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AXAXTI

AXT, Inc.

$AXTI·$3.4B·Semiconductors·Technology
$51.47-11.1%YTD+236.7%1Y+944.0%
Price updated 7h ago·X counts updated 5d ago
AXAXTI
$AXTIAXT, Inc.
$51.47-11.12%1.1k posts1.3×
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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On X

Top X posts

The complete picture of $AXTI on X — how loud the conversation is right now, how it has trended over the last two weeks, and which way the crowd is leaning.

1,106X posts · last 7 days
Sep 29Oct 11
Chatter Meter
1.3×
QuietNormal · 1×Loud

How loud $AXTI's conversation on X is versus its own normal — 1× is typical, higher means busier. Right now it's about its usual level, louder than 92% of tracked names.

Bullish sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data14 posts analyzed · as of 2026-10-02

X is bullish on AXT as the InP substrate play — the stock is up 1,500% since October 2025 after breaking out of a wedge, and the current indium-phosphide supply/demand gap already exceeds 70%, with Chinese InP makers hardening price language. Longs are watching $77 as support with $80 the trigger before $90 and $100. The only pullback talk is a technician adding on undercut-reclaim rather than any directional dissent.

Read what X is saying about $AXTI

  • Bullish vs bearish call — with the AI summary of the day's posts
  • Divergence flag when the top-engagement posts argue the other side
  • How loud the conversation is versus this ticker's own normal
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AI verdictAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

TickerTalks' own read on what's driving $AXTI — fundamentals, momentum, or an event — and whether it agrees with the X crowd.

Driven by hypeWinding up for a moveAI verdict · as of 2026-10-03

Trading in a tight range and building pressure — a move looks likely soon, but the direction isn't clear yet.

An indium-phosphide substrate maker riding a legitimate supply shortage — up 400% YTD and now the market needs the quarter.

AXT makes the specialty semiconductor substrates — mainly indium phosphide (InP) — that enable high-speed optical transceivers used in AI data-center networking. The InP shortage is quantifiable (>70% supply/demand gap) and the Chinese price-hardening confirms a real cycle.

  • The fundamentals have finally caught up to the thesis: revenue grew 39% YoY last quarter and the +164% EPS surprise says management is converting the supply-tight market into actual earnings — a shift from story to numbers that's rare at these multiples.
  • Operating margin is still slightly negative at -5.9% because the ramp is early, but with the InP gap this wide and Chinese pricing firming, the next couple of quarters are the window for margin to flip meaningfully positive.

After +399% YTD and sitting at 59% of its 52-week range, the setup is a classic coil near prior highs into Oct 29 earnings. A clean beat with margin flipping positive is the trigger; any sign of Chinese InP capacity coming back online or soft gross-margin color is where the squeeze piece unwinds.

Agrees with X sentimentThe bull thesis on InP supply/demand is well-supported, and the lack of visible dissent on X isn't just groupthink — the data (supply gap, Chinese prices, +164% EPS surprise) is unusually clean. The 'undercut-reclaim' technician framing matches a coiling read.

What to watch: Oct 29 Q3 earnings — operating margin trajectory (positive flip is the trigger), InP pricing commentary, and Chinese capacity updates. A margin flip positive is continuation; any Chinese capacity signal is where the squeeze thesis cracks.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

event ahead 30dsupply squeeze

Read the AI verdict on $AXTI

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • Whether TickerTalks' read agrees with or diverges from the X crowd
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes gallium arsenide, indium phosphide, and germanium substrate wafers for optoelectronics and RF semiconductor applications.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AXTI.

Semiconductors · Technology

No material change from last week — hyperscaler AI capex remains the structural driver with Blackwell supply still packaging-constrained. Jensen Huang publicly named memory bandwidth as AI's next bottleneck, reinforcing HBM3e pricing power. AVGO custom ASIC demand broadens AI beneficiaries beyond NVDA's GPU allocation.

What this means for $AXTI

Partial — Makes gallium arsenide, indium phosphide, and germanium substrate wafers for optoelectronics and RF semiconductor applications.; auto/industrial analog mix has limited direct AI capex exposure but benefits from overall fab utilization tightening.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+64.5%YTD
+57.2%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-337.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-3.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-13.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-0.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
43.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
21.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.19$0.07+164.0%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$-0.01$-0.04+75.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-0.05$-0.04-25.0%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$-0.03$-0.11+72.7%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.31

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$26.9M+39.1%29.6%-5.9%$-0.03$-13.1M
Q4 FY25$23.0M-8.2%20.9%-16.6%$-0.08$1.3M
Q3 FY25$28.0M+18.2%22.3%-4.0%$-0.04$-11.3M
Q2 FY25$18.0M-35.6%8.0%-37.5%$-0.16$-4.9M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$221.2M$219.1M – $222.4M$0.86$0.81 – $0.914
FY27$482.5M$459.5M – $498.8M$2.22$1.93 – $2.633
FY28$786.3M$690.7M – $855.2M$3.29$3.02 – $3.533
FY29$1.3B$1.2B – $1.4B$0.00$0.00 – $0.001
FY30$1.4B$1.3B – $1.5B$0.00$0.00 – $0.002

