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CMCME

CME Group Inc.

Strong FundamentalsStrong FundamentalsRevenue growing 14% YoY at strong marginsRecent insider buyingConsistent chatter on X (917/wk), no spike
$CME·$87B·Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges·Financial Services
$246.27+0.4%YTD-9.5%1Y-11.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-10: 196 posts2026-07-11: 71 posts2026-07-12: 129 posts2026-07-13: 185 posts2026-07-14: 51 posts2026-07-15: 43 posts2026-07-16: 38 posts731+6%
Price updated 10h ago·X counts updated 9h ago
CMCME
$CMECME Group Inc.
$246.27+0.44%731 posts+6%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $CME, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

CME just launched Tesla and SpaceX futures — quality exchange operator ahead of a July 22 print.

CME Group operates the largest derivatives exchange in the world — interest rate, equity index, energy, and metals futures where global institutions hedge risk. The stock is down 10% over the past year on the prediction-markets threat and a soft Q4 print, and now heading into a July 22 earnings release.

  • Revenue grew 14% YoY to $1.6B last quarter with a 70% operating margin — the operating leverage on incremental volume is enormous, and Q1 volumes accelerating puts the FY26 setup back on track.
  • Trades at 22x TTM earnings and 14x sales — reasonable multiple for a wide-moat exchange with a 65% operating margin, and the compression from the sector's peak has already happened.
  • Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX futures contracts launching July 27 are a real product-catalyst — the meme-adjacent products are meaningful volume drivers if they take off, and the setup pairs with the earnings print.
  • The CFTC blocking the 24/7 crude-oil futures plan is a real regulatory setback — CME thought the self-certification path was clear; the CFTC saying 'wholly inappropriate' means the initiative needs to be resubmitted or pivoted.
  • 52-week position 24th percentile — the tape has been badly beaten up despite the fundamental strength, which creates asymmetry on a clean Q2 print.

July 22 Q2 earnings is the catalyst: revenue growth held above 12% plus Q3 volume commentary reflecting rate-hedging demand is what confirms the recovery; a modest print or the CFTC 24/7 setback continuing to drag is where the tape stays coiled at $245. Real wide-moat exchange at a reasonable price — the setup rewards a beat and the Tesla/SpaceX product-launch tailwind arrives right after.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bullish X take on CME as 'a screaming buy' in the BTC/CRCL context and the Iran-war-hedging angle is analytically fair — CME is the natural beneficiary of any risk-management demand spike. The CFTC 24/7 setback is a real overhang the crowd is under-weighting.

What to watch: July 22 Q2 earnings — need revenue growth above 12% and Q3 volume commentary reflecting rate-hedging demand. A modest print or continued CFTC 24/7 drag is where the tape stays coiled.

On the calendar: 2026-07-22 — Q2 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment7 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-15

CME Group chatter is bullish. CFTC Chair Selig called CME's 24/7 crude oil futures self-certification 'wholly inappropriate' - a headline but manageable. CME Group announced Treasury Link for US Treasury spread trading between cash and futures markets - a positive product-development catalyst. Bulls call CME 'a screaming buy' in the context of BTC/CRCL & stablecoins per All Star Charts commentary. Community sees CME benefiting from any Iran-war-related hedging. Prediction markets hurting traditional derivatives volume 'so far, CME Group would say no.' Community broadly long.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $CME

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Operates the world's largest derivatives exchange for futures and options on rates, equity indexes, energy, and commodities.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $CME.

Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges · Financial Services

No material change from last week — COIN's Kalshi acquisition and Bitcoin ETF expansion validate a new institutional market structure for digital assets.

What this means for $CME

Direct beneficiary — Operates the world's largest derivatives exchange for futures and options on rates, equity indexes, energy, and commodities; the business model is a direct conduit for the institutional crypto ETF expansion and retail trading volume.

