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VIVIST

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 102% YoY at strong marginsStreet coverage with positive forward estimatesQuiet on X (58 mentions/wk)
$VIST·$7.0B·Oil & Gas Exploration & Production·Energy
$66.91-0.8%YTD+44.5%1Y+89.0%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 1d ago
VIVIST
$VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
$66.91-0.77%58 posts0.9×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

The complete picture of $VIST on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

58X posts · last 7 days
Sep 11Sep 27
Chatter Meter
0.9×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $VIST's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data5 posts analyzed · as of 2026-09-07

Vista Energy surged after JPMorgan raised PT to $94 (Overweight) citing accelerated Vaca Muerta production growth. Q2 2026 revenue $1.15B (+89% YoY) with $805M adjusted EBITDA (+99% YoY, 70% margin). Peter Thiel disclosed a position — a top oil-play for the market.

Read what X is saying about $VIST

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $VIST — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Proven numbersAcceleratingAI verdict · as of 2026-09-27

The move is getting stronger, with heavier trading behind it.

Vista Energy is the Vaca Muerta oil pure-play running at 89% revenue growth — Peter Thiel and JPMorgan are both in.

Vista Energy is a US-listed Argentine oil producer with concentrated exposure to Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale — one of the world's largest untapped shale basins. The equity has ripped on production-cycle math finally landing.

  • Growth is spectacular: revenue grew 102% YoY last quarter to $1.23B and Q2 hit $1.10B with 43% operating margin — a scaled shale producer running growth-cycle math at scale, with Vaca Muerta production visibility.
  • The valuation is inexpensive for the growth: 8.6x earnings and 2.2x sales on a business with 31% ROE and a 47% free-cash-flow-yield-accreting profile — priced like a mid-cap E&P, not the shale-basin-defining pure play it actually is.
  • The credentialed institutional buyers align: Peter Thiel disclosed a position and JPMorgan raised the PT to $94 Overweight — two substantive institutional signals in one window on a name already up 82% year-on-year.

The Oct 28 print is the arbiter: any raise to 2027 Vaca Muerta production plus commentary on Argentine-oil-export capacity extends the tape toward the $94 JPM target; a soft realized-price number or Argentine-macro headline is where a 82%-one-year-gain name gives back some of the run. The Q2 24% EPS miss (on production-timing) is the reason to watch the print itself.

Agrees with X sentimentAligned that the JPMorgan raise and Peter Thiel disclosure are real institutional tells and the Vaca Muerta scaling is a genuine multi-year re-rating — the 70% adjusted EBITDA margin is what a scaled shale producer looks like when the basin economics work.

What to watch: Oct 28 earnings — 2027 Vaca Muerta production guide, Argentine oil-export capacity commentary, realized-price color, and any capital-return updates. A production raise plus export capacity extends the tape; a soft realized-price number is the pause trigger.

On the calendar: 2026-10-28 — Q3 earnings

beta missing

Read the AI verdict on $VIST

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Fastest-growing Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas operator in Argentina, rapidly scaling production through horizontal well drilling.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $VIST.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · Energy

No material change from last week — Oil retreats as Macron calls G7 to release strategic reserves, trimming the geopolitical premium added by Houthi Red Sea seizure.

What this means for $VIST

Neutral — Fastest-growing Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas operator in Argentina, rapidly scaling production through horizontal well drilling.

Industry benchmark

27-name peer basket
+41.0%YTD
+26.0%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
8.6How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
12.9%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
42.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
3.8%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
2.2Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
31.0%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
49.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 16, 2026$2.38$3.15-24.4%
Q1 2026Apr 29, 2026$0.89$1.42-37.3%
Q4 2025Feb 25, 2026$0.80$1.12-28.7%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$1.48$1.24+19.4%
Next earningsWed, Oct 28·consensus EPS $2.70

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q2 FY26$1.2B+102.3%57.4%44.2%$3.06$484.8M
Q1 FY26$865.0M+97.3%54.6%25.0%$1.03$-252.6M
Q4 FY25$719.1M+52.6%47.4%29.7%$0.82$-62.5M
Q3 FY25$706.1M+52.7%30.6%75.8%$3.02$-31.6M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 6 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$4.0B$3.8B – $4.2B$8.60$7.27 – $9.454
FY27$4.2B$4.0B – $4.4B$8.70$6.80 – $9.816
FY28$4.6B$4.4B – $4.9B$10.20$9.47 – $10.822
FY29$4.6B$4.4B – $4.8B$9.15$8.50 – $9.704
FY30$4.9B$4.7B – $5.2B$9.91$9.21 – $10.523

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.70%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-4.4%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+3.7%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 91.1M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.8% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β-0.465-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

No open-market buys or sells in the last 180 days.

+ 14 other (5 exempts · 4 returns · 4 inkinds · 1 other) in window

See when $VIST insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

SC 13D/AActivist amendmentAug 28SC 13D/A
AI summary

Vista Energy founder and CEO Miguel Galuccio filed an amended Schedule 13D disclosing beneficial ownership of 6,739,892 Series A shares and ADRs of Vista Energy, plus options, representing approximately 6.1% of outstanding shares. The amendment updates the prior 13D to reflect changes in his holdings. Galuccio retains shared and sole voting and dispositive power over various portions of the position. As founder and CEO, this filing reflects ongoing alignment between management and shareholders.

+ 32 other (30 6-Ks · 1 13G · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Vista Energy: The Cash Engine Is Onseekingalpha.com·4d agoVista Energy's 2026 Outlook: Shale Expansion Drives 70% Adjusted EBITDA Marginsfool.com·11d agoVista Stock Surges as Crude Tops $100 Again: What's Happening?benzinga.com·19d agoTCW White Oak Emerging Markets Equity Fund Q2 2026 Contributors And Detractorsseekingalpha.com·21d agoPeter Thiel's Fund Reported Zero Stocks for 2 Straight Quarters. Its $419 Million Comeback Put 72% Into Energy and Power.fool.com·30d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $VIST on X in the last 7 days.

TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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