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COCOP

ConocoPhillips

$COP·$128B·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production·Energy
$109.04+0.9%YTD+16.5%1Y+14.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-03: 64 posts2026-07-04: 7 posts2026-07-05: 62 posts2026-07-06: 149 posts2026-07-07: 187 posts2026-07-08: 316 posts2026-07-09: 305 posts1,093+53%
Price updated 18h ago·X counts updated 2d ago
COCOP
$COPConocoPhillips
$109.04+0.94%1.1k posts+53%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-10

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

Large-cap Permian E&P at 12.8% FCF yield with a strategic-reserve drain and Roth raising to $130 — Q2 print August 6.

ConocoPhillips is a large-cap US and international oil-and-gas E&P business — Permian and Alaska in the US, plus Norway, Malaysia, Qatar, and other assets internationally. The stock is up 15% YTD and sits at mid-range as the market reprices the Middle East risk premium alongside sustained SPR drawdowns.

Where this stands:

  • Q1 revenue was down 2.5% YoY to $16B on lower realized prices, but operating margin held at 21% and free cash flow of $4.3B funded both the buyback and the shareholder-return commitment — the 12.8% FCF yield is what makes the multi-year investor case.
  • Roth upgraded to Buy with a $130 target (from $124) citing the SPR drawdown of 75M barrels since the Iran conflict as structurally supportive of crude prices — that's not a quarter-timing call, that's a two-to-three-year setup on inventory dynamics.
  • The June 30 S-3ASR shelf registration was routine (large accelerated filer status maintained) and the June 23 officer departure without specific narrative in the excerpt suggests it's non-material, but worth watching for follow-up disclosure at the August 6 print.

The August 6 print is the event — a beat with Permian production above 950 kbd plus cost-discipline commentary lifts the tape past $115; a soft print combined with any Middle East de-escalation reduces the risk premium and takes the tape back to $100. What decides the multi-year story is the Marathon-integration cost-synergy realization pace, not the Q2 print itself.

Agrees with X sentimentAgreeing with the thin bullish X commentary — Roth's $130 upgrade and the SPR drawdown at 1983 lows are specific bullish anchors that back the trade. What the thin discussion doesn't cover is that COP's own cost-side execution (Marathon-integration synergies) matters more than crude prices for the FY26 numbers — the August 6 print quantifies that specifically.

What to watch: August 6 Q2 earnings. Permian production above 950 kbd plus cost-discipline commentary lifts the tape past $115; a soft print or Middle East de-escalation reducing the risk premium takes COP back to $100.

On the calendar: 2026-08-06 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-06-29

ConocoPhillips was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Roth with PT raised to $130 from $124. The US emergency oil reserve just hit its lowest point since 1983 (down 75M barrels since Iran war). Energy stocks broadly under pressure on 4%+ drop in crude. COP is rating-changed maintained BUY at $130. Bears note lower oil prices reduce near-term earnings expectations. Tone is bullish on the analyst upgrade and SPR drawdown setup.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major independent E&P producing oil and gas across diversified global conventional and unconventional assets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COP.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

No material change from last week — an outcome that compresses the upside price optionality that E&Ps have been pricing.

What this means for $COP

Direct beneficiary — ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas.

Industry benchmark

11-name peer basket
+35.0%YTD
+7.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$1.89$1.72+9.9%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$1.02$1.07-4.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.61$1.41+14.2%
Q2 2025Aug 7, 2025$1.42$1.35+5.2%
Next earningsThu, Aug 6·consensus EPS $2.85

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$16.1B-2.5%46.7%20.9%$1.78$4.3B
Q4 FY25$13.3B-6.5%19.6%15.1%$1.17$1.3B
Q3 FY25$15.0B+15.2%23.4%18.1%$1.38$12.5B
Q2 FY25$14.0B+2.9%24.4%18.5%$1.56$199.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$70.5B$57.8B – $81.1B$9.98$8.98 – $12.406
FY27$65.2B$61.4B – $70.4B$9.04$6.96 – $10.276
FY28$66.8B$66.5B – $67.0B$9.15$5.69 – $11.524
FY29$72.1B$65.5B – $78.5B$10.09$8.90 – $11.263
FY30$73.4B$66.7B – $80.0B$9.14$8.07 – $10.213

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.5×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.47%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-5.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+2.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

β0.125-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellJun 10Sharmila MulliganDirector2.0K sh$235KSellMar 31Lance Ryan MichaelCEO113.2K sh$15.0MSellMar 24Rose Kelly BrunettiSVP & General Counsel7.7K sh$1.0MSellMar 23Nicholas G OldsPresident7.0K sh$889KSellMar 20Lance Ryan MichaelCEO506.8K sh$64.5MSellMar 13Heather G. HrapPresident2.7K sh$318KSellMar 13Andrew D LundquistPresident34.5K sh$4.1MSellMar 12Nicholas G OldsPresident14.5K sh$1.7MSellMar 12Haynes Welsh Kontessa SVP & Controller10.3K sh$1.2MSellMar 11Nicholas G OldsPresident12.2K sh$1.4M
1–10 of 12
+ 26 other (14 exempts · 9 inkinds · 2 awards · 1 gift) in window

See when $COP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 30S-3ASR
AI summary

ConocoPhillips filed an automatic shelf registration (Form S-3ASR) for various securities including debt, equity, preferred shares, warrants, depositary shares, and prepaid forward purchase contracts. Large accelerated filer with well-known seasoned issuer status. Routine shelf enabling flexible capital markets access; no immediate offering was announced.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Delaware 001-32395 01-0562944 reported departure or retirement of an officer: No.) 925 N. Eldridge Parkway Houston , Texas 77079 (Address of principal executive offices and zip code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: ( 281 ) 293-1000 Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ¨ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under th.

8-KShareholder voteMay 148-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

ConocoPhillips held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on May 12, 2026, with 1,218,853,041 shares outstanding as of the record date. All 13 nominated directors were elected to one-year terms. All other annual meeting proposals are reported in the filing. Routine annual meeting governance disclosure for one of the world's largest independent oil and gas producers.

3/ANew insider — initial holdingsJan 163/A
+ 14 other (4 S-8 POSs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs · 2 proxys) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Oil Is Spiking and the Iran Ceasefire Is Cracking: What It Means for Your Stocks247wallst.com·1d agoConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Notezacks.com·2d agoVanguard Energy vs Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure: Which ETF Is Delivering Profits From Rising Energy Costs?fool.com·2d agoConocoPhillips (COP) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Knowzacks.com·3d agoOccidental Petroleum Jumps 4% While ExxonMobil, Chevron Lag: Evercore Upgrade and Oil Spike Fuel OXY’s Lead247wallst.com·3d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $COP on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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