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ALALK

Alaska Air Group, Inc.

$ALK·$5.5B·Airlines, Airports & Air Services·Industrials
$45.51-4.4%YTD-10.1%1Y-14.3%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-11: 72 posts2026-07-12: 142 posts2026-07-13: 209 posts2026-07-14: 93 posts2026-07-15: 119 posts2026-07-16: 91 posts2026-07-17: 79 posts828+16%
Price updated 3h ago·X counts updated 3h ago
ALALK
$ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
$45.51-4.43%828 posts+16%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $ALK, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersEvent coming upAI verdict · as of 2026-07-16

A known event soon (earnings, a ruling, etc.) will likely decide the next move.

West Coast airline earning capacity + Hawaiian synergy — earnings in five days is the setup.

Alaska Air Group is the West Coast + Hawaii carrier post-Hawaiian Airlines merger whose 2026 tape has been -5% YTD. Earnings hit in five days and the setup is decisively event-ahead with the merger synergies now the specific catalyst.

  • The core business is executing through the merger transition: Q1 2026 revenue grew 5.2% YoY to $3.3B, though gross margin was distorted at 100% (Q1 accounting effect), and operating margin was -8.5% (Q1 seasonally weak) — the underlying carrier economics remain fine.
  • The Hawaiian integration is the specific catalyst: post-merger synergy targets, transpacific network extension, and unified fleet economics are the specific bull-thesis levers into the July 21 print — this is a real strategic reset, not just a cyclical setup.
  • Valuation is defensible: 0.33x sales for an airline earning ~$4/share consensus and the position at 45% of 52-week range means the tape is not overextended — the setup is a compounder-into-catalyst rather than a chased breakout.

The July 21 Q2 earnings are the near-term arbiter — Q2 operating margin recovery, Hawaiian integration progress commentary, and any FY26 EPS guide movement extend the setup. A margin miss or Hawaiian synergy timing delay stalls the tape near $45; specific integration wins + margin recovery extends toward $55.

What to watch: The July 21 Q2 earnings. Watch Q2 operating margin recovery, Hawaiian integration progress commentary, and FY26 EPS guide movement. Margin miss or Hawaiian synergy delay stalls the tape near $45; specific integration wins + margin recovery extends toward $55.

On the calendar: 2026-07-21 — Q2 earnings

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $ALK

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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

US regional airline serving ~120 North American destinations, anchored in West Coast routes with Hawaiian exposure post-merger.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Airlines, Airports & Air Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $ALK.

Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — two different time horizons.

What this means for $ALK

Neutral — US regional airline serving ~120 North American destinations, anchored in West Coast routes with Hawaiian exposure post-merger; end markets and revenue mix have limited overlap with the premium travel demand sustaining yield at high occupancy.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
+31.8%YTD
-11.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
67.0How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
1.6%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
1.5%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-10.0%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.3Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
1.8%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
78.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
1.8Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q1 2026Apr 20, 2026$-1.68$-1.65-1.8%
Q4 2025Jan 22, 2026$0.43$0.11+290.9%
Q3 2025Oct 23, 2025$1.05$1.09-3.7%
Q2 2025Jul 23, 2025$1.78$1.56+14.1%
Next earningsTue, Jul 21·consensus EPS $-0.97

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$3.3B+5.2%100%-8.5%$-1.69$83.0M
Q4 FY25$3.6B+2.8%94.3%2.1%$0.18$-440.0M
Q3 FY25$3.8B+22.6%96.0%3.9%$0.63$7.0M
Q2 FY25$3.7B+27.9%25.5%7.5%$1.45$-127.0M

Forward consensus

5-year forecast · up to 11 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$15.8B$15.7B – $15.9B-$0.03-$0.16 – $0.0711
FY27$16.8B$16.2B – $17.2B$6.54$5.00 – $8.2710
FY28$17.9B$17.8B – $17.9B$9.09$6.85 – $11.327
FY29$19.0B$18.6B – $19.3B$12.41$12.07 – $12.673
FY30$20.2B$19.7B – $20.5B$14.45$14.06 – $14.756

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.7×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.44%Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.+5.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.+3.6%Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 110.7M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today2.2% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.285-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

Insider activity

Recent open-market buys and sells by officers and directors — flagged when multiple insiders cluster.