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.1.3×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.34%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-27.3%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.-18.4%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 61.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today18.3% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.865-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Leonard J LeblancDirector4.0K sh$384KSellAug 7Leonard J LeblancDirector2.0K sh$177KSellJun 15Jesse ChenDirector6.2K sh$711KSellJun 15David C ChangDirector8.3K sh$926KSellJun 12Jesse ChenDirector13.0K sh$1.2MSellJun 11Jesse ChenDirector9.0K sh$797KSellJun 10Leonard J LeblancDirector500 sh$45KSellJun 10Jesse ChenDirector9.0K sh$781KSellJun 9Jesse ChenDirector1.5K sh$140KSellJun 8Jesse ChenDirector6.0K sh$564K
1–10 of 14
+ 7 other (3 awards · 2 gifts · 2 exempts) in window

See when $AXTI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

AXT Inc. and Lumentum Operations LLC entered into a Capacity Reservation Agreement on July 26, 2026, under which AXT will supply indium phosphide (InP) wafer substrates to Lumentum under a minimum annual production commitment for six years. As part of the agreement, Lumentum will make deposit payments totaling $43.5 million upfront and an additional $43.5 million upon meeting volume milestones, in exchange for capacity reservation rights. The InP wafers are used in photonic and optical components for datacenter, telecom, and emerging AI-infrastructure applications. For AXT, the deal provides long-term revenue visibility and funds capital investment in InP production capacity; for Lumentum, it secures a critical upstream substrate supply amid constrained global InP wafer supply.

8-KCharter amendmentJul 298-K — Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

AXT, Inc. amended its bylaws on or around July 26, 2026 to reduce the quorum required for stockholder meetings from a majority of shares to 33⅓% of outstanding shares, reported under Items 3.03 and 5.03 of Form 8-K. This reduction lowers the threshold needed to conduct valid stockholder business, making it easier to achieve quorum particularly as institutional ownership patterns have shifted. The bylaw change is a governance mechanics update and does not affect AXT's substantive business operations or capital structure. The amended bylaw provision is attached as an exhibit to the filing.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 273
AI summary

Jia-bin Duh, a Director of AXT Inc. (AXTI; Fremont, CA), filed an initial Form 3 on July 27, 2026 reporting direct beneficial ownership of 2,500 shares and 667 shares of AXT common stock (likely two separate restricted stock grants), effective July 16, 2026. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership disclosure from a newly appointed board member with no material investment significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 228-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AXT, Inc. expanded its board from five to six directors and elected Jia-Bin Duh as an independent Class III director effective July 16, 2026, with a term expiring at the 2028 annual meeting. Duh brings 30+ years of senior executive experience in Greater China, including as President of Cisco Systems China (1998–2005) and President of Microsoft China (1993–1998), and currently serves as Director of Primax Electronics. He will join the audit, compensation, and nominating committees under the company's standard non-employee director compensation policy. Routine board expansion that adds deep Asia-Pacific tech industry expertise.

8-KDebt-obligation accelerationJul 88-K — Item 2.04: Debt-obligation acceleration
AI summary

AXT, Inc.'s (AXTI) majority-controlled subsidiary Tongmei Xtal Technology withdrew its STAR Market IPO application on June 26, 2026 (accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 8, 2026), triggering redemption rights for 11 Chinese private equity funds that invested an aggregate RMB 324,404,508 (~$49 million USD) in connection with the STAR Market listing process. AXT/Tongmei will now pursue a Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing emphasizing the indium phosphide (InP) business for AI data center applications rather than the GaAs focus of the STAR application. The ~$49M potential redemption obligation is a material contingent liability now triggered, though each fund retains discretion over whether to exercise its right.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

AXT-Tongmei (AXT subsidiary) and Coherent Corp entered a Master Development and Supply Agreement effective June 25, 2026 for 6-inch indium phosphide wafer substrates over an initial 3-year term. AXT committed to expand manufacturing capacity at its Beijing facility through 2028 with committed delivery schedules. This is a material, long-duration supply contract validating AXT's InP substrate business with a major photonics customer.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 243
AI summary

Tracy Liu filed a Form 3 as a newly appointed director of AXT Inc. (AXTI), disclosing initial beneficial ownership of 3,226 shares — 2,500 restricted shares and 726 shares from a prorated annual equity grant, both vesting May 14, 2027 subject to continuous service. The reporting event date was June 17, 2026. This is routine Section 16 initialization following a board appointment; the position size is immaterial to the share count but satisfies disclosure requirements.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 228-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AXT, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from four to five members on June 17, 2026 by electing Tracy D. Liu as a Class II independent director (term expires at the 2028 annual meeting). Liu has over 30 years of tax and accounting advisory experience, currently serves as CEO of HM CPA Services P.C. and has chaired ACM Research's audit committee since 2016. She will serve on AXT's audit, compensation, and nominating/governance committees, and will receive an initial grant of 2,500 restricted shares plus a prorated 726-share annual equity grant, both vesting May 14, 2027. Routine board expansion for a compound semiconductor substrate manufacturer.

+ 22 other (8 13Gs · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 8-Ks · 2 10-Qs) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

AXT's Inventory Rises Sharply: Will Working Capital Pressure Grow?zacks.com·4d agoAXT Inc (AXTI) Stock Down 9.5% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 59/100gurufocus.com·4d ago11 Stocks Most Likely to See a Short Squeeze Rallyschaeffersresearch.com·5d agoAXTI Stock Rises 21% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?zacks.com·10d agoCan Surging InP Demand Strengthen AXT's Long-Term Growth Potential?zacks.com·12d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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