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COCOP

ConocoPhillips

$COP·$163B·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production·Energy
$146.51+3.4%YTD+51.4%1Y+68.6%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
COCOP
$COPConocoPhillips
$146.51+3.37%454 posts1×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $COP on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

454X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $COP's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-09

ConocoPhillips is attempting a fresh rectangle breakout above $138 after nearly 4.5 years of consolidation, and technicians are grouping it with $APA, $XOM and $CVX as clean same-sector setups. Iran's threat to hit U.S. oil companies if its ships are struck again adds a geopolitical tape.

Read what X is saying about $COP

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $COP — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-02

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

ConocoPhillips coiled below $138 — 20-year LNG deal with Venture Global adds a specific export-growth leg.

ConocoPhillips is a global exploration-and-production independent — Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford shale plus Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, International assets. The stock is up 36% YTD, coiled right below $138 resistance after a 4.5-year consolidation.

  • The P&L is holding: revenue fell 2.4% YoY to $16.05B last quarter at 18% operating margin and EPS $1.78 — the shale operations are generating strong cash flow at current oil prices, and the Permian scale (post-Marathon Oil deal) is the growth engine.
  • The 20-year Venture Global LNG sales and purchase agreement is a specific commercial milestone — long-dated LNG offtake locks in gas-pricing economics for Alaska and other upstream assets, giving the FY27+ cash flow more visibility.
  • At 19.6x trailing earnings and 2.4x sales with a dividend yield of ~3%, this is reasonably priced relative to peers; the Iran-threat-to-US-oil-companies geopolitical layer adds a tape-level tail risk, which is more upside than downside for an upstream producer.

The coil breaks higher if Nov 5 earnings confirm Permian cash-flow growth above 10% YoY and management reiterates the FY27 share-buyback framework. A soft Permian print, or Brent dropping below $70, is what breaks the coil lower; a FY27 guide-up tied to the Venture Global LNG deal is what extends it through $138 toward prior cycle highs.

Agrees with X sentimentX bulls citing the rectangular breakout above $138, the APA/XOM/CVX same-sector cluster framing, and the Iran-geopolitical tape have the technical and macro setup elements correct — the Venture Global LNG deal is a tangible fundamental anchor.

What to watch: Nov 5 earnings — Permian cash flow growth above 10% YoY, free cash flow trajectory, FY27 share-buyback framework, and any LNG-related commentary. A soft Permian print or Brent below $70 is what breaks the coil lower.

On the calendar: 2026-11-05 — Q3 FY26 earnings

Read the AI verdict on $COP

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Major independent E&P producing oil and gas across diversified global conventional and unconventional assets.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $COP.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

No material change from last week — Oil retreats as Macron calls G7 to release strategic reserves, trimming the geopolitical premium added by Houthi Red Sea seizure.

What this means for $COP

Neutral — Major independent E&P producing oil and gas across diversified global conventional and unconventional assets.

Industry benchmark

27-name peer basket
+50.1%YTD
+51.6%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
19.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
6.1%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
18.3%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
12.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.4Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
11.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
29.2%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Aug 6, 2026$3.24$2.90+11.7%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$1.89$1.72+9.9%
Q4 2025Feb 5, 2026$1.02$1.07-4.7%
Q3 2025Nov 6, 2025$1.61$1.41+14.2%
Next earningsThu, Nov 5·consensus EPS $2.99

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$16.1B-2.5%46.7%20.9%$1.78$4.3B
Q4 FY25$13.3B-6.5%19.6%15.1%$1.17$1.3B
Q3 FY25$15.0B+15.2%23.4%18.1%$1.38$12.5B
Q2 FY25$14.0B+2.9%24.4%18.5%$1.56$199.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 9 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$72.2B$66.8B – $75.7B$10.88$9.33 – $12.179
FY27$67.1B$61.4B – $75.1B$9.75$8.26 – $12.209
FY28$67.1B$50.0B – $75.8B$10.01$8.08 – $12.159
FY29$72.1B$60.3B – $79.6B$10.73$8.45 – $12.184
FY30$74.7B$62.5B – $82.5B$11.75$9.25 – $13.344