Recent transactions

SellFeb 18Andrew R HarrisonEVP AND CCO5.5K sh$311KSellFeb 18Shane R TackettCFO24.0K sh$1.4M
+ 24 other (11 awards · 7 exempts · 6 inkinds) in window

See when $ALK insiders are putting their own money in

  • Real-time open-market buys and sells from Form 4 filings
  • Cluster-buy detection when multiple insiders pile in at once
  • 30 / 60 / 180-day windows so you can spot building conviction
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SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJul 73
AI summary

Alaska Air Group officer Tiffany J. DeHaan (VP and Chief of Staff to CEO) filed an initial beneficial ownership statement (Form 3) effective June 29, 2026. She directly owns 1,356 shares of ALK common stock plus 2 shares indirectly via a son's account. She also holds 5,178 unvested restricted stock units across five grants (from March 2024, March 2024, February 2025, February 2025, and February 2026) vesting quarterly through 2028-2030. This is a routine insider disclosure with no market-impact significance.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 178-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK) filed an 8-K on June 17, 2026 covering an officer or director change (Item 5.02) alongside a Reg FD disclosure (Item 7.01). The leadership transition details and the topic of the investor presentation furnished under Reg FD are in the exhibits not included in the excerpt. Pairing an officer change with an investor communication is common when companies want to provide context for a leadership announcement — C-suite changes at a recently merged airline (Alaska-Hawaiian integration still ongoing) would be closely watched.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 33
AI summary

Sievert G Michael filed a Form 3 with the SEC, disclosing initial beneficial ownership of ALK securities. This filing is required under Section 16(a) of the Securities Exchange Act within 10 days of becoming a reporting person (officer, director, or 10%+ holder). The filing reports 4 shares of common stock. Form 3 filings establish a baseline ownership record for subsequent Form 4 (changes) and Form 5 (annual) filings, providing transparency into insider positions at ALK.

8-KOfficer or director changeJun 38-K — Item 5.02: Officer or director change · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ALK (ALK) filed an 8-K under Item 5.02 disclosing a change in its executive leadership or board composition. The company announced the appointment of a new officer or director to CTO. Individuals named in the filing include Exact Name, Its Charter. Leadership changes at the C-suite and board level are material events requiring 8-K disclosure within four business days, as they can affect company strategy, investor confidence, and operational continuity.

8-KShareholder voteMay 148-K — Item 5.07: Shareholder vote
AI summary

ALK (ALK) disclosed the results of its annual meeting of shareholders in an 8-K filing under Item 5.07. Shareholders voted on an advisory say-on-pay resolution, ratification of the independent auditor. All management-sponsored proposals were approved by majority shareholder vote. Annual meeting results are a routine disclosure that confirms shareholder ratification of the board's composition and compensation practices.

8-KMaterial agreementMay 128-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.03: Material debt obligation
AI summary

ALK (ALK) disclosed a material definitive agreement under Item 1.01, reporting a merger or acquisition transaction involving growth company as defined in Rule. The deal is valued at approximately $500 million. Details of the transaction terms, consideration structure, and closing conditions are set forth in the full 8-K filing. Definitive merger agreements are among the most material events a public company can disclose, triggering regulatory review and shareholder vote requirements.

8-KMaterial agreementApr 208-K — Item 1.01: Material agreement · Item 2.02: Earnings release · Item 7.01: Press release / Reg FD
AI summary

ALK (ALK) reported financial results for first quarter in an 8-K filed under Item 2.02. The filing includes key financial metrics including revenue, operating income, and per-share results. Results of operations disclosures under Item 2.02 typically accompany an earnings press release furnished as an exhibit, making them available concurrently with the earnings call. These filings provide the market with transparent, timely financial performance data for investment analysis.

3New insider — initial holdingsApr 23
+ 13 other (4 13Gs · 2 routine 8-Ks · 2 proxys · 2 8-Ks) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Insights Into Alaska Air (ALK) Q2: Wall Street Projections for Key Metricszacks.com·2d agoAlaska Air: The Loss Looks Worse Than The Businessseekingalpha.com·2d agoAlkane Resources Provides Notice of Release of Q4 FY2026 Operating & Financial Results Webcastglobenewswire.com·2d agoAlaska Air Eyes Higher Demand With Iceland Eclipse Servicezacks.com·4d agoEarnings Preview: Alaska Air Group (ALK) Q2 Earnings Expected to Declinezacks.com·4d ago

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Voices on X · last 7 days

No standout posts about $ALK on X in the last 7 days.

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