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AXAXTI

AXT, Inc.

$AXTI·$4.5B·Semiconductors·Technology
$60.61+3.4%YTD+279.5%1Y+1747.9%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-08-22: 43 posts2026-08-23: 53 posts2026-08-24: 94 posts767+5%
Price updated 8h ago·X counts updated 7d ago
AXAXTI
$AXTIAXT, Inc.
$60.61+3.38%767 posts+5%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AXTI, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Driven by hypeCooling offAI verdict · as of 2026-08-30

Catching its breath after a run — could pick back up or fade from here.

Indium phosphide substrates are the AI-photonics supply chain's tiny bottleneck — the tape has ripped, and today's -12% is the cost.

AXT is a small-cap compound-semiconductor materials company whose indium-phosphide (InP) wafers go into the optical transceivers that power AI-data-center interconnects. It's up nearly 3.8x YTD and roughly 20x over twelve months — one of the sharpest specialty-materials runs in the market — and today's -12% is a very fast digestion of that move.

  • The revenue base is very small: quarterly revenue ran $18M, $28M, $23M, $27M, gross margin sits in the low 20s, and EPS is still negative — analysts model just $143M of full-year revenue and $0.30 EPS, so at $58 the equity is priced far above the current run rate, riding on the next InP capacity ramp.
  • The customer-lock story is real: AXT and Lumentum just signed a Capacity Reservation Agreement for 6-inch InP wafers, and hedge funds Goldman tracks disclosed AXTI adds in Q2 — this is the kind of deal that converts a research-supplier relationship into recurring revenue tied to Lumentum's transceiver ramp.
  • The bylaw change is unusual: AXT lowered its quorum requirement from a majority of shares to one-third — that's a small governance flag worth watching, and paired with the sheer size of the recent move it means insider action or a strategic transaction announcement can move the tape violently in either direction.

An Oct 29 print that shows quarterly revenue crossing $35M+ with margin drifting toward 30% is what defends the current tape; another quarter closer to $27M with margin flat is the setup where the +279% YTD trims fast, and a -12% day is a preview of what that looks like.

Agrees with X sentimentX's bullish framing gets the mechanics right — the InP-shortage/1.6T-optics tie-in and the Goldman hedge-fund adds are real — but the '$250 in a violent second ramp' framing skips over that current quarterly revenue is still ~$27M against a $4.5B cap.

What to watch: The Oct 29 print — quarterly revenue toward $35M+, gross margin toward 30%, and any incremental capacity-reservation announcements. A flat quarter is what tests the recent multiple hardest.

On the calendar: 2026-10-29 — Q3 earnings

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment63 posts analyzed · as of 2026-08-31

Sentiment is aggressively bullish, with the crowd treating AXTI as a core AI-optics pick. Holders point to the $87M Lumentum InP capacity reservation through 2031, InP substrate revenue up 154%, and NVDA's supply-constrained commentary as proof the structural bottleneck is real. Long-term targets of $175 to $278 dominate. A vocal minority calls for a technical Wave-C flush toward $30-$35, but most are DCA-ing the recent pullback.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AXTI

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  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Makes gallium arsenide, indium phosphide, and germanium substrate wafers for optoelectronics and RF semiconductor applications.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Semiconductors sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AXTI.

Semiconductors · Technology

Hyperscaler AI capex keeps Blackwell allocation tight and HBM3e pricing firm; NVDA's data-center backlog and AVGO's networking wins confirm the cycle is not peaking. LLM context-window expansion — the structural demand pull — extends through at least 2H26.

What this means for $AXTI

Direct beneficiary — semiconductor products are directly in the AI capex supply chain; AXT, Inc.

Top industry ETF

$SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF
+56.0%YTD
+94.3%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-337.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-3.2%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-13.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-0.7%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
43.1Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
-6.2%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
21.3%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
0.3Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 30, 2026$0.19$0.07+164.0%
Q1 2026Apr 30, 2026$-0.01$-0.04+75.0%
Q4 2025Feb 19, 2026$-0.05$-0.04-25.0%
Q3 2025Oct 30, 2025$-0.03$-0.11+72.7%
Next earningsThu, Oct 29·consensus EPS $0.31

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$26.9M+39.1%29.6%-5.9%$-0.03$-13.1M
Q4 FY25$23.0M-8.2%20.9%-16.6%$-0.08$1.3M
Q3 FY25$28.0M+18.2%22.3%-4.0%$-0.04$-11.3M
Q2 FY25$18.0M-35.6%8.0%-37.5%$-0.16$-4.9M

Forward consensus

3-year forecast · up to 4 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$143.1M$137.4M – $146.6M$0.30$0.25 – $0.334
FY27$222.4M$215.2M – $233.2M$0.78$0.55 – $1.114
FY28$382.1M$331.6M – $432.6M$1.80$1.62 – $2.012

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.41%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-6.0%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+12.9%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatLow float · 42.6M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today14.9% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.935-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellAug 17Leonard J LeblancDirector4.0K sh$384KSellAug 7Leonard J LeblancDirector2.0K sh$177KSellJun 15Jesse ChenDirector6.2K sh$711KSellJun 15David C ChangDirector8.3K sh$926KSellJun 12Jesse ChenDirector13.0K sh$1.2MSellJun 11Jesse ChenDirector9.0K sh$797KSellJun 10Leonard J LeblancDirector500 sh$45KSellJun 10Jesse ChenDirector9.0K sh$781KSellJun 9Jesse ChenDirector1.5K sh$140KSellJun 8Jesse ChenDirector6.0K sh$564K
1–10 of 29
+ 7 other (3 awards · 2 gifts · 2 exempts) in window

