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AEAERO

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.

$AERO·$2.2B·Airlines, Airports & Air Services·Industrials
$15.02-3.5%YTD-30.1%1Y-25.0%
Mentions · last 7 days
2026-07-22: 74 posts2026-07-23: 83 posts2026-07-24: 59 posts2026-07-25: 48 posts2026-07-26: 81 posts2026-07-27: 102 posts2026-07-28: 95 posts548+20%
Price updated 5m ago·X counts updated 17h ago
AEAERO
$AEROGrupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.
$15.02-3.47%548 posts+20%
AI analysisFundamentalsVoices on X
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AI verdict & sentimentAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Top X posts

Today's AI verdict on what's driving $AERO, plus how loud the X conversation is and which way it's leaning.

AI analysis

TickerTalks’ read on the fundamentals and what’s driving the move.

Proven numbersStalledAI verdict · as of 2026-07-28

The move has stalled — likely just drifts unless something new shows up.

Mexican flag carrier with growing revenue but a Q2 EPS miss — the equity is trading at 4x FY26 EPS.

Grupo Aeroméxico is Mexico's flag carrier and the largest airline in Latin America by revenue. It re-emerged from Chapter 11 restructuring a few years ago and has been rebuilding scale — down 31% YTD but growing revenue in the mid-teens on the recovering LatAm-US travel corridor.

  • Revenue growth is real and consistent: Q1 revenue grew 14% YoY to $1.34B at a 20% gross margin, and Q4 2025 delivered 14.7% operating margin — this is a functioning airline earning real money outside the pandemic distortions.
  • The Q2 miss is what the tape is pricing: EPS of -$0.40 versus a -$0.37 estimate on the July 13 print, and revenue at $1.48B against an estimate around $1.51B — this is what triggered the recent leg lower toward $15.
  • Valuation is actually quite low: at $15.26 versus FY26 consensus EPS of $1.07 and FY27 EPS of $2.31, the implied forward P/Es are 14x and 7x respectively — cheap even if you discount LatAm airlines for cyclicality.
  • The float is limited and coverage thin: no beta or 200-day MA data available due to short trading history since restructuring, so this is not the sort of name where sell-side moves drive the price — insider board rotation (Myriam De la Vega Arizpe appointed director in June) is administrative, not directional.

The October 12 Q3 print is the next real datapoint — the Q3 revenue trajectory and any full-year guide restatement matter more than the EPS number, and any commentary on US-Mexico regulatory developments (the ATA/State Department flight-allocation dispute) matters especially. Note: the X chatter tagged $AERO is about the Aerodrome DeFi protocol (revenue-distributed DEX, token buybacks), not Aeroméxico the airline — the sentiment feed isn't tracking this equity.

What to watch: The Oct 12 Q3 print — Q3 revenue trajectory and any full-year guide restatement matter more than the EPS number. Watch for commentary on US-Mexico regulatory developments (flight-allocation disputes), which are the underappreciated risk for a Mexican flag carrier with heavy US route exposure.

On the calendar: 2026-10-12 — Q3 2026 earnings

sentiment wrong entity

X sentiment

What the X crowd is saying right now — descriptive, summarised from the day’s posts.

Bullish sentiment77 posts analyzed · as of 2026-07-28

Aerodrome is being framed as the #1 revenue-distributing DEX in 2026 and infrastructure for onchain liquidity on Base, with the Public Goods Fund executing a 336K AERO buyback bringing cumulative locked buybacks to nearly 200M AERO. Bulls point to bullish divergence on the 4H chart, a large volume spike, an inverse head-and-shoulders on the 3D, and the Predictive Allocation product that ports prediction-market efficiency to spot allocation. The CLARITY Act passing is cited as a fresh tailwind; there is virtually no bear voice in-corpus, only price impatience.

Read the AI verdict + X sentiment for $AERO

  • One-line verdict on what's driving the move — fundamentals, momentum, both, or an event
  • Next dated catalyst when there is one (earnings, deal closing, activist clock)
  • X crowd read with bullish/bearish call + post volume
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What it does

Plain-English summary of the business — what they sell and how they make money.

Mexico's flagship airline providing scheduled passenger and cargo flights on domestic routes and international destinations.

Industry overviewAI analysisGenerated by AI from underlying data

Where Airlines, Airports & Air Services sits in its cycle right now — and what that implies for $AERO.

Airlines, Airports & Air Services · Industrials

No material change from last week — two different time horizons.

What this means for $AERO

Neutral — Mexico's flagship airline providing scheduled passenger and cargo flights on domestic routes and international destinations; limited read-through from airlines, airports & air services macro dynamics to this specific revenue mix.

Industry benchmark

9-name peer basket
+35.3%YTD
-3.5%1Y

Fundamentals & catalyst

Profitability, valuation, and the next earnings event — at a glance, with rule-of-thumb signals.