Industry benchmark

6-name peer basket
-6.0%YTD
-9.9%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
21.8How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
9.4%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
65.6%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
4.6%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
13.8Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
15.3%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
86.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.1Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 22, 2026$3.36$3.34+0.6%
Q4 2025Feb 4, 2026$2.77$2.75+0.7%
Q3 2025Oct 22, 2025$2.68$2.63+1.9%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$2.96$2.91+1.7%
Next earningsWed, Jul 22·consensus EPS $2.98

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.9B+14.5%88.1%69.7%$3.25$1.2B
Q4 FY25$1.6B+8.1%85.4%61.8%$3.25$1.1B
Q3 FY25$1.5B-3.0%84.5%63.3%$2.49$949.7M
Q2 FY25$1.7B+10.4%86.9%66.7%$2.81$1.0B

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$7.0B$6.9B – $7.1B$12.20$11.84 – $12.5511
FY27$7.3B$7.0B – $7.7B$12.82$11.87 – $13.6411
FY28$7.8B$7.8B – $7.8B$13.73$13.09 – $14.218
FY29$8.4B$8.2B – $8.7B$15.06$14.40 – $15.567
FY30$8.7B$8.4B – $8.9B$15.70$15.02 – $16.237

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.25%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-5.7%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-11.8%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatHigh float · 357.3M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.7% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β0.285-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

BuyJun 25William R ShepardDirector339 sh$78KSellMay 18Piell Hilda HarrisSr MD & Chief HR Officer5.8K sh$1.8MSellMay 15Terrence A DuffyCEO35.0K sh$10.4MBuyMar 26William R ShepardDirector1.5K sh$437KSellMar 17Jonathan L MarcusSr MD General Counsel3.3K sh$1.0MSellMar 17Jonathan L MarcusSr MD General Counsel3.3K sh$1.1MSellMar 12Ken VromanChief Transformation Officer5.2K sh$1.6MSellMar 6Elizabeth A CookDirector1.0K sh$320KSellFeb 23Bryan T DurkinDirector4.2K sh$1.3MSellFeb 20Martin J GepsmanDirector300 sh$92K
1–10 of 11
+ 42 other (29 awards · 11 inkinds · 1 other · 1 gift) in window

See when $CME insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
Free, forever. No credit card.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

CME Group Inc. filed an 8-K (Items 5.02, 7.01) dated June 16, 2026, reporting a director/officer change alongside Reg FD presentation materials. The excerpt contains only cover-page boilerplate with no officer names or presentation topic visible. The Reg FD filing suggests an investor presentation was shared, likely related to the leadership transition; this is routine unless the officer change involves a C-suite departure.

8-KShareholder voteJun 108-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CME Group reconvened its adjourned 2026 Annual Meeting on June 9, 2026 to address Items 4–8 that originally lacked quorum among Class B holders. Item 4 — a proposal to eliminate the right of Class B-1 shareholders to elect three directors — did not pass; Class B-3 shares failed to reach quorum again on Items 6 and 8c. CME's tiered Class B governance structure remains intact; the failed vote to curtail Class B-1 election rights signals that Class B holders are protecting their disproportionate board influence.

8-KShareholder voteMay 198-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

CME Group held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 14, 2026, with 318.5 million shares (87.78% of Classes A and B) represented. Equity director nominees were elected (including Terrence Duffy with 267.9M for), but Class B-1, B-2, B-3, and B-4 shareholders all failed to reach the required 33.3% quorum threshold (Class B-3 participation was as low as 24.16%). As a result, proposals 4-8 were adjourned to a special meeting scheduled for June 9, 2026. The adjournment signals meaningfully low Class B shareholder engagement and defers important governance items specific to CME's exchange membership structure.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 278-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

CME entered into a amendment (8-K Item 1.01, dated 2026-04-27). Counterparty: Bank of America, N.A., in its capacity as Administrative Agent, Citibank, N.A.. Size: approximately $7 billion. Material definitive agreement — investors should review the full exhibit for covenants, conditions, and use of proceeds.

8-KPress release / Reg FDFeb 28-K — Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
+ 15 other (5 proxys · 3 13Gs · 2 earnings 8-Ks · 1 10-Q) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

CME Group (CME) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Releasezacks.com·2d ago"Compute Is the New Oil": Kalshi Just Launched a Way to Bet on the Future Price of AI Computing Power247wallst.com·2d agoFrom Love Island to Precious Metals: How Prediction Markets Are Changing Financepymnts.com·7d agoCFTC to block CME's plan for 24/7 crude oil futures tradingreuters.com·8d agoCME Group Is Launching Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX Futures Contracts on July 27. Here's the Investment Case.fool.com·8d ago

In themes

Explore the broader themes this ticker is being talked about under.

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