See when $AXTI insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

8-KMaterial agreementJul 298-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

AXT Inc. and Lumentum Operations LLC entered into a Capacity Reservation Agreement on July 26, 2026, under which AXT will supply indium phosphide (InP) wafer substrates to Lumentum under a minimum annual production commitment for six years. As part of the agreement, Lumentum will make deposit payments totaling $43.5 million upfront and an additional $43.5 million upon meeting volume milestones, in exchange for capacity reservation rights. The InP wafers are used in photonic and optical components for datacenter, telecom, and emerging AI-infrastructure applications. For AXT, the deal provides long-term revenue visibility and funds capital investment in InP production capacity; for Lumentum, it secures a critical upstream substrate supply amid constrained global InP wafer supply.

8-KCharter amendmentJul 298-K — Item 3.03 · Item 5.03: Charter amendment
AI summary

AXT, Inc. amended its bylaws on or around July 26, 2026 to reduce the quorum required for stockholder meetings from a majority of shares to 33⅓% of outstanding shares, reported under Items 3.03 and 5.03 of Form 8-K. This reduction lowers the threshold needed to conduct valid stockholder business, making it easier to achieve quorum particularly as institutional ownership patterns have shifted. The bylaw change is a governance mechanics update and does not affect AXT's substantive business operations or capital structure. The amended bylaw provision is attached as an exhibit to the filing.

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 273
AI summary

Jia-bin Duh, a Director of AXT Inc. (AXTI; Fremont, CA), filed an initial Form 3 on July 27, 2026 reporting direct beneficial ownership of 2,500 shares and 667 shares of AXT common stock (likely two separate restricted stock grants), effective July 16, 2026. This is a routine Section 16 initial ownership disclosure from a newly appointed board member with no material investment significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeJul 228-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change
AI summary

AXT, Inc. expanded its board from five to six directors and elected Jia-Bin Duh as an independent Class III director effective July 16, 2026, with a term expiring at the 2028 annual meeting. Duh brings 30+ years of senior executive experience in Greater China, including as President of Cisco Systems China (1998–2005) and President of Microsoft China (1993–1998), and currently serves as Director of Primax Electronics. He will join the audit, compensation, and nominating committees under the company's standard non-employee director compensation policy. Routine board expansion that adds deep Asia-Pacific tech industry expertise.

8-KDebt-obligation accelerationJul 88-K — Item 2.04: Debt-obligation acceleration
AI summary

AXT, Inc.'s (AXTI) majority-controlled subsidiary Tongmei Xtal Technology withdrew its STAR Market IPO application on June 26, 2026 (accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 8, 2026), triggering redemption rights for 11 Chinese private equity funds that invested an aggregate RMB 324,404,508 (~$49 million USD) in connection with the STAR Market listing process. AXT/Tongmei will now pursue a Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing emphasizing the indium phosphide (InP) business for AI data center applications rather than the GaAs focus of the STAR application. The ~$49M potential redemption obligation is a material contingent liability now triggered, though each fund retains discretion over whether to exercise its right.

8-KMaterial agreementJul 28-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement
AI summary

AXT-Tongmei (AXT subsidiary) and Coherent Corp entered a Master Development and Supply Agreement effective June 25, 2026 for 6-inch indium phosphide wafer substrates over an initial 3-year term. AXT committed to expand manufacturing capacity at its Beijing facility through 2028 with committed delivery schedules. This is a material, long-duration supply contract validating AXT's InP substrate business with a major photonics customer.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 243
AI summary

Tracy Liu filed a Form 3 as a newly appointed director of AXT Inc. (AXTI), disclosing initial beneficial ownership of 3,226 shares — 2,500 restricted shares and 726 shares from a prorated annual equity grant, both vesting May 14, 2027 subject to continuous service. The reporting event date was June 17, 2026. This is routine Section 16 initialization following a board appointment; the position size is immaterial to the share count but satisfies disclosure requirements.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 228-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

AXT, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from four to five members on June 17, 2026 by electing Tracy D. Liu as a Class II independent director (term expires at the 2028 annual meeting). Liu has over 30 years of tax and accounting advisory experience, currently serves as CEO of HM CPA Services P.C. and has chaired ACM Research's audit committee since 2016. She will serve on AXT's audit, compensation, and nominating/governance committees, and will receive an initial grant of 2,500 restricted shares plus a prorated 726-share annual equity grant, both vesting May 14, 2027. Routine board expansion for a compound semiconductor substrate manufacturer.

+ 25 other (7 13Gs · 4 proxys · 3 earnings 8-Ks · 3 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

AXT: Correction Has Provided An Opportunity For Speculative Investors - Buy (Rating Upgrade)seekingalpha.com·20h agoAXT: AI Driven InP Demand Makes The Valuation Worth The Riskseekingalpha.com·4d agoAXT's Supply Agreements Expand: Can They Strengthen Revenue Growth?zacks.com·5d agoHere's Why AXT (AXTI) Is a Great 'Buy the Bottom' Stock Nowzacks.com·7d agoAXTI vs. ASYS: Which AI Semiconductor Stock Is the Better Buy Now?zacks.com·11d ago

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Voices on X · top 15 · last 7 days

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