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COCOP

ConocoPhillips

$COP·$143B·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production·Energy
$132.49+1.6%YTD+26.0%1Y+33.8%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-21: 31 posts2026-08-22: 12 posts2026-08-23: 13 posts2026-08-24: 13 posts187+7%
Price updated 2h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
COCOP
$COPConocoPhillips
$132.49+1.64%187 posts+7%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $COP, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-08-29

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

ConocoPhillips at 89% of 52-week range with an EPS beat, CEO succession set, and geopolitical tailwinds — quality E&P compounder.

ConocoPhillips is one of the largest US independent E&Ps — Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, plus international assets. The setup is a real-business quality energy compounder catching a specific geopolitical setup.

  • The Q2 print was clean: EPS came in at $3.24 vs a $2.90 consensus (a ~12% beat), revenue at $19.52B was ahead, and the sell side models FY26 EPS at ~$9.61 rising to ~$8.71 in 2027 (implied oil-price sensitivity) with a real 12.8% FCF yield that anchors buybacks and dividend growth.
  • The CEO succession is a governance step-up: Andy O'Brien (currently EVP Strategy/Commercial/CFO) becomes President and CEO effective September 1 — a promotion from within signals continuity of strategy at a good moment operationally, not a distress-driven change.
  • The geopolitical tape is stacked: Treasury removing Syria as a "state sponsor of terror" opens Iraq oil pipeline rebuilds to Syria/Turkey (bullish for COP/BP/CVX), and Axios reports of a US-Venezuela oil deal closing add additional Gulf Coast supply optionality — both are real 2026-2027 upstream tailwinds for the majors.

The setup is a real-business quality E&P accelerating on the combination of strong Q2 execution, clean CEO succession, and specific geopolitical tailwinds — the November 5 Q3 print is the referee, and the market needs continued production growth plus reiterated FY EPS toward the $9.61 consensus. A dip back to $125 forms the right handle of the crowd's big cup pattern; a break of WTI below $65/bbl or a soft production print cools the tape from the 52-week range top.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X read on COP up ~30% from the summer bottom, the 4-year long H&S continuation plus inverse H&S formation, the Treasury-removing-Syria-as-terror-sponsor-enabling-Iraq-pipeline thesis, and the CITGO refining hidden-value uplift is factually consistent with the announcements. The XLE-strength-timing skepticism is a fair caveat.

What to watch: The November 5 Q3 earnings — need continued production growth, realized oil-price disclosure at recent averages, and reiterated FY EPS toward $9.61 consensus. A break of WTI below $65/bbl or a soft production print cools the tape from the 52-week range top; a dip to $125 forms the right handle of the crowd's big cup pattern.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-27

ConocoPhillips sentiment is confidently bullish. Users highlight COP up ~30% from the summer bottom and one of many oil stocks surging this month, a 4-year long H&S continuation ('nice to look at, hard to trade' per Peter Brandt) plus an Inverse H&S forming approaching major resistance with solid 100MA support, and thesis that Treasury removing Syria as a 'state sponsor of terror' could enable Iraq oil pipeline builds/rebuilds to Syria/Turkey (bullish for COP/BP/CVX). Bulls also cite ConocoPhillips's uplift from hidden CITGO refining value. Skepticism is limited to XLE-strength timing question; the modal stance is 'dip back to $125 would be opportunity to form the right handle of the big cup'.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $COP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major independent E&P producing oil and gas across diversified global conventional and unconventional assets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COP.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

Oil price cycle — WTI trading in the $70-$85 band — is the core driver; OPEC+ production discipline and US shale cost structures determine free-cash-flow at current strip. Geopolitical risk premium provides a floor but macro demand uncertainty caps the upside.

What this means for $COP

Direct beneficiary — upstream production economics move directly with oil price; ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, prod.

Industry benchmark

23-name peer basket
+40.2%YTD
+43.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$3.24$2.90+11.7%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$1.89$1.72+9.9%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$1.02$1.07-4.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.61$1.41+14.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $2.59

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$16.1B-2.5%46.7%20.9%$1.78$4.3B
Q4 FY25$13.3B-6.5%19.6%15.1%$1.17$1.3B
Q3 FY25$15.0B+15.2%23.4%18.1%$1.38$12.5B
Q2 FY25$14.0B+2.9%24.4%18.5%$1.56$199.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$69.0B$62.0B – $78.9B$9.61$8.78 – $11.024
FY27$64.9B$63.7B – $66.7B$8.71$6.89 – $9.675
FY28$66.7B$63.7B – $70.0B$9.34$6.56 – $11.354
FY29$72.1B$67.8B – $76.6B$10.36$9.57 – $11.213
FY30$73.4B$69.1B – $78.0B$9.14$8.44 – $9.883

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.89%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+16.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FilingActive offeringA shelf registration (S-3 / S-3ASR / S-1) or prospectus supplement (424B*) was filed in the last 90 days — the company is registered to (or actively) issuing new shares. Dilution risk.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21Andrew D LundquistPresident9.5K sh$1.3MSellAug 20Rose Kelly BrunettiSVP & General Counsel15.0K sh$2.0MSellJun 10Sharmila MulliganDirector2.0K sh$235KSellMar 31Lance Ryan MichaelCEO113.2K sh$15.0MSellMar 24Rose Kelly BrunettiSVP & General Counsel7.7K sh$1.0MSellMar 23Nicholas G OldsPresident7.0K sh$889KSellMar 20Lance Ryan MichaelCEO506.8K sh$64.5MSellMar 13Heather G. HrapPresident2.7K sh$318KSellMar 13Andrew D LundquistPresident34.5K sh$4.1MSellMar 12Nicholas G OldsPresident14.5K sh$1.7M
1–10 of 14
+ 10 other (6 exempts · 2 awards · 1 gift · 1 inkind) in window

See when $COP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

ConocoPhillips (COP) disclosed a significant leadership succession effective September 1, 2026: Andrew (Andy) M. O'Brien, currently Executive Vice President for Strategy, Commercial, and CFO, will become President and Chief Executive Officer and join the Board, while long-tenured CEO Ryan M. Lance will retire from operating leadership and assume the role of Executive Chair. Simultaneously, Kontessa S. Haynes-Welsh advances from Vice President, Finance and Controller to Senior Vice President and CFO, and Greig Patterson steps up to VP, Finance and Controller. As one of the world's largest independent oil and gas producers with major positions in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and LNG, ConocoPhillips' CEO transition — from a founder-era leader to a CFO-turned-CEO — is material news that investors will watch for any signal of shifts in capital return policy, M&A appetite, or strategic direction.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 30S-3ASR
AI summary

ConocoPhillips filed an automatic shelf registration (Form S-3ASR) for various securities including debt, equity, preferred shares, warrants, depositary shares, and prepaid forward purchase contracts. Large accelerated filer with well-known seasoned issuer status. Routine shelf enabling flexible capital markets access; no immediate offering was announced.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Delaware 001-32395 01-0562944 reported departure or retirement of an officer: No.) 925 N. Eldridge Parkway Houston , Texas 77079 (Address of principal executive offices and zip code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: ( 281 ) 293-1000 Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ¨ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under th.

8-KShareholder voteMay 148-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

ConocoPhillips held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on May 12, 2026, with 1,218,853,041 shares outstanding as of the record date. All 13 nominated directors were elected to one-year terms. All other annual meeting proposals are reported in the filing. Routine annual meeting governance disclosure for one of the world's largest independent oil and gas producers.

+ 14 other (4 S-8 POSs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 2 13Gs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Devon Energy vs. ConocoPhillips: Which Oil Stock Is the Better Buy?zacks.com·3d agoAccording to Axios, the U.S. Is Closing in on a Massive Venezuela Oil Deal. 3 Oil Stocks That Could Win.fool.com·3d ago3 Energy Stocks Positioned to Benefit From Iraq's Oil Ambitionsfool.com·7d agoWhich Oil and Gas Stock Has Dominated in 2026: ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, or Occidental Petroleum?247wallst.com·7d agoB. Metzler seel. Sohn & Co. AG Makes New $6.90 Million Investment in ConocoPhillips $COPdefenseworld.net·10d ago

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