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.2×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.100%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+11.2%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+23.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMega float · 1.2B shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.6% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.135-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 21Andrew D LundquistPresident9.5K sh$1.3MSellAug 20Rose Kelly BrunettiSVP & General Counsel15.0K sh$2.0MSellJun 10Sharmila MulliganDirector2.0K sh$235K
+ 5 other (5 awards) in window

See when $COP insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 83
AI summary

Greig Patterson, VP and Controller at ConocoPhillips (COP), filed a Form 3 disclosing his initial beneficial ownership of company securities. The full holdings detail is in the filed form; this is a routine Section 16 insider reporting disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 83
AI summary

Khoa M. Dao, SVP at ConocoPhillips (COP), filed a Form 3 disclosing his initial beneficial ownership of company securities. The full holdings detail is in the filed form; this is a routine Section 16 insider reporting disclosure.

3New insider — initial holdingsSep 23
AI summary

Shannon Browning Kinney, SVP & General Counsel of ConocoPhillips (COP), filed an initial Form 3 statement of beneficial ownership as of September 1, 2026, disclosing no securities beneficially owned — no common stock, no derivative instruments. Routine Section 16(a) administrative filing upon assuming officer-level status at a major integrated oil company.

8-KOfficer or director changeAug 118-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

ConocoPhillips (COP) disclosed a significant leadership succession effective September 1, 2026: Andrew (Andy) M. O'Brien, currently Executive Vice President for Strategy, Commercial, and CFO, will become President and Chief Executive Officer and join the Board, while long-tenured CEO Ryan M. Lance will retire from operating leadership and assume the role of Executive Chair. Simultaneously, Kontessa S. Haynes-Welsh advances from Vice President, Finance and Controller to Senior Vice President and CFO, and Greig Patterson steps up to VP, Finance and Controller. As one of the world's largest independent oil and gas producers with major positions in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and LNG, ConocoPhillips' CEO transition — from a founder-era leader to a CFO-turned-CEO — is material news that investors will watch for any signal of shifts in capital return policy, M&A appetite, or strategic direction.

S-3ASRAuto-shelf registrationJun 30S-3ASR
AI summary

ConocoPhillips filed an automatic shelf registration (Form S-3ASR) for various securities including debt, equity, preferred shares, warrants, depositary shares, and prepaid forward purchase contracts. Large accelerated filer with well-known seasoned issuer status. Routine shelf enabling flexible capital markets access; no immediate offering was announced.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 238-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

Delaware 001-32395 01-0562944 reported departure or retirement of an officer: No.) 925 N. Eldridge Parkway Houston , Texas 77079 (Address of principal executive offices and zip code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: ( 281 ) 293-1000 Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions: ¨ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under th.

8-KShareholder voteMay 148-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

ConocoPhillips held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on May 12, 2026, with 1,218,853,041 shares outstanding as of the record date. All 13 nominated directors were elected to one-year terms. All other annual meeting proposals are reported in the filing. Routine annual meeting governance disclosure for one of the world's largest independent oil and gas producers.

+ 11 other (4 S-8 POSs · 2 10-Qs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 SD) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Will ConocoPhillips (COP) Gain on Rising Earnings Estimates?zacks.com·14h agoHere's Why ConocoPhillips (COP) is a Strong Momentum Stockzacks.com·17h agoCohen Klingenstein LLC Buys 39,400 Shares of ConocoPhillips $COPdefenseworld.net·23h agoWall Street Analysts Think ConocoPhillips (COP) Is a Good Investment: Is It?zacks.com·2d agoConocoPhillips $COP Stock: Krilogy Financial LLC Increases Stakedefenseworld.net·2d ago

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Voices on X · top 2 · last 7 days

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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