Key ratios

P/E
-6.1How much investors are paying per dollar of profit the company actually earned in the last 12 months. Lower means the stock looks cheaper relative to earnings.~15–25 is typical for the S&P 500; high-growth names trade 30+; hyper-growth or speculative can be 100+ or negative.
ROIC
-44.0%What percentage return the business earns on every dollar of capital (equity + debt) deployed in operations. The cleanest measure of business quality.Above ~15% is high-quality; consistently above 25% suggests a real moat. Below the company's cost of capital is value-destroying.
Op margin
-28.9%Operating profit (after sales, marketing, R&D, and overhead but before interest and taxes) as a percentage of revenue. The clearest view of how well the underlying business is run.Mature business above 20% is healthy; software businesses can run 30%+; commodity / retail businesses operate in single digits.
FCF yield
-12.5%Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex) divided by the company's market cap. The cash-on-cash return you'd get owning the whole business at today's price.Above ~5% is attractive; below ~2% means you're paying up for growth. Capital-light businesses (software) run higher than capital-heavy ones (utilities).
P/S
0.5Same idea as P/E but per dollar of revenue. Useful for companies that aren't profitable yet, where P/E is meaningless.Under ~2 is cheap; software / SaaS often runs 8–15; well above 20 implies the market is pricing in very high future growth.
ROE
42.9%Net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity. Similar to ROIC but counts only the equity side.Above 20% is strong, but can be inflated by leverage — a heavily indebted company can show high ROE with weak underlying ROIC.
Gross margin
1.4%Revenue minus the direct cost of producing what was sold, as a percentage of revenue. The first read on whether the product is structurally profitable.Software / SaaS is typically 70%+; consumer goods 30–50%; commodity / hardware businesses can be under 20%.
D/E
-1.4Total debt divided by shareholders' equity. Measures how much the business runs on borrowed money versus owner capital.Under 1 is conservative; 1–2 is typical for mature businesses; over 2 is leveraged and more sensitive to interest rates.

Past earnings

QuarterReportedActualEstimateSurprise
Q2 2026Jul 13, 2026$-0.40$-0.37-8.1%
Q1 2026Apr 21, 2026$0.07$0.070.0%
Q4 2025Feb 17, 2026$0.75$0.46+63.0%
Next earningsMon, Oct 12·consensus EPS $0.51

Quarterly trend

QuarterRevenueYoYGrossOpEPSFCF
Q1 FY26$1.3B+14.0%19.6%10.7%$0.08$131.3M
Q4 FY25$1.4B+0.2%36.3%14.7%$1.10$223.8M
Q3 FY25$1.4B-4.4%25.8%17.5%$0.67$123.2M
Q2 FY25$1.3B-3.4%26.0%17.7%$0.47$121.7M

Forward consensus

4-year forecast · up to 5 analysts
FYRevenueRangeEPSRangeAnalysts
FY26$5.9B$5.9B – $6.0B$1.07$1.04 – $1.105
FY27$6.2B$5.9B – $6.4B$2.31$1.54 – $3.085
FY28$6.4B$6.1B – $6.6B$2.91$2.72 – $3.011
FY29$6.3B$6.0B – $6.5B$2.50$2.34 – $2.592

Setup & momentum

Volume, range, and moving-average position — the technical setup driving short-term moves.

Right now

Vol vs 30dToday's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.0.6×Today's traded share volume divided by the average over the prior 30 trading days. ≥3× signals unusual interest; below 1× is quiet.
52w rangeWhere the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.—Where the latest close sits between the 52-week low (0%) and high (100%). Above 80% is extended; below 30% is basing or in a downtrend.
vs 50d MALatest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.-5.5%Latest close vs the 50-day simple moving average. Positive = short-term trend is up.
vs 200d MALatest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.—Latest close vs the 200-day simple moving average. Positive = long-term trend is up.

Float & profile

FloatMid float · 136.4M shFree-float shares — the slice of issued stock actually available to trade. Lower buckets squeeze harder on a catalyst.Traded today0.1% of floatToday's volume as a percent of the free float. Above 5% on a single day is unusually high turnover for the available share count.β1.725-year weekly beta vs the S&P 500. Above 1.5 means the stock typically moves more than the index; below 0.8 moves less.

SEC filings

Material 8-K, 13D, S-3, and 424B5 events from the last 180 days — the filings that actually move the price.

Recent material filings

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 173
AI summary

Form 3 initial statement of beneficial ownership filed on June 17, 2026 by Myriam Guadalupe De la Vega Arizpe, a newly appointed director of Grupo Aeromexico (AERO), based in Mexico City. As AERO is a foreign private issuer under Rule 3a12-3(b), the reporting person is exempt from Sections 16(b) and 16(c) of the Exchange Act. No securities are reported as beneficially owned. This is a routine compliance filing with no material investment implications.

3New insider — initial holdingsJun 33
AI summary

Sam Han filed a Form 3 as a new director of OceanFirst Financial Corp (note: ticker 'AERO' in the queue appears to be a mismatch for this filing), with an event date of June 1, 2026 and reporting zero common shares beneficially owned as of the event date. Routine initial Section 16 beneficial ownership disclosure for a newly appointed board director.

3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
3New insider — initial holdingsMar 183
+ 24 other (11 3s · 7 6-Ks · 4 13Gs · 1 20-F) in window

Recent news

Latest headlines from major outlets, sourced and timestamped — context for whatever just moved.

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. (AERO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.com·15d agoGrupo Aeromexico Q2 Earnings Call Highlightsmarketbeat.com·15d agoAeroméxico Reports Unaudited Second Quarter 2026 Resultsglobenewswire.com·16d agoAeroméxico June 2026 Traffic Resultsglobenewswire.com·27d agoAeroméxico June 2026 Traffic Resultsglobenewswire.com·27d ago

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TickerTalks is a research tool, not financial advice. We surface social-attention data; we do not make stock recommendations. Past attention is not predictive of future price movements.

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