EQT Corporation

EQT Corporation is the largest independent US natural gas producer (Marcellus shale focus, ~1.7M gross acres in the Appalachian Basin, plus midstream ownership). The stock is up 5% over 12 months and down 1% YTD at 30% of the 52-week range — testing 52-week lows despite strong operating metrics.

• The Q2 print is a specific in-line: EPS $0.39 vs $0.41 estimate (-5.4% miss but on the trailing base), revenue $1.81B (above $1.76B), and the last four EPS surprises are -5.4%, +12%, +18.4%, +43.8% — mostly beats. Analysts model FY26 EPS $4.23 declining to $4.01 FY27 (typical cyclical mean-reversion) and $5.28 FY28 recovery — plus a $45M net derivatives gain in Q2 ($73M cash receipt from hedges).

• The strategic layer is compelling and specific: CFO Jeremy Knop called EQT's own stock 'the best acquisition available' via buybacks — framing it as the only large-scale integrated US natural-gas producer with Appalachian Basin scale plus midstream ownership. Scottish Mortgage disclosed a £77.5M new position pairing EQT with VST as an AI-power-demand play, and Bloomberg Intelligence flagged Jan 27 gas at ~$4 as potential squeeze support.

• The counterweights are honest: 9.7x TTM P/E is genuinely cheap, D/E 0.23 comfortable, FCF yield 12.3%, operating margin 47%, 30% of 52w range shows the tape is oversold, small officer F-InKind transactions (Fenton, Bolen, Knop July 24-27) are structural signals — plus '2 Energy Stocks With More Hype Than Fundamentals' Fool framing is a contrarian voice.

The October 20 Q3 print is the next gate — a specific EPS beat above the $0.55 estimate plus continued buyback cadence and specific AI-data-center-demand commercial-contract commentary is what breaks the coil upward toward $65. A specific natural-gas price rollover below $3.00/mcf, a fresh production-shortfall disclosure, or a Marcellus-basin-specific cost warning is what would take a coiling name at 30% of 52w range back below $45.