms where agents expand contract value (ServiceNow, Snowflake) are re-rated upward, while tools where agents substitute human users (Adobe Creative..

What this means for $ESTC

Partial — Develops Elasticsearch and Kibana platforms for enterprise search, log observability, and security SIEM use cases; the AI agent bifurcation — contract expansion vs. user substitution is a secondary rather than primary near-term earnings catalyst.

Top industry ETF

$IGViShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
-12.0%YTD
-14.7%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
17.5How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
274%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-1.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
5.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
3.7Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
37.4%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
76.1%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.5Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026May 28, 2026$0.61$0.56+8.7%
Q4 2025Feb 26, 2026$0.73$0.64+14.1%
Q3 2025Nov 20, 2025$0.64$0.58+11.1%
Q2 2025Aug 28, 2025$0.60$0.42+43.3%
Next earningsThu, Aug 27·consensus EPS $0.59

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q4 FY26$450.7M+16.0%75.4%-3.6%$4.18$149.8M
Q3 FY26$449.9M+17.7%76.3%0.1%$0.07$41.8M
Q2 FY26$423.5M+15.9%75.9%-1.9%$-0.48$26.0M
Q1 FY26$415.3M+19.5%76.7%-2.3%$-0.23$104.2M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 21 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$1.7B$1.7B – $1.8B$2.53$2.52 – $2.5421
FY27$2.0B$2.0B – $2.0B$3.24$2.72 – $3.7821
FY28$2.3B$2.2B – $2.4B$3.86$3.13 – $4.5821
FY29$2.7B$2.6B – $2.7B$4.82$2.76 – $6.887
FY30$2.9B$2.9B – $3.0B$4.58$4.42 – $4.753

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.8×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.37%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+7.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-5.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 89.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today1.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.005-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 9Ken ExnerChief Product Officer18.4K sh$1.1MSellJun 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO40.4K sh$2.4MSellJun 9Jane E BoneGVP & CAO1.1K sh$67KSellJun 9Navam WelihindaCFO13.0K sh$786KSellJun 9Shay BanonCTO9.3K sh$563KSellJun 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer9.5K sh$575KSellJun 9Dodds Mark EugeneChief Revenue Officer18.4K sh$1.1MSellMar 9Ashutosh KulkarniCEO17.8K sh$928KSellMar 9Navam WelihindaCFO3.2K sh$169KSellMar 9Carolyn HerzogChief Legal Officer4.0K sh$209K
1–10 of 14
+ 7 other (7 awards) in window

See when $ESTC insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KRestructuring / exit costsJun 248-K — Item 2.05: Restructuring / exit costs · Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Elastic N.V. committed on June 23, 2026 to a workforce reduction cutting approximately 7% of employees, targeting alignment with AI-era strategic priorities. The company expects $22M–$25M in non-recurring cash charges (primarily severance), with substantial charges in Q1 fiscal 2027 and completion by Q3 FY2027. Total headcount is still expected to grow year-over-year as Elastic continues hiring in customer-facing and go-to-market roles. Material — restructuring charge with cost reallocation toward growth areas; 7% cut with net headcount growth signals a strategic rotation, not contraction.

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentMar 3SC 13D/A
SC 13DActivist position (5%+)Jan 26SC 13D
+ 8 other (3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 S-8 · 1 10-K) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Elastic Recognized as a Leader for the Third Consecutive Year in the Gartner® Magic Quadrant™ for Observability Platformsbusinesswire.com·1d agoINVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Elastic N.V. - ESTCprnewswire.com·1d agoElastic Security Achieves Industry's Only 100% Malware Protection Score in AV-Comparatives 2026 Business Security Testbusinesswire.com·2d agoINVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Elastic N.V. - ESTCglobenewswire.com·3d agoElastic NV (ESTC) Stock Up 3.6% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 71/100gurufocus.com·4d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

AI InfrastructureAgentic AI & Enterprise SoftwareCybersecurity

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ESTC